Rob Heinsoo said:Jonathan Tweet pointed out rolling 1d4 for the number of rounds it took for a breath weapon to recharge meant that there was a 40% chance the breath weapon would recharge each round.
Okay, so let me see if I am remembering my probability data correctly, because what they said there has me confused. The chance of rolling any number of a 4-sided die is 25%. The chance for each roll of the die is the same, not dependent on previous rolls. So the first time you roll the die there is a 25% chance to get any number, and the second time there's a 25% chance, and so on. Right so far?Peter Schaefer said:Technically, there's a 25% chance it recharges the first round, a 33% chance the second round, a 50% chance the next round, and a 100% chance the last round. It averages out to a 40% chance each round, which isn't the same thing. I'm picking nits, but getting the math right is my job.
This article made me mad. Namely because I was mistaken; I thought this article was going to expand on monster development for DMs creating their own monsters.
Instead it was just the designers talking about hwo they reimagined monsters. Which is great, when it was in Worlds and Monsters.
Don't know, it wasn't a rehash of "World & Monsters", and I didn't find it bad, even if it didn't contain much new information for me...
That's how the recharge mechanic works in 4e (albeit with a d6 instead). But a Dragon's breath weapon in 3e could be used again in 1d4 rounds--That is, roll a d4, and it's available that many rounds later. Thus the 25-33-50-100 thing. Using that system, a dragon's chance of breathing on any given round (assuming it breathes whenever it can) hovers around 40%.You know, I read something in this article that did not make sense to me. Let me throw in a couple of quotes to show you what I am talking about.
Okay, so let me see if I am remembering my probability data correctly, because what they said there has me confused. The chance of rolling any number of a 4-sided die is 25%. The chance for each roll of the die is the same, not dependent on previous rolls. So the first time you roll the die there is a 25% chance to get any number, and the second time there's a 25% chance, and so on. Right so far?
So, here is what baffles me. Where did Peter (or Jonathan Tweet for that matter) come up with the 25%, 33%, 50%, and 100% numbers? A roll of 1d4 is pretty straightforward mathematically. There's a 25% chance of rolling a 1. There is a 50% chance of rolling a 1 or a 2. There's a 75% chance of rolling a 1, 2, or 3. There's a 100% chance of rolling a 1, 2, 3, or 4. Am I missing something here?
I know it's been years since I took any probability classes, but I thought this one was fairly simple.
Eh. I was just expecting something that it wasn't, so it was a major disappointment for me.
That's an odd point of view, don't you think? Can it not be good in its own right?While I wouldn't call it major, I agree. The article certainly wasn't what I had expected, and thus a disappointment.
That's an odd point of view, don't you think? Can it not be good in its own right?
That's how the recharge mechanic works in 4e (albeit with a d6 instead). But a Dragon's breath weapon in 3e could be used again in 1d4 rounds--That is, roll a d4, and it's available that many rounds later. Thus the 25-33-50-100 thing. Using that system, a dragon's chance of breathing on any given round (assuming it breathes whenever it can) hovers around 40%.