Is D&D Entering a New Golden Age?

Sales of the hobby game market are on the rise, with tabletop role-playing games increasing along with other tabletop games. With a new Wizards of the Coast CEO in place who values Dungeons & Dragons as much as Magic: The Gathering and a movie on the horizon, we're starting to see signs that D&D is doing very well indeed.

Picture courtesy of Unsplash.​

The Hobby Market is Doing Well​

ICv2 reported that the hobby market is hitting eye-popping numbers:

Sales of hobby games in the U.S. and Canada topped $1.4 billion in 2016, reaching $1.44 billion, according to a new estimate compiled by ICv2 and reported in Internal Correspondence #92. That’s a 21% total growth rate over 2015, with rates of change ranging from 17% for the slowest-growing category to 29% for the fastest-growing. Growth rates were pulled higher by more rapid growth of hobby games in the mass channel, especially in collectible, board, and card & dice games.

Of those categories, collectible games grew the most, followed by hobby board games and role-playing games. Role-playing games increased the most, by 29%, from $35 million to $45 million. Of the top five RPGs, Dungeons & Dragons Fifth Edition and Pathfinder retained their first and second position, respectively.

Ancillary RPG markets are doing well too, like non-collectible miniatures. Non-collectible miniature sales were up from $175 million to $205 million, a 17% increase. Star Wars X-Wing led the charge, followed by Warhammer 40K and D&D's Nolzur's Marvels Minis, high-quality unpainted miniatures produced by Wizkids.

Unsurprisingly, Hasbro is benefiting from this bump.

Hasbro's Games Are Doing Well​

Hasbro topped $5 billion in revenue for the first time:

Net revenues for the full-year 2016 increased 13% to $5.02 billion versus $4.45 billion in 2015. Excluding a negative $61.0 million impact from foreign exchange, 2016 revenues increased 14%. As reported net earnings for the full-year 2016 increased 22% to $551.4 million, or $4.34 per diluted share, compared to $451.8 million, or $3.57 per diluted share in 2015. Adjusted net earnings for the full-year 2016 were $566.1 million, or $4.46 per diluted share. Adjusted 2016 earnings exclude a pre-tax $32.9 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, non-cash fourth quarter goodwill impairment charge related to Backflip Studios. Adjusted full-year 2016 net earnings compares to 2015 adjusted net earnings of $445.0 million, or $3.51 per diluted share, which exclude a pre-tax gain of $9.6 million from the sale of the Company's manufacturing operations in East Longmeadow, MA and Waterford, Ireland.

Hasbro gaming increased by 23%, reflecting the hobby games market trends:

Hasbro's total gaming category, including all gaming revenue, most notably MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY, totaled $518.7 million for the fourth quarter 2016, up 11%, and $1,387.1 million, up 9%, for the full year 2016. Hasbro believes its gaming portfolio is a competitive differentiator and views it in its entirety.

Note that last sentence. Hasbro experienced a decline in Magic: The Gathering sales, and it's likely the leadership team was eager to share other good news in its gaming segment. That would turn out to be beneficial for D&D.

D&D is Doing Well​

Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner did something unusual -- he mentioned Dungeons & Dragons on an investor call. For years, D&D has been overshadowed by Magic: The Gathering's success when Hasbro reported out Wizards of the Coast's wins to investors. The shout-out alone on the Q1 investor call says something about D&D's success:

I also am very happy to see very strong growth for brands like DUNGEONS & DRAGONS and Duel Masters. So, the team at (46:34) has gone to a new storytelling modality for MAGIC and, obviously, impacted the quarter. But they've also done some very good work around DUNGEONS and storytelling and in engagement with that audience. So overall, I would expect that our face-to-face gaming business will continue to perform at a high level and the team's done an absolutely stellar job at both the social media oriented games, as well as some more of our classic games.

Hasbro seems to have a renewed interest in what they term "face-to-face" and "social" games, thanks to its launch of the Hasbro Gaming Crate that focuses on getting people to play together -- a staple of D&D. This is of course Wizards of the Coast's specialty. Investors are noticing.

Jim Cramer on Mad Money led the segment with an old D&D commercial and mentioned the RPG along with Star Wars as brands that allow Hasbro to "bring imagination to life." Cramer interviewed Goldner, who had some nice things to say about D&D:

...and our games business, a raft of great games. Dungeons & Dragons up 50%, Monopoly was of course up, and then of course Magic: The Gathering was up. So great strength in games, 6% growth, 20% growth in the gaming category overall...both Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons are on our Twitch programming... Dungeons & Dragons did a very special Twitch channel that they launched with the fans. We've had millions of views on Twitch around Dungeons & Dragons. We're seeing the brand really in resurgence.

So what does this mean for the future of D&D?

The Future of D&D​

D&D's demographics have shifted, according to the Daily News, with more female and older players:

While Wizards of the Coast, which manages the D&D franchise, won't share sales figures, reps tell the Daily News that Millennials (ages 25 to 34) presently make up the largest group of D&D players, followed closely by those aged 35 to 44 and 18 to 24 — and up to 30% of these gamers are girls.

The success of Pathfinder, the Old School Renaissance, mainstream fantasy media, and the nostalgia of gamer kids reaching the 35 to 44 age range in creative fields like movies and television is likely a major factor in the renewed interest in D&D. Todd Kenreck explains on Forbes:

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won 11 Oscars in 2004. 16 million people watched the premiere of season 7 of Game of Thrones this year. A serious interest in cinematic fantasy storytelling has steadily reached a fevered pitch and with the game D&D itself seeing a tremendous resurgence, this the perfect time for a Dungeons & Dragons movie or series that puts acting and story first. Like comic books before them, D&D the role-playing game is filled with stories, art, characters and world building that have been largerly left unused by television or film...The game has had impact on so many of the writers, actors, directors and show-runners making television and film today that is might not be a matter of if, but when.

Will Joe Manganiello pull off a film that does D&D justice? A confluence of events -- the rise of social gaming, nostalgia for D&D, and the increasing accessibility of the D&D brand thanks to live streaming -- might be the perfect time for him to pull it off.

 

[Pauper]

No mention of the 45+ crowd getting back into gaming? I feel old.

Just be happy with being acknowledged as part of the game's history. With the 50th anniversary of GenCon just passed, and the 50th anniversary of D&D coming soon, you'll get your nostalgia fix -- heck, just wait for "Ready Player One" and its reference to the Tomb of Horrors.

With that said, the best D&D movie has already been made: "The Princess Bride". Seriously. If you're going to do a 'new' D&D movie that both catches the zeitgeist and pays homage to what came before, then you could do a lot worse than updating Princess Bride for the 21st century.

--
Pauper

 

[ddaley]

Princess Bride has actually held up pretty well. I doubt they could remake and do a better job. And, who could play Inigo Montoya (or any of the other characters) any better?

Just be happy with being acknowledged as part of the game's history. With the 50th anniversary of GenCon just passed, and the 50th anniversary of D&D coming soon, you'll get your nostalgia fix -- heck, just wait for "Ready Player One" and its reference to the Tomb of Horrors.

With that said, the best D&D movie has already been made: "The Princess Bride". Seriously. If you're going to do a 'new' D&D movie that both catches the zeitgeist and pays homage to what came before, then you could do a lot worse than updating Princess Bride for the 21st century.

--
Pauper

 

[Pauper]

Princess Bride has actually held up pretty well. I doubt they could remake and do a better job. And, who could play Inigo Montoya (or any of the other characters) any better?

I'll agree with you that the film has held up well, though the biggest 'action' sequence in the movie is the swordfight between Inigo and the Man in Black, and is still pretty tame by modern standards -- that's one area that could get a bump.

I guess I could have been clearer -- a straight re-make wouldn't really fly as a D&D movie. But I think a lot of the current fans of D&D would be way more into a D&D movie that resembled Princess Bride than one that resembled Conan.

--
Pauper

 

[Tony Vargas]

'New Golden Age' is something of a misnomer. This could certainly be considered a 'Silver Age,' though. A resurgence in popularity, even if it a lot of it's derivative, that kinda thing.

While Wizards of the Coast, which manages the D&D franchise, won't share sales figures, reps tell the Daily News that Millennials (ages 25 to 34) presently make up the largest group of D&D players, followed closely by those aged 35 to 44 and 18 to 24 — and up to 30% of these gamers are girls.

That's pretty awesome, though it also reflects trends that started as far back as late in the 90s (more 'girl gamers' started showing up when LARPing and Storyteller peaked). And, middle-school to college age was the prime demographic for D&D, so it's not like D&D is bringing 25-44 year-olds into the hobby, right now - they probably started anything up to 30 years prior. (Though, I guess these days, 34yo may still 'be college age.')

No mention of the 45+ crowd getting back into gaming? I feel old.

Not the focus of the piece. You have one demographic 'followed closely' by two more. We also have no idea how said data was gathered. Facebook polling might skew young, for instance.

Here, it skews quite old. Nice to see we're not as representative as feared.

 

[tuxedoraptor]

Now if only vancian casting and hit dice could die in a fire we would be set. They really need to take the motto of "balance before fun". I find it pretty easy to have fun with any system as long as it isn't unbalanced. Thats why I like radiance RPG since its so well balanced. Every option is situationally great and not one class can outshine another forever.

 

[Moraine]

• Dragons of Autumn Twilight
• Dragons of Winter Night
• Dragons of Spring Dawning

A perfect trilogy.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Now if only vancian casting and hit dice could die in a fire we would be set. They really need to take the motto of "balance before fun". I find it pretty easy to have fun with any system as long as it isn't unbalanced. Thats why I like radiance RPG since its so well balanced. Every option is situationally great and not one class can outshine another forever.

There have been optional non-Vancian magic systems almost since AD&D 1st edition, so that is not a big deal. The Hit Dice thing is more problematic, especially with 4th and 5th Edition giving you things to do with your Hit Dice that is not exist before that.

 

[aramis erak]

Games are up in general.
5E is a well put together game.
5E is excellently marketed by one of the largest companies in the industry.
5E maintains the classic iconic roles that have driven it for over 40 years.
5E is relatively easy to learn.

Adds up to a major opportunity taken advantage of...

 

[TheDiceMustRoll]

It's almost like making safe business decisions is much smarter than people understand!

I've also noticed a general downward trend with people my age(28) playing video games. They're expensive, hardware is expensive unless you get consoles, they take up a ton of time - time you're spending idle in a chair or couch. I mean, DnD isn't an active game, but I get to see my friends! I get to see my loved ones! It's not really about the game or whatever, it's just us having a good time.

 

[Tony Vargas]

The Hit Dice thing is more problematic, especially with 4th and 5th Edition giving you things to do with your Hit Dice that is not exist before that.

5e does one 'new' thing with HD, you roll them to recover hps on a short rest. 4e didn't have HD, at all. Getting rid of hp/damage scaling would be problematic in 5e, certainly, but using something other than HD to gain & restore hps shouldn't be.