Decline of RPG sales

[WizarDru]

There are a rare few specific books that are the exception to the rule; such as “Magical Medieval Society: Western Europe.” (I forget the publisher – out of print anyways) which is outstanding and pretty much buries its WoTC competitor (for that type of book).

That would be Expeditious Retreat Press, and no, it's not. You can get it in print or PDF form. And I think we can't sell short the idea of PDF sales and their impact on non-Wotc publishers.

 

[Maggan]

There are a rare few specific books that are the exception to the rule; such as “Magical Medieval Society: Western Europe.” (I forget the publisher – out of print anyways) which is outstanding and pretty much buries its WoTC competitor (for that type of book).

What book would be the WotC equivalent?

/M

 

[buzz]

Older gamers, by contrast, find D&D to be a good entertainment value compared to other options; one of the many reasons that RPG sales don't correlate direclty with the economy.

I think the idea that the market is saturated has much more to do with the downturn in sales (if such is the case) much more than an economic factors.

I see your point, but I don't know if we can totally discount the effects of the economy. It affects the producers as well as the consumers. E.g., we saw how the US-Canadian exchange rate destroyed GoO, and the high price of gas is having an impact on everybody.

Basically, I think that it comes down to the RPG business always operating on the edge of profitability/sustainability. The problems Belen enumerated in the initial post have always been so. Booms and busts (e.g., d20), economic factors, oversaturation, etc. will always have an exaggerated effect on any company that is not WotC. There would need to be fundamental change in almost all aspects of the industry for this to ever not be true.

The fact that, as you rightly point out, spending on RPGs isn't always linked to the economy is what keeps it alive in general. As a luxury (i.e., a hobby), it can thrive even in bad times; people need their escape from the day-to-day.

 

[jgbrowning]

That would be Expeditious Retreat Press, and no, it's not. You can get it in print or PDF form.

He's right in that it's OOP in the distribution channel. I have a personal stash of about 30 at home that I'm selling down and that's it. I could have put the 30 back into the channel, but that would have just led to more headaches for the distributors and retailers.

joe b.

 

[JohnNephew]

And for JohnNephew:

I see what your talking about however how long as D&D v3.0 been out? Then v3.5? You are looking at raw numbers and not the entire business scenario.

The problem I face in these discussions is that when I present a "big picture" view, I get criticized for a lack of raw numbers or objective data. But then when I then present specific data, or a methodology for studying the market by analyzing verifiable facts (such as the rate of new releases as reported in distributor weekly receiving e-mails over an extended period of time), I get criticized for presenting raw data rather than the big picture. Hrm.

The decline in sales is actually expected – or should be.

I agree. There's a natural decline in sales as a product line ages; certainly that has long been the pattern in the RPG field, at least in going-on-twenty-years that I've been involved. Still, this thread is full of people who deny that there is any decline.

Well, whatever. People can believe whatever they like. I may care more about having an accurate picture of what's going on, since I have to make expensive decisions based on what I know and what I believe are the trends in the adventure game market. Since we just surpassed our 2004 total year's sales, and 2004 beat 2003, I'm pretty confident that I have a handle on these things, but I suppose it's possible that we've just been lucky, or that if we'd stayed focused on d20 (and made strategic changes to compete more aggressively in that category) we would have done just as well. Looking at the industry landscape today, even among the biggest survivors in the d20 space, I just don't believe it.

 

[buzz]

Well, whatever. People can believe whatever they like. I may care more about having an accurate picture of what's going on, since I have to make expensive decisions based on what I know and what I believe are the trends in the adventure game market. Since we just surpassed our 2004 total year's sales, and 2004 beat 2003, I'm pretty confident that I have a handle on these things, but I suppose it's possible that we've just been lucky, or that if we'd stayed focused on d20 (and made strategic changes to compete more aggressively in that category) we would have done just as well. Looking at the industry landscape today, even among the biggest survivors in the d20 space, I just don't believe it.

I'm happy that you made the decisions you did; otherwise I might not have a shiny new copy of Ars Magica 5e sitting on my game shelf.

Though, dang, you guys made some awesome d20 products. Dare I ask how Northern Crown is doing?

 

[JoeGKushner]

Well, whatever. People can believe whatever they like. I may care more about having an accurate picture of what's going on, since I have to make expensive decisions based on what I know and what I believe are the trends in the adventure game market. Since we just surpassed our 2004 total year's sales, and 2004 beat 2003, I'm pretty confident that I have a handle on these things, but I suppose it's possible that we've just been lucky, or that if we'd stayed focused on d20 (and made strategic changes to compete more aggressively in that category) we would have done just as well. Looking at the industry landscape today, even among the biggest survivors in the d20 space, I just don't believe it.

Heck I'm glad that we have Gloom and Happy Homes! A nice little card game even though it has some production problems. Any future sets forthcoming or other sets using a similiar layout? (the quality seems to have gone up in Happy Homes so I'm thinkin it's gone up again!)

Or how about a boxed set collection of Dungeoneer?

 

[SBMC]

What book would be the WotC equivalent?

/M

Well taht is why I called this one of the "rare few" - there is no equal to it in WoTC's library. The 3.0 Builders guide (or whatever it is called; can't recall) does not even come close to this book - while were at it I HIGHLY recomend it!

 

[SBMC]

That would be Expeditious Retreat Press, and no, it's not. You can get it in print or PDF form. And I think we can't sell short the idea of PDF sales and their impact on non-Wotc publishers.

Awesome! Thank you so much!!!! I was told it was out of print! Now my x-mas shopping woes are over!!!

 

[SBMC]

The problem I face in these discussions is that when I present a "big picture" view, I get criticized for a lack of raw numbers or objective data. But then when I then present specific data, or a methodology for studying the market by analyzing verifiable facts (such as the rate of new releases as reported in distributor weekly receiving e-mails over an extended period of time), I get criticized for presenting raw data rather than the big picture. Hrm.

You need both for any proper analysis – words to describe things and numbers as well

I agree. There's a natural decline in sales as a product line ages; certainly that has long been the pattern in the RPG field, at least in going-on-twenty-years that I've been involved. Still, this thread is full of people who deny that there is any decline.

That is not what I am talking about – I am saying that WoTC introduced a new gaming system that many current gamers adopted – as such sales were higher at the onset as those players bought the “foundational” products (three core books) then waned as the supplements came out and people cherry picked which ones they want.

In other words when v3.0/v3.5 came out EVERYONE who wanted to keep gaming had to buy the core books; sales go way up – a skew.

As far as 20 years; D20 along with 3.0/3.5 is a completely different product line than way back when. Professionally; I don’t see the real value of comparing the TSR products to the WoTC ones especially considering all of the social and economic factors over that many years. That is why most firms look at 5 years; not 20 unless they are in a very stagnant market.

Well, whatever. People can believe whatever they like. I may care more about having an accurate picture of what's going on, since I have to make expensive decisions based on what I know and what I believe are the trends in the adventure game market. Since we just surpassed our 2004 total year's sales, and 2004 beat 2003, I'm pretty confident that I have a handle on these things, but I suppose it's possible that we've just been lucky, or that if we'd stayed focused on d20 (and made strategic changes to compete more aggressively in that category) we would have done just as well. Looking at the industry landscape today, even among the biggest survivors in the d20 space, I just don't believe it.

Look at this website; look at WoTC website; at the very least there is enough long term interest to support a few gaming companies over the long haul. Also note that WoTC is owned by Hasbro; not a pushover company by any means – a top notch industry leader they are. If they thought gaming was dying I am sure they would strip themselves of it.

I personally don’t care if they break even or not as long as they produce the quality I want for my own recreational gaming experience. I also think that there are enough creative gamers with capital to spend out there that if WoTC went out of business someone (like Monte Cook & Mongoose) would easily pick up the pieces and keep the industry moving forward. Supply will always meet demand – whomever is the supplier or demander.