D&D 4E Heavy Concrete Data on 4e's Skill Challenge System (long, lots of tables)

Stalker0

Legend
Asmo74 said:
So unless you completely stuff up the first roll and the DM decides with such failure furthering the skill challenge is now moot. i.e. in a diplomacy challenge and the first roll is a 1 and the DM decides you've just accidently called the local nobles ancestry into question and you're lucky your not in the dungeon... unfriendly to hostile, therefore skill challenge over time to make a hasty retreat before he calls the guards.

Therefore each successive result stands by itself.

So could you elaborate on how you come to your percentages?

Cheers, Rob

I'm not sure if I completely understand your question. Are you asking if the model assumes each die roll is independent of other die rolls?

The answer to that is yes. The model assumes players continue to make skill checks until either they hit the required number of failures or the required number of successes. Each die roll is independent of previous rolls that have occurred.
 

log in or register to remove this ad


Wulf Ratbane

Adventurer
saitir said:
Yes, you have to make many off the cuff decisions, bonuses here and there and reward the party one way or another along the way and sure you need some good rolls (rolling a bunch of 1s in a row can't really be allowed for in any system with dice), but it really created an organic story telling experience that left the players with a great little chunk of story. For those saying 'yeah well, you just had to change things as you go 'cause the system is broken' I say not true. You change things as you go because if you don't, your forget the reason for the rules... To help have fun and generate a story.

I'm a convert.

Don't believe the raw maths against actual experience.

It rears its ugly head once again. "The rules work just fine as long as you don't use them."
 

saitir

First Post
Wulf Ratbane said:
It rears its ugly head once again. "The rules work just fine as long as you don't use them."

How exactly did you come to that conclusion?

I think you're all making a significant mistake when you read the rules. The table of DCs all this math is based on isn't actually absolute. In the text above the table (p.42 last sentence in 1st column)

'A quick rule of thumb is to start with a DC of 10 (easy), 15 (moderate), or 20 (hard) and add one-half the character's level.'

Then you get to add the +5.

This tells us a few things about that table.

First you can see that the values they've placed in the table are just a sample of DCs to go against the damage values.

Second, you can see the real difficulties without much complex math. The +1/2 level and +5 DC map directly to how skills are added up (1/2 level and +5 for being trained). So the only thing that really matters in a skill test is your stat, racial and feat bonus. Checks are easier for people who are trained (duh!). So any DCs are always: easy 10/15, moderate 15/20, hard 20/25 (second value if you're not trained). Your bonus is going to be in the region of +2 - +6. So (and yes in rough values) you've a 75% chance of success if you're trained for an easy, 50% for a moderate, 25% for a hard. Subtract 25% from those if you're not trained until you only succeed on a 20 if you're untrained and trying something hard.

So it comes down to seeing the age old problem. People who see 'Ahah, a table I must use it!' and people who actually read the rules and understand what it means 'ah, those sorts of values? Ok! This time I think A 17 is the right DC though, and this time a 12. Which is actually what 'rule of thumb' means. Mostly it'll see you right, but feel free to ignore it when it doesn't.

And finally, when I ran the complex skill challenge I did indeed use the straight up DCs from table +5. Sure my players got some lucky rolls, sure they had to *gasps* role-play to get +2 here and there. Did I ignore the rules? Hell no. I used them as I know they were intended. One thing to remember about probability/randomness is that you're unlikely to get an even spread in any short sampling. So sure, this time around we got good rolls. And next time we might get all bad rolls. And if we have a fair spread, it might lead to failures. And no, you can't base a system around 'sometimes it'll seem like it works'. But after breaking down the DCs to how they're made up, seeing how they relate to the way your skill scores are made up, the probabilities are exactly as hard as you want them to be. After all, if characters aren't playing to their strengths, or the DM is using skills none of his players have characters trained in, then things are going to go bad.

*chuckles* And now I wait to be told I'm delusional and missed the point. But I always trust real experience, actual understanding of rules intent (or in this case RAW) rather than people getting neurotic over rules sytems that they haven't played extensivley (Or at all in some cases). The rules have been out officially for just over a week now. How much to we really know about usage? Before you dump and rewrite a rule system, actually try it out for a while first.
 
Last edited:

grymckr

First Post
saitir said:
*chuckles* And now I wait to be told I'm delusional and missed the point. But I always trust real experience, actual understanding of rules intent (or in this case RAW) rather than people getting neurotic over rules sytems that they haven't played extensivley (Or at all in some cases). The rules have been out officially for just over a week now. How much to we really know about usage? Before you dump and rewrite a rule system, actually try it out for a while first.

So you'll take anecdotal evidence over stats then? Good to know. Hope to play cards with you sometime.
 

saitir

First Post
grymckr said:
So you'll take anecdotal evidence over stats then? Good to know. Hope to play cards with you sometime.

No, but I'll take experience and actual /understanding/ of the rules over fundamentally flawed stats everyday.
 
Last edited:

grymckr

First Post
saitir said:
No, but I'll take experience and actual /understanding/ of the rules over fundamentally flawed stats everyday.

You have run a skill challenge, and experienced a certain result. Other people have run skill challenges, and experienced certain other results. You have certain intuitions about skill challenges (what you describe as an /understanding/ of the rules), others have certain other intuitions. How are we to determine whose intuitions are correct, and whose results will be more probable? We use math.

If you allege that the statistical analysis is fundamentally flawed somehow, then make the case. What assumptions have been made that are flawed? (Note that the analysis of the system in the OP incorporates just about every kludge you've used yourself.)
 

keterys

First Post
Dunno if this got linked yet, but it's pretty relevant:
http://forums.gleemax.com/showpost.php?p=16114921&postcount=11
(Quoting Mearls)
Hey all,

We had a meeting about skill challenges on (cue creepy music) Friday the 13th. We came to a few conclusions on what happened, what our intent is, and what we're going to do about it.

The system went through several permutations as we worked on it, and I think there are some disconnects between the final text, our intentions, and how playtesters and internal designers use skill challenges.

So, we've been listening and reading threads and figuring out some stuff on our end.
 

keterys said:
Dunno if this got linked yet, but it's pretty relevant:
http://forums.gleemax.com/showpost.php?p=16114921&postcount=11
(Quoting Mearls).
I hope they tell us something soon, as I'd rather wait before designing my first skill challenges if it's not too long. Heck, even the skill challenges in the Heathen adventure seemed very nonstandard compared to the DMG (I don't just mean DCs, I mean the whole way it works in terms of successes and failures).
 

Wulf Ratbane

Adventurer
keterys said:
Dunno if this got linked yet, but it's pretty relevant:
http://forums.gleemax.com/showpost.php?p=16114921&postcount=11
(Quoting Mearls)
Hey all,

We had a meeting about skill challenges on (cue creepy music) Friday the 13th. We came to a few conclusions on what happened, what our intent is, and what we're going to do about it.

Sheesh. I really wish Mearls would actually try the rule system out for a while first before he dumps and rewrites it.
 

Remove ads

Top