D&D 5E I think we can safely say that 5E is a success, but will it lead to a new Golden Era?

[Saplatt]

I asked Mike this very question. He stated that to his knowledge 3.0 (not 3.5) hit this rank back in the day. He pointed out that back in 2000 Amazon had a lot less sales volume. So evidence is that 5e is outselling (for now) other editions of D&D.

And there we are. Thank you.

 

[Jester David]

"Spokesperson for Wizards of the Coast" isn't good enough for you?

No.
"Spokesperson" could be "Billy from the Mailroom", "Frances the MtG person who overheard something" or "anonymous marketing person trying to generate hype".
And without a link to the original quote, all we have are vaguely remembered phrasings that have grown fuzzy over six years.

By the way, the article I cited noted that the corebook set for 4E reached #5 on Amazon's best seller list in May of 2008, which was the highest ranking I'd seen to date. So, using the wayback machine, I looked at the best seller figures for the period immediately before and through the available dates two weeks after that date.

The core bookset special for 4E (which sold for $57 and change on Amazon) did peak at #3 on the best seller list on June 1, 2 and 4th. That's higher that anything I've seen to date ... but still not #1.

Okay, so two products with the PHB were in the top ten: #5 and #3, dividing sales. Together, the sales could arguably have hit #1.
So the 5e PHB has to hover around #1 for at least three days to be comparable to the 4e PHB.

(Nice researching btw. Have some xp.)

 

[Jester David]

Advanced Class Guide (just days from release): #6,654 in books.

It should be noted that Amazon regularly messes up Paizo's release dates and has the ACG scheduled for September 2nd. So lots of people are likely forgoing amazon and shopping elsewhere, dropping the rank.

 

[Haffrung]

There's no question it's huge: the vast majority of people who ever played D&D never played it again.

But just because the market of 40-somethings who found a basic set under the X-mass tree in 1983 is theoretically huge doesn't mean 5e is going to successfully tap it. The OSR movement has been trying to do so for years.

Most lapsed gamers are completely oblivious to the OSR. If you don't hang on RPG forums (and why would you if you're a lapsed D&D player), how would you even know games like Labyrinth Lord and Dungeon Crawl Classics exist? The OSR is an online forum community whose enthusiasm masks the fact that it has a negligible commercial presence in the already niche RPG market.

Essentials tried it with a Basic Set that re-cycled that same 'Red Box' cover (the single biggest-selling D&D product ever).

Too little too late. But they were on the right track, which is why 5E is following the same design and marketing principles as Essentials: more familiar and easier to get into.

3e's "back to the dungeon" slogan was aimed at old-school players.

And it worked. A huge element in 3E's success was drawing back lapsed players.

D&D has been chasing lapsed players ever since the fad ended. You do see some come back every once in a while. Some with 3e, some with 4e, some with Essentials, some with OSR games, some with Pathfinder....

...but a bunch of pre-orders for a deeply-discounted book on Amazon spiking an hourly ranking doesn't indicate 5e's finally brought back the fad from the 80s.

5E doesn't have to bring back the fad from the 80s in order to sell lots of books. It just has to draw in more lapsed gamers than 4E did, along with being easier for new gamers to get into. Those two cohorts are where the growth is, not winning over Pathfinder fans.

 

[Saplatt]

It should be noted that Amazon regularly messes up Paizo's release dates and has the ACG scheduled for September 2nd. So lots of people are likely forgoing amazon and shopping elsewhere, dropping the rank.

That's true, and it's also true that Paizo probably makes fewer Amazon sales to start with, due to smaller discounts and the fact that the books and pdfs are usually available on their own website at least a couple weeks before Amazon gets them.


Still, I can't help wondering whether they are looking at their own downward spiral in terms of hardback sales. It's the same thing Mearls has already mentioned in connection with 5E - that there's a law of diminishing returns with each additional book you publish in support of any given edition, and sooner or later you reach the point where the diminishing sales don't justify further production.


I'll be very shocked if we see a release schedule for 2015 that comes anywhere close to the pace they established in 4E.


Getting back to the original question, if there's going to be a "golden age" or big boom in the market, I think it's more likely to come from development of DungeonScape and it's interplay with video and board gamers.

 

[Ballbo Big'uns]

5th edition PHB is currently #1 in books on Amazon.

#1 in ALL books. Not just gaming. Not just sci-fi/fantasy. All books.

 

[Saplatt]

5th edition PHB is currently #1 in books on Amazon.

#1 in ALL books. Not just gaming. Not just sci-fi/fantasy. All books.

I think you've been ninja'd.

 

[Ballbo Big'uns]

I think you've been ninja'd.

This just in! Riots in Ferguson, MO!

Also, 12 Years A Slave wins 2014 oscar for best picture!

 

[prosfilaes]

Pathfinder is still alive and presumably making a decent profit, but "strong?"

Amazon ratings: Core Rulebook #3,358 in books.

What hobby did you think you were in again? That's huge in roleplaying terms. There have only been a handful of roleplaying lines that could turn out multiple books a month in the history of the hobby.

4E is dead and gone, but it probably returned a higher profit during its overall lifespan.

And I should care why? Number of different books published for the line, number of players, those are interesting to me. As a player, profit doesn't mean anything to me, especially when it doesn't correlate to the game staying in print.

 

[Saplatt]

What hobby did you think you were in again? That's huge in roleplaying terms. There have only been a handful of roleplaying lines that could turn out multiple books a month in the history of the hobby.

And yet #1 is meaningless?

As a player, profit doesn't mean anything to me, especially when it doesn't correlate to the game staying in print.

Sooner or later it will, but that's not my point, which I've stated repeatedly.