Game Design: Good average chances of success for all situations?

[Aldarc]

I'm liking Travellers flat progression and 2D6 base more and more. Though, I will say I am a fan of bounded accuracy in D&D. Seems not only the deigning is easier this way, but also easier to understand and feel as a player/GM.

It works well for SWN/WWN* as well as games like PbtA.

* Though SWN/WWN uses d20 for combat rolls.

 

[payn]

It works well for SWN/WWN* as well as games like PbtA.

* Though SWN/WWN uses d20 for combat rolls.

Im playing a lot of Battletech these days and 2D6 is just classic. It's easy to understand why its been around so long.

The D20 is all over the place and even with B.A. its harder to get the odds on the fly as player and GM.

 

[GMMichael]

You can be sure I'll unearth this one myself from time to time, because the question what the average chance of success and failure (or how spanners get thrown in the works) for any given situation in a game should be to maximize player engagement and fun has kept me reading game design resources for years now and I'm still returning to pondering it all the time. It seems so central to this hobby yet so rarely directly addressed.

Save yourself the trouble: Las Vegas has already done the work for you. Look at the odds in Craps if you like 2d6. Or I'd look at slot machine payouts, more generally.

 

[Kariotis]

Save yourself the trouble: Las Vegas has already done the work for you. Look at the odds in Craps if you like 2d6. Or I'd look at slot machine payouts, more generally.

The latter I've actually read a fair amount about researching this. Lots of fascinating tidbits, but alas, I haven't come across anything that neatly translates to good random success curves for RPG design yet. Admittedly I'm bad at maths, so a lot of it either takes a lot of time to digest or just goes over my head.

 

[Committed Hero]

I would expect the baseline to be above 50%. Then, depending on the types of PCs and type of game, this would be adjusted further. If my character was an expert at something, like a professor or ninja, I would expect more successes. In a horror game, I like to think I'd be willing to accept worse chances, or worse consequences when I mess up.

A side issue involves whether your resolution system is a bell curve or not. The benefits of a bonus/penalty are fluid depending on where the likelihood of success falls.