Steel Wind,
Are you really suggesting that beginning roleplayers have a problem answering the 'what do you do next' question? I've never experienced this.
Yes I am. It can be even more of a problem as people get older. They can often become embarassed far more easily about doing the "wrong" thing than a youngster would be. Yes. Really. Sometimes being 12 doth hath its advantages
Contrast this with Chapter 2 of Council of Thieves, which asks the players to act out a play! I've seen this roleplayed once, and it wasn't pretty. If such a game had been my first experience of D&D, I might have taken up golf.
I'm not arguing with you on this point. As I said in my original post, whether or not
Council of Thieves is the preferred AP to start with (of the reactive APs) is a very different question. I happen to agree with you.
Council of Thieves is not the best AP to start out the noobs with
There are seven other reactive APs to choose from of course.
SCAP, Age of Worms, Savage Tide all from the
Dungeon era, together with
Rise of the Runelords, Curse of the Crimson Throne, Second Darkness and
Legacy of Fire from the OGL phase of Paizo's APs.
If the OP is
absolutely insisting upon a PFRPG statted AP then I guess the options really are down to two. Or ... none, perhaps.
I also suggest that the new mini AP trilogy
Crypt of the Everflame,
Masks of the Living God and
City of Golden Death for a mini APath from 1st to 5th/6th level or so is a completely viable option -- and perhaps a little less ambitious than starting out new players on a massive year long AP. The modules are not without their problems, but a well prepared GM can see those coming if forewarned.
If
forced to choose between
Council of Thieves and
Kingmaker, I would agree that
Kingmaker probably makes the most sense.
Except... it's not finished yet and I would caution most GMs from starting to run an AP they have not read through to the end. It's not a disaster in the making if you don't -- but there is pretty much NO SCENARIO where the quality of the overall campaign is not improved with the additional GM foresight a finished AP provides.
End Result: There are more options available than an A or B, "heads or tails" choice here.