ICv2 Reports Disappointing Year For Hobby Games Channel: TTRPGs Down, D&D Declines 30%

According to ICv2, 2023 was a tough year for hobby game sales. The US and Canada market increased by just 1%, which was less than the rate of inflation, growing from $2.86 billion in 2022 to $2.89 billion in 2023.

The hobby game sales channel is defined as specialist game and card stores--it doesn't include Amazon, direct sales, etc. It does include Kickstarter.

Top Hobby Channel TTRPGs (2023)

1. Dungeons & Dragons (WotC)
2. Pathfinder (Paizo)
3. Cyberpunk Red (R. Talsorian)
4. World of Darkness (Renegade Game Studios)
5. Starfinder (Paizo)
6. Warhammer 40K (Cubicle 7)
7. Marvel Multiverse Roleplaying (Marvel)
8. Kobold 5E Books (Kobold Press)
9. Call of Cthulhu (Chaosium)
10. Pirate Borg (Free League)

The only two categories to grow in 2023 were collectibles and miniatures. All other categories--board games, card games, and roleplaying games--were down. ICv2 reports a 30% hobby store sales decline for Dungeons & Dragons specifically, citing the impending new edition and lackluster movie performance, and the tail end of a pandemic-fuelled high; they also report that while the OGL crisis of last year impacted some lifestyle gamers, newer players as a whole were oblivious to the situation. The other important element ICv2 mentioned was D&D's increasing move to digital, which impacted retail sales.

Older D&D players, says ICv2, are also migrating to other games, with Pathfinder as one of the major beneficiaries.

The last 6 years has seen much larger growth rates--partly fuelled by the pandemic--ranging from 10% to 30%. 2022 saw a 7% growth over 2021. Despite the small increase, 2023 represents the 15th year of growth for the overall market. ICv2 does predict a market decline in 2024, though.

ICv2 conducts periodical surveys and speaks to publishers, distributors, and retailers, along with publicly available company information and Kickstarter data.

 

[Wolfpack48]

Unless the SRD for 5.5 hits CC, I'm not buying anything Wizards.

Is this due to the previous SRD dustup? I wonder about the percentage of players who are paying attention to SRD news.

 

[Argyle King]

That would require deflation, which can be really, really bad for the economy and is not something anyone should want.

Even with inflation returning to "normal" levels, food and housing still remain high.

Additionally, even if it has returned to a "normal" level, that still doesn't erase that the last few years were uncharacteristically higher -which means that even a "normal" increase in cost of living this year still puts CoL at a price higher than it should be by this point in time.

To give further insight: I work with an agency that coordinates housing through HUD. A lot of what I do involves calculations of income and assets. In the US, the federal govt has changed the definition of "low income" for 2024.

Anecdotally, one of the biggest hardships for the families I work with and interview has been the costs associated with food.

I certainly agree that part of that is "shrink-flation" as well, but even I notice that the same amount of money leaves more empty space in my cart. I especially notice that as I shop to prepare for the upcoming weekend's holiday meal.

As various ttrpg companies lean more toward products made for collectors, higher priced specialty products, and marketing to affluent influencers; it becomes harder for the average family or newly interested pre-player to justify one of those purchases* over keeping food on the table.

I still believe that, overall, ttrpgs are a relatively cheap form of entertainment, but some of the contemporary marketing is at a crossroads with the realities of the current market.

*edited to fix a typo

 

[Reynard]

Is this due to the previous SRD dustup? I wonder about the percentage of players who are paying attention to SRD news.

Single digit percentages, probably, but that's not a reason to back off. WotC hasn't earned back my dollars either.

 

[Wolfpack48]

You are a perfect person for me to ask, then:

You've obviously made the jump without any such products, but what impact, if any, would a BG3-themed starter box, BG3 dice sets for each character or a BG3 book that collected locations, magic items, etc. from the game for use in 5E have impacted your group? Would it have helped them jump over easier? Would they have wanted to have visited Moonrise Towers, etc., in 5E? Would it have just been fun things to pick up, but not important to the actual game?

It's a good question. Actually a bit surprised there hasn't been more BG material released as crossover from the computer game.

 

[Scribe]

Is this due to the previous SRD dustup? I wonder about the percentage of players who are paying attention to SRD news.

That and I have not liked the direction since Tashas.

 

[Reynard]

It's a good question. Actually a bit surprised there hasn't been more BG material released as crossover from the computer game.

Yeah. I get it initially. No one knee what the reception would be. But they should have a book in the hopper and announced by now, probably with Mearls as developer since he was the liaison. But he's gone and no product is announced so they obviously are focused on different things.

 

[Wolfpack48]

Baldur's Gate is a well-recognized name in both the PC-gaming and RPG circles. A BG book title would jump I would think - especially a good combo background and adventure book.

 

[Reynard]

Baldur's Gate is a well-recognized name in both the PC-gaming and RPG circles. A BG book title would jump I would think - especially a good combo background and adventure book.

Hell, they could have put out one of those Prima style deluxe game guides with a 5E rules Appendix and it probably would have broke every record for that kind of book ever.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Yeah. I get it initially. No one knee what the reception would be. But they should have a book in the hopper and announced by now, probably with Mearls as developer since he was the liaison. But he's gone and no product is announced so they obviously are focused on different things.

A BG3-themed starter set would have been really easy, second only to themed dice sets that were just appropriate colors (fiery red with black numbers for Karlach, etc.).

The concept art is already available and copious from the BG3 game development process. The rulebook could be the exact same one from the Stormwreck Isle boxed set.

They just need to get a small team to crank out a new adventure and that's really not that hard for an adventure that size, especially since they'd likely want to do a similarly structured adventure to Stormwreck (start off with a set encounter, go to an area with choices for what to do when, and end up in a final set encounter) in the region from Act I from BG3 (so you could reuse all the art).

They'd likely outsource the adventure creation even if they weren't grinding on the 2024 books, so it's not a huge additional workload over what they're already doing. And we know that Target and other retailers want new boxed sets periodically anyway.

It is, like with so many other "why isn't WotC doing this?" projects, just something they're not interested in doing, for whatever reason.

 

[Wolfpack48]

A BG3-themed starter set would have been really easy, second only to themed dice sets that were just appropriate colors (fiery red with black numbers for Karlach, etc.).

The concept art is already available and copious from the BG3 game development process. The rulebook could be the exact same one from the Stormwreck Isle boxed set.

They just need to get a small team to crank out a new adventure and that's really not that hard for an adventure that size, especially since they'd likely want to do a similarly structured adventure to Stormwreck (start off with a set encounter, go to an area with choices for what to do when, and end up in a final set encounter) in the region from Act I from BG3 (so you could reuse all the art).

They'd likely outsource the adventure creation even if they weren't grinding on the 2024 books, so it's not a huge additional workload over what they're already doing. And we know that Target and other retailers want new boxed sets periodically anyway.

It is, like with so many other "why isn't WotC doing this?" projects, just something they're not interested in doing, for whatever reason.

Heck they could just do 20 pages of adventure hooks, and I'd buy it.