D&D 5E Is Savage Attacker worth it?

[JackOfAllTirades]

OK, I'm out. There's no point debating with someone who plays a game with dice and insists that probability distributions are "meaningless."

 

[FormerlyHemlock]

I wouldn't say its trivial to compute the optimal time to use Savage Attacker in multiattack situations. However, it is doable. But algorithms aside that's not the point I was making.


My post was in relation to JackofTirades where he suggested that "the whole story" would include looking at the damage distributions. Right now about the only thing knowing the damage distributions allows is to do is to calculate DPR, which is rather handy because DPR is strongly correlated with being "better" at combat.

So basically the point I am trying to make is that when we talk about DPR with savage attacker we are talking about the only meaningful stat that knowing the damage distribution currently let's us compute. So it's almost wrong to talk about the whole picture and bring in damage distributions when they are currently meaningless in relation to combat effectiveness outside their DPR.

Oh there is one other thing knowing a damage distribution can do for us at the moment, knowing our minimum and maximum damages which has very little to do with being "better" at combat. So basically trivially obvious and meaningless information that seems to get pointed out by way to many people because those people apparently think everyone else is too dumb to realize that a reroll that causes +1 DPR doesn't actually have change your minimum or maximum damage values.

The reminder given would actually be a useful reminder if there actually existed something besides DPR that allowed comparing different damage distribtuions in such a way that the comparison was a useful predictor of combat effectiveness.

If I understand you correctly, you're pointing out that the "whole story" is way more than DPR. While it's pretty easy[1] to calculate the DPR boost for Savage Attacks, what is not easy to do is calculate the value of the opportunity cost (other feats, which are much harder to analyze), especially since many of them affect things other than simple DPR.

Am I understanding you correctly? If so I agree. DPR is an interesting metric in some comparisons but it's far from the whole story.

[1] Okay, you're right, it's not quite trivial to compute the optimal Savage Attacks algorithm. It would take me a computer and fifteen or twenty minutes to write a calculator for giving the optimal algorithm vs. AC X with Y number of attacks, and I might make mistakes while writing the code... so it's not trivial in the same way that computing average damage boost using Sharpshooter is.

 

[FrogReaver]

OK, I'm out. There's no point debating with someone who plays a game with dice and insists that probability distributions are "meaningless."

What does knowing the probability distribution actually allow you to do? Sure there is a probability distribution...but so what?

What additional information does knowing the probability distribution give us?

I can make a good case for DPR giving useful additional information since it actually allows us to compare different builds/classes/weapons and the DPR results actually correlate very well with actual in combat ability.

Now this isn't saying there won't come a time when we will have a different comparison metric where the probability distribution knowledge can be used to create a better comparison value than DPR that will correlate even more with actual combat ability than DPR. At that point in time the probability distribution knowledge is good. But at this point in time with our current tools to analyze DND characters it's really meaningless information (unless you are using it to calculate DPR which is meaningful information).

 

[Mirtek]

I understand it not working with all damage dice (it would be an auto take for Rogue for Sneak Attack),

Actually it wouldn't. The more dice you role, the less the feat does for you. You have to re-role all your dice with this feat, you can't cherry pick and re-role only some.

The more dice you role, the more average your total result, the less chance of the re-role being much different than your first roll.

 

[FrogReaver]

If I understand you correctly, you're pointing out that the "whole story" is way more than DPR. While it's pretty easy[1] to calculate the DPR boost for Savage Attacks, what is not easy to do is calculate the value of the opportunity cost (other feats, which are much harder to analyze), especially since many of them affect things other than simple DPR.

Am I understanding you correctly? If so I agree. DPR is an interesting metric in some comparisons but it's far from the whole story.

[1] Okay, you're right, it's not quite trivial to compute the optimal Savage Attacks algorithm. It would take me a computer and fifteen or twenty minutes to write a calculator for giving the optimal algorithm vs. AC X with Y number of attacks, and I might make mistakes while writing the code... so it's not trivial in the same way that computing average damage boost using Sharpshooter is.

You are getting close and all you said is true even if it wasn't exactly what I was trying to say. Yes, the whole story is more than DPR. However, damage distributions really don't help tell us any meaningful part of the story at the moment that DPR values do not.

I guess to summarize my point is this:
1. Right now DPR is one of the best methods we have for helping to compare combat effectiveness between 2 characters. It's not perfect but it's the best we have.
2. Someone pointing out that a DPR value maps to multiple probability/damage distribution while true (and also obvious IMO) just muddies the waters because this knowledge currently provides no additional insight. There is currently nothing we can do with a damage distribution to gain any additional insight, comparison or analysis that we can't do better and easier with just DPR.

3. Currently the only semi useful thing I can think of that could be computed from knowing a damage distribution would be probability to kill a monster with [(hp) < (your max damage)] on your next turn. That's a very niche piece of information IMO. Especially since DPR values of various characters builds gives us almost just as good of an idea at which build will have a higher chance of killing the monster simply based on the simple DPR of the build. We don't get the exact percentage but we get a single value that easy to compare and use that gives us a very good comparison tool between the builds to help estimate which is the best in that situation.

 

[FormerlyHemlock]

You are getting close and all you said is true even if it wasn't exactly what I was trying to say. Yes, the whole story is more than DPR. However, damage distributions really don't help tell us any meaningful part of the story at the moment that DPR values do not.

Oh, I get it! You're saying that DPR is a useful summary statistic[1]. Yes, it is useful. It's not the best or only statistic out there (loss ratios are better IMO), but it has the virtue of simplicity.

-Max

[1] I'm unsure whether you're referring to DPR as an actual Damage-per-round metric against a particular AC under particular circumstances, or abstract DPR in a "assume all attacks hit" scenario, but I think both metrics can be useful.

 

[FrogReaver]

Oh, I get it! You're saying that DPR is a useful summary statistic[1]. Yes, it is useful. It's not the best or only statistic out there (loss ratios are better IMO), but it has the virtue of simplicity.

-Max

[1] I'm unsure whether you're referring to DPR as an actual Damage-per-round metric against a particular AC under particular circumstances, or abstract DPR in a "assume all attacks hit" scenario, but I think both metrics can be useful.

I'm not sure what loss ratio is?

 

[sandvirm]

Actually it wouldn't. The more dice you role, the less the feat does for you. You have to re-role all your dice with this feat, you can't cherry pick and re-role only some.

The more dice you role, the more average your total result, the less chance of the re-role being much different than your first roll.

I think I understand what you're trying to say. There are diminishing returns for each additional die being rerolled, but each additional die added to the pool still increases the expected value. If the DM allows Savage Attacker to work on Sneak Attack dice, High level Rogues may get the greatest DPR boost from Savage Attacker.

 

[FrogReaver]

deleted per was wrong.

 

[FormerlyHemlock]

I'm not sure what loss ratio is?

My DPR / my attackers' DPR. Best computed as a party metric.

Quick example: if I'm a fifth level DX 18 fighter with Sharpshooter, a rapier/shield, archery style, and a longbow, I can be either AC 18 doing 10.4 damage to an AC 14 minotaur per turn, or AC 20 doing 6.18 points of damage. For simplicity, let's say I have two identical CH 18 AC 13 warlock buddies who can each do 8.8 damage per round to a minotaur using Eldritch Blast + Hex from range, or 5.9 from melee due to disadvantage. (I have scripts to calculate these values, if you want them.)

There are six possible configurations if we ignore minotaur charge (assume I know about charges and I'm savvy enough to prevent it from happening):

Minotaur attacks me (AC 20 rapier and shield): I take 6.6 DPR, we inflict 6.18 + 8.8 + 8.8 DPR, loss ratio is .27.
Minotaur attacks me (AC 20 rapier and shield), using Reckless attack: I take 11.09 DPR, we inflict 8.17 + 11.7 + 11.7 DPR, loss ratio is .35.
Minotaur attacks me (AC 18 configuration): I take 8.3 DPR, we inflict 5.61 (bow at disadvantage) + 8.8 + 8.8 DPR, loss ratio is .36.
Minotaur attacks me (AC 18 configuration), using Reckless attack: I take 13.13 DPR, we inflict 10.4 + 11.7 + 11.7 DPR, loss ratio is .39.
Minotaur attacks warlock: Warlock takes 12.55 DPR, we inflict 10.4 (using my bow) + 8.8 + 5.9 (warlock at melee disadv) DPR, loss ratio is 0.5.
Minotaur attacks warlock, using Reckless attack: Warlock takes 16.74 DPR, we inflict 15.2 (using my bow) + 11.7 (warlock at adv) + 8.8 DPR 0.47.

Conclusions:
1.) It is advantageous for me to put away my bow and engage the minotaur in melee instead of letting the warlock do it, even though that prevents me from benefitting from Sharpshooter.
2.) It doesn't make sense to Legolas in this situation even if the Minotaur is using Reckless Attack, because while my damage goes up, so does my damage taken, and my loss ratio suffers.
3.) The minotaur should use Reckless attack against me. Against the warlocks it's better not to go Reckless.
4.) Eyeballing the numbers above, I should probably dodge instead of attacking with my rapier. (Checking the numbers, I find that Dodging gives a loss ratio of 0.12 if the minotaur attacks normally, or 0.28 if it uses Reckless attack, so Dodging helps a little but not that much.)

Of course the best loss ratio is infinite: at range, we inflict 28 points of damage per round and take 0 DPR in return. But if I can't arrange that, I should put down my bow and front-line it with my rapier.

Hope that helps,
Max