How big's the RPG market?

How big is the RPG market? Pretty damn tiny, is the answer. As of 2016/2017 it's about $35m in size, according to ICv2. That's of a Hobby Games market currently worth just over a billion dollars. The RPG segment is a mere 2.9% of the overall Hobby Games market, which includes boardgames, miniatures, hobby card games, and collectible games. Of course, the competition for RPGs isn't just boardgames or card games, it's entertainment; and on that scale, the RPG market is a tiny niche of the Hobby Games market, which is a tiny niche of the global entertainment market. Note that these figures are US and Canada only, and include Kickstarter sales.

UPDATE: the below $1.19B figure has since been revised upwards by ICv2 to $1.4B in 2017, with an RPG segment of $45M.

The hobby games market as a whole is the size of one major movie blockbuster. The global film industry market was 38.3 billion in 2015. Putting that into perspective:

The video game industry is even bigger, at $91B in 2016.

However, the entire hobby games market is growing year on year. Just look at the latest stats: the market has grown from $700M in 2013 to $1.19B in 2016/2017. Of that, RPGs have more than doubled in size, from $15M to $35M. Boardgames have over tripled in size. There is definitely a tabletop boom going on right now, powered by a number of factors ranging from Kickstarter, to the introduction of US West Coast media (shows like Tabletop and outlets like Geek & Sundry have helped to mainstream tabletop gaming), and more.

Data from ICv2 and other sources.

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[Morrus]

For a given tv show or movie on tv or streaming, probably only one person in a household ‘pays’ for it. The rest just join them on the couch to watch it.

Boardgames, too. One person usually has it.

 

[Ted Serious]

The vast majority of players buy nothing for the game. Further, of those who do buy something, the vast majority buy the PHB and then nothing else.

(WotC estimate ~15M players in North America, while the PHB has probably sold somewhere between 1 and 2 million copies. Further, WotC's aspiration is that each of their supplements will shift 100k units.)

I am still having trouble understanding how this all adds up.

If a typical group is a DM and 5 players, and they go through 1 AP a year, shouldn't APs be selling a lot more than 100k. If there are 15 million playing D&D.

 

[delericho]

I am still having trouble understanding how this all adds up.

If a typical group is a DM and 5 players, and they go through 1 AP a year, shouldn't APs be selling a lot more than 100k. If there are 15 million playing D&D.

Presumably the answer is that they don't get through 1 AP a year - either they play Adventurer's League modules, or they homebrew their adventures, or something of that sort.

 

[Morrus]

I am still having trouble understanding how this all adds up.

If a typical group is a DM and 5 players, and they go through 1 AP a year, shouldn't APs be selling a lot more than 100k. If there are 15 million playing D&D.

Not all players keep up with that schedule. You’re counting “dedicated weekly D&D players” not “total D&D players”.

I’m a D&D player as are the 6 others in my group. The only AP of the modern set we’ve played in full is CoS. We’ve also played some AiME and homebrew.

 

[Emerikol]

I think money wise there is no disputing your data Morrus. I wish we had data on hours played. I think rpg's would fare far better but still not beat movies or video games.

One major problem with RPG's is their inability to monetize customer satisfaction. For example, if we had to pay 5 dollars to WOTC every time we played in a D&D session, a lot of us would pay it. Suppose we get the books for free as part of that deal. If we did that, the amount of money D&D made would skyrocket. A lot of people do their own worlds and just buy the books on occasion. Now WOTC has tried to monetize this in the past and failed. So I don't have a solution but the amount of entertainment provided by RPG companies for the money they make is really low. So if happiness generated was a measure, we'd fare well against board games I believe. We'd also bring people together in aways a lot of hobbies don't (e.g. video games) which is a societal positive.

 

[Ted Serious]

Not all players keep up with that schedule. You’re counting “dedicated weekly D&D players” not “total D&D players”.

I’m a D&D player as are the 6 others in my group. The only AP of the modern set we’ve played in full is CoS. We’ve also played some AiME and homebrew.

What is the criteria for plays D&D. Are 15 million people playing D&D 5e on a regular basis. Or have 15 million people ever played any version of D&D. 15 million expect to play D&D in the next twelve months. What about Pathfinder, D&D in all but name. What about D&D games that aren't Pencil & Paper RPG, like Pool of Radiance or Neverwinter Nights.

I it's 15 million 5e D&D players and only 100k customers for supplements, why keep printing books 95% of your fans don't want to buy.

 

[aramis erak]

Not really? That's how games work in general outside of the video game, miniature or collectable gaming spheres.

If we sit down to play Settlers of Catan it's rare that everyone at the table owns a copy of Settler's of Catan. Generally only one or two of us own a copy, and we're only going to be playing with one of them anyway so it doesn't matter. The other 3 players at the table aren't "freeloaders" if they don't own their own copy of the game - they're necessary ingredients for me to get my enjoyment out of the one copy of the game that I've purchased.

Likewise if I'm playing D&D with 4 other people at the table and I as the DM own a ton of books but only one of the others owns a Player's Handbook and the other 3 are using characters made with the Basic Rules, that doesn't make the other 3 "freeloaders" - it makes them necessary ingredients for me to get my enjoyment out of the one copy of the books that I've purchased. You can't play the game without other people after all.

Also think about that 15 million people figure for a bit. That's everyone who plays D&D, which I suspect means all editions and not just 5e, but for the sake of the argument assume it's just all 5e players. That 35 million figure is an annual figure (tracked from 2016/2017). So even if that 15 million figure were all 5e D&D players and even if every 5e player owns a Player's Handbook, then many of them would STILL have contributed $0 to that $35 million figure because they made that one time purchase in 2014 or 2015 and haven't bought anything since. Are they freeloaders? They've paid for a book but still aren't going to be included in that number.

The upshot of this is that there are far, far more D&D players than there are D&D customers. (But again that's something that's true for most games).

That also leaves out that, like my daughter is doing, many are using just the Basic Rules and/or the SRD - both of which are free - to play D&D without paying, but they help create the customer base.

And then, there's the issue that D&D as a tabletop RPG is the inspiration for a much larger D&D brand market; D&D video games have, in the past, sold many more units than the RPG, but the RPG and its designers drive the videogame design sequences.

Also, the overall market is larger than WOTC's $35 M... Adding just a year's worth of KS projects... well, over on RPGG, there's a list of 2017 RPG-KS, and page 1 of 24 sums up (excluding meetups, accessories, and comic collections) over $200 K and over UK £100 K...

There is a lot of money flowing.

And that's not counting the really big ones. 2016, the top 5 RPG kickstarters were $3.5 M or so.

1. 7th Sea Second Edition - $1,316,813; complete
2. Invisible Sun - $664,274; complete
3. Robert E. Howard's Conan Roleplaying Game - $622,286 (£436,755); complete
4. PolyHero Dice - Wizard Set - $575,926; complete
5. Rifts for Savage Worlds - $438,076; complete

And for 2017... about $2.1 M...

Okay, two things. First, this is updated to reflect the insanity that is Numenera.

1. Numenera 2: Discovery and Destiny - $845,258; complete
2. The Wyrmwood Magnetic Game Master Screen - $387,819; complete
3. Torg Eternity - $355,992; complete
4. Forbidden Lands - Retro Open-World Survival Fantasy RPG - kr 2,827,818 ($347,355); complete
5. Elder Dice - Lovecraftian themed dice for all tabletop games - $261,886; complete

Second, we're at the same number of pages as last year's tracking, so I think that it's very likely we'll see more than the 547 from then come the end of this year.

And that's not counting over the counter sales on those projects, nor electronic sales after KS completion (via OBS, Here, Backerkit, et)...


Heck, my roughly $500 spent in 2017 included no WOTC materials that I'm aware of. 2018 looks like it's going to be similar. My 15 regulars over that time have bought some $150 in dice, and $300 in books, half of which was for other GM's D&D games...

 

[Umbran]

Presumably the answer is that they don't get through 1 AP a year - either they play Adventurer's League modules, or they homebrew their adventures, or something of that sort.

Or they just play more slowly. I have a group that plays once a month, for a few hours each time. One AP will last me multiple years.

 

[Jhaelen]

Not all players keep up with that schedule. You’re counting “dedicated weekly D&D players” not “total D&D players”.

Indeed. Our group started playing 'Rise of the Runelords' in March 2017. In our next session in about two weeks, our party will travel to Magnimar, i.e. we're still in the middle of the second module "The Skinsaw murders".

We barely manage to play monthly and our DM is extending the campaign by creating short 'interludes'. TBH, I'm not sure if we'll ever make it through the entire AP

 

[MichaelSomething]

And then, there's the issue that D&D as a tabletop RPG is the inspiration for a much larger D&D brand market; D&D video games have, in the past, sold many more units than the RPG, but the RPG and its designers drive the videogame design sequences.

Also, the overall market is larger than WOTC's $35 M... Adding just a year's worth of KS projects... well, over on RPGG, there's a list of 2017 RPG-KS, and page 1 of 24 sums up (excluding meetups, accessories, and comic collections) over $200 K and over UK £100 K...

There is a lot of money flowing.

GTA 5 made about 2 billion in sales in 2014

Minecraft sold 100 million copies.

Do I need to list more examples?

To give WOTC credit, D&D did outsell Stardew Valley (at least a million copies at $15 a pop).