So I thought this may deserve its own thread rather than be lost in the file sharing argument. Here are my thoughts and opinions. Feel free to roast me...
I think you are ignoring one fact: The sheer volume of d20 garbage released.
If anything is causing the decline in RPG sales, it would be the large volume of material available. The variety of books and companies are killing sales. Other than WOTC, no other company can create a large enough fan base for d20 material. Non-d20 material can create a larger base because they are not competing with other companies plus the crazy PDF publishers in places like RPGnow.
Here are some of the reasons I see contributing to the decline of d20 and RPG sales:
1.) Market size vs. # of Producers: We have too many companies producing too many games for a limited audience.
2.) Older audience: No company, including WOTC, has found a way to market and sell to a younger audience. D&D is no longer in the public eye. It is more like the old anime of scifi clubs that you find on college campuses. People find the game by accident rather than design. Also, an older audience buys less books. They have limited time to play multiple games.
3.) New media: MMORPGs, CCGs, and PC games have eroded the existing audience and stolen the potential audience.
4.) Advertising: No one promotes the hobby. We promote it to ourselves.
5.) Shared experience: There is a lack of shared experience. Companies promote their IP, even WOTC. We see a lot of drive to pormote Eberron or FR, but very little to promote D&D.
6.) Standards or lack thereof: d20 publishers would have been wise to cooperate and create a list of standards for books such formats etc. I am surprised that we never saw a development company or editing company form. There is a need for such a centralized company that could promote standards or evaluate books.
7.) Development and release schedules: Too many companies announce books and then fail to release on schedule or in a timely manner. It sucks to wait a year for a book and a book is sometimes off your schedule by the time it is released.
8.) Know you audience: A lot of companies do not know their audience. They are run by gamers who produce what they think is cool rather than what people want. When I was working for a d20 company, this was a problem. We never attempted to ask what people wanted and then produce it. We kinda thought we knew and just wrote what we wanted to write.
