Eric Noah's Info

[Vigilance]

To some extent, I think you're right. But there is definitely a breed of consumers who will not jump on the bandwagon at the drop of a hat. Obviously WotC would be betting on the type of person who will gobble up anything and everything. I tend to pick and choose what I want--this adds up to about 3-4 books a year. Mostly this is because of either poor design, uninteresting subject matter, or lack of anything I can actually use. My gaming group tends to share books so that only one person ends up buying about half of the books we use.

Of course, but a new edition not only lets them sell you more books, it lets them sell you THE SAME BOOKS.

Even casual gamers will probably get hooked. Your GM gets the game and really likes it, so ok, you buy the new PHB (in several stages possibly from what we're hearing). And then of course you HAVE to have the Forgotten Realms campaign.

And then your GM leaves your group and it falls on you to run the game for a bit, which was going so well in 4e. So now you need the MM and the DMG (again in several stages).

Etc etc.

I think this process is why despite all the acrimony, the vast majority of gaming groups end up adopting the new game. D&D is social, and just like people will get the new EQ disk to go cavorting with their buds on Norrath's moon or wherever, they will get the new edition of D&D to play with their friends too.

 

[Spell]

Why don't other games follow the "revise, reset, resell" model? Like chess, poker, baseball, etc.? Wouldn't companies that make those products be better off revising the rules and selling new products to all the players every few years? Or is there an advantage to grognards always being able to teach the game to newbies, fathers-to-sons, etc.?

well, in some cases, the games are not profitable in themselves. i can't see how a company doing only affordable chessboards might thrive. on the other hand, if you also sell deluxe sets at "deluxe" prices, books on the history of the games, and so on...

baseball is not a game you can sell. on the other hand, you can sell bats, uniforms, and so on. so there is little need to upgrade the game.

also notice that the ability to spend very little to play these games makes them wildly known by the public, and immensely popular, too.

 

[DaveMage]

We did, but he and his wife came back.

Good one!

 

[JoeGKushner]

Minis are too expensive for kids to buy as is; I firmly believe that it is the multi-case-buying collectors who have been driving the market, and if they stop buying, the game is dead.

I can agree with pretty much everything you said but this. Warhammer would not be the #1 minis game is cost was top priority.

 

[EricNoah]

Can someone dig up the Ryan Dancey quote about "yesterday's customers" not factoring into tomorrow's plans? I think it fits here. 4E may not be "for us" -- it may be for those who don't already play, or gamers yet to be.

 

[solomoncane]

Can someone dig up the Ryan Dancey quote about "yesterday's customers" not factoring into tomorrow's plans? I think it fits here. 4E may not be "for us" -- it may be for those who don't already play, or gamers yet to be.

Best point yet.
How many have said they already have enough 3.5?
We're finished.

Now, where is that torch? .. I need to pass it.

 

[Pramas]

The only thing that is throwing me off is the fact that this isn't going to be announced at Gen Con. I think we've pretty much laid out an infallible argument that it is in development, right? Why wouldn't they announce it?

The moment a new edition is announced, sales of the current edition will suffer. The announcement will be timed to minimize damage to sales of forthcoming 3.5 products. As we know from the catalogs, WotC has a robust D&D schedule planned out well into 2007. That's why I don't think there'll make an announcement anytime soon.

 

[Mercule]

The question is whether C&C or OSRIC will get to market first with their large print edition.

Depends on who has more profit motive er... is a greedier bastard.

 

[solomoncane]

The moment a new edition is announced, sales of the current edition will suffer. The announcement will be timed to minimize damage to sales of forthcoming 3.5 products. As we know from the catalogs, WotC has a robust D&D schedule planned out well into 2007. That's why I don't think there'll make an announcement anytime soon.

[begin speculation]

The exception to this might be if they announced that 4.0 would be backwards compatible with 3.5. It could essentially be 3.6 repackaged and remarketed into smaller chunks as described earlier. That way, the new kids could get into it while the completists/collectors would buy it anyway.

[end speculation]

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

If I remember correctly, GW has been in a downward spiral of late.

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=qkchart&symbol=L^GAW

I haven't played in quite some time but I would like to know where the peak and the drop-off corresponds to their latest "reboot;" to LOTR; and to licenses like Dawn of War.

FWIW-- I believe the last "rules reboot" was in August 2004.

I could compare it to Hasbro in the same time period but it's not particularly instructive as Hasbro's holdings are so diverse (notwithstanding that most of Hasbro's revenues are driven by toys, including Star Wars).

And I can't think of a single other publicly traded game company at the moment...