Did WotC underestimate the Paizo effect on 4E?

[General Lopez]

I think WotC definitely underestimated the ill will generated by "firing" Paizo from Dragon and Dungeon.

This and pulling the PDFs did not help there cause. Anyone ever hear of Starwars galaxies? They upset a descent size portion of there fan base in 2005 by trying to make there game more like Warcraft, and it pretty much destroyed the game. It is still around, but only because Sony refuses to shut it down and admit what they did in 2005 was a mistake. They could never rebuild there fan base because they always had those disgruntled fans ready to tell everyone how bad the company/game is. The disgruntled fans of the game still attack it and Sony till this day though the internet.

The internet is a powerful weapon for word off mouth. One of the last things you want as a business in this day and age is to have disgruntled a descent portion of your fan base. These fans can easily attack you through the internet, one example look at the amazon reviews for instance. The 4E Players handbook has 88 1 star reviews. If I was a brand new player and was considering buying the book I would surely think twice based on all of those negatives reviews.

I agree that Wizards believed they would have some people upset with the new edition, but they should have been looking at ways to minimize the amount of those people. I believe they just added fuel to the fire with some of the poor business decisions they made outside of the new edition.

Paizo has given some of these disgruntled fans a company to rally around, and a second option for people who did not like the direction there game took with 4E.

 

[billd91]

I am one of those who thinks the PF Ap's are vastly superior than WotC's. However, the point of modules, for me and many others, is that we don't have the time or inclination to create our own. So your assertion (if I am reading it correctly) that there is a large segment of 4e players that buy PF AP's to CONVERT to 4e, seems counter intuitive to me.

And yet people do it, including Danniger on these boards. Sometimes, people do have time for some conversions and but want to maintain the general theme and content. I've converted several 1e adventures to 3e and am even doing a bit for PF. It takes a little time, but it's easy enough to do over lunch hours, other downtimes, a bit at a time.

 

[Azgulor]

How different would 4E be if WotC had brought Paizo on board? I am not saying that 4E is not selling good for them, but you have to admit that a good size percentage of there 3.5 base did not move on to the new edition. WotC in effect by not bringing Paizo on board created there biggest competition in the D&D market.

I believe this was one of their biggest mistakes in there handling of 4E. They now have a company that puts out some of the best products in the industry for what was their old D&D system. Paizo would have complimented them so well in 4E with Paizo's strength being adventures and WotC weakness being adventures.

Also while there are always people who do not move on to a new edition, how many more did not move on this time, because their system of choice was still going to be supported by one of the best companies in the gaming industry?

I don't think WotC underestimated Paizo, I think they didn't even factor them into their decisions. As Umbran stated, WotC was hoping to have 4e compete with other entertainment. Given their market share & the D&D brand, they felt few would really leave for good.

That said, I think WotC, in trying to change the RPG business model so extensively, took their eye off the ball. They created a competitor where previously they had a partner. Now I'm not suggesting that 4e isn't doing well nor am I saying that Pathfinder is a serious threat to D&D's dominance of the RPG market.

I am suggesting, however, that Paizo's business model has put the lie to the theory that adventures don't sell. The APs are Paizo's primary line, supplemented by the Companions, Chronicles, and now the RPG. What Paizo has shown is that adventures that are well-written & well-produced do sell. And guess what, all that top-shelf adventure & setting info drives interest in other Pathfinder & Golarion products.

When 4e launched and the GSL was released, I didn't see a very rosy picture for future RPG-related purchases aside from picking up the occasional OGL or d20 book I hadn't got to yet. Today, the number of Paizo products I want to buy continues to grow, as does the quality. I'm a very happy GM these days.


Best of luck to WotC with 4e. Whether they underestimated Paizo, flubbed the PR campaign for 4e, or wasted much goodwill by abandoning the OGL & introducing the GSL, or were willing to "let me go" as a customer, I can't say.

I can say things appear to be going marvelously for Paizo and I'm glad I've picked that horse to run with.

 

[IronWolf]

I agree, the ol' "Here's a big fat rulebook for you to read" strategy of recruiting new players is gradually going extinct. That said, don't underestimate the grassroots marketing of 4E, either; it may well be that Pathfinder is spreading well through the "hardcore" gaming community, but I would lay money on 4E selling a hell of a lot better among new and casual gamers.

I agree, there is certainly a grassroots community for 4e that acts as a new player's first exposure to a fantasy RPG. And I suspect that as you said, if you compare numbers 4e's numbers outnumber Pathfinder's numbers in new recruits.

 

[SteveC]

I think that this was a major mistake on WotC's part. As much as I love 4E, WotC simply can't write adventures that are as good as what Paizo does. I think they were under the impression that they could, and that it would be no big deal, but it is a seriously big deal to me.

For me, the best 4X adventure out there is War of the Burning Sky, which is produced by people here and not by WotC. After that, I rely on the opinions of people like Morrus who say some of the paragon adventures are more interesting, but I haven't bought them because of how poor the early ones were.

I've even stopped looking at Dungeon for the most part, because when I do I see nothing but "fight, skill challenge, fight, fight, the end." Strong and interesting modules do a lot to sell a game to people.

It's been a few years now, but my friends still talk about some of the adventures from Shackled City or Age of Worms. They're still talking about Burning Sky and how much fun the last battle we had was. Thunderspire Labyrinth? Keep on the Shadowfell? I'm not sure they could tell you anything about them. They do remember Pyramid of Shadows, but that's because it's where we stopped to start Burning Sky.

So if Paizo were onboard, I'd say that 4X would be a more vibrant edition. Of course I could do a similar thread about Pathfinder and rules (I'd say as good as Paizo is at adventures, their rules are about as good as WotC's adventures, which is to say not so good...). For me the Paizo does the adventures for WotC's rules is the perfect solution. I'm sad it didn't come to pass.

--Steve

 

[jaerdaph]

Actually, it has nothing to do with Pathfinder whatsoever and everything to do with them being paranoid about piracy of PDFs which was rife up to that point.

Only if you take Hasbro's Corporate Speak PR Machine at face value.

 

[Uder]

I honestly think if WotC was still WotC and not Hasbro, we'd be seeing their old pattern of buying Paizo out of business right about... yesterday.

 

[Wicht]

Something has to be for sale before it can be bought.

 

[doctorhook]

Something has to be for sale before it can be bought.

Anything's for sale for the right price, and who says Paizo wouldn't have been anyway? Then again, speculating about alternate histories is a fool's game, I suppose.

 

[Riley]

I would not be surprised to learn that Paizo has jumped from owning about 5% of the RPG market to somewhere between 25 and 40%.

Ummm.... I would be very suprised to hear anything like that. Heck, I'd be suprised if they even had 5% of the RPG market. And I'm a Paizo subscriber.