Hmmm...ignoring any feats and fighting styles, since they would have to be modified.
Assuming +5 to hit, against a 13 AC. That's pretty baseline for low levels. So a 65% hit chance, unmodified.
Greatsword attack: 6.5 average damage. (0.65 * 10 average damage [2d6+3])
Two short sword attack: 5.85 average damage. (0.45 * 2 * 6.5 average damage [1d6+3])
Dual-wielder gets a slightly lower average damage, but a +1 to AC, and better damage scaling as AC drops and/or bonuses kick in (sneak attack, hunter's mark, bless, advantage, etc.).
At 5th level, 2nd attack (3rd attack for dual wielding) kicks in:
Assuming +7 to attack, against a 15 AC. Probably slightly high for the AC, but it leaves us with a 65% hit chance yet again.
Greatsword attack: 14.3 average damage. (0.65 * 2 * 11 average damage [2d6+4])
Two short sword attack: 12.4 average damage. (0.55 * 3 * 7.5 average damage [1d6+4])
Again, slight lead for the greatsword attacker, but the +1 AC and scaling advantages still make dual-wielding comparable.
The actual balance will be determined by how the fighting styles get modified, and whether any modified dual-wielder feat will have the scaling of a SS/GWM feat, but this is a pretty solid modification.