Pathfinder 1E Pathfinder circulation

[Sammael]

We don't know what the first circulation is, do we?

However, I think we can extrapolate from the recent post made on Paizo's messageboards, which referred to "thousands of copies ordered from Paizo's online store."

I believe that this number refers to the direct customer orders, not distributor/retailer orders. "Thousands of copies" to me implies a number greater than 3000 (which would probably be referred to as "several thousand") but lower than 20000 (which would likely be referred to as "tens of thousands"). I'll be pessimistic and say that the actual number is 4000.

If 4000 people ordered from Paizo's store, then I would guess at least that same number ordered from Amazon. That's 4000 more.

If we assume that there are 500 local stores around the world (a fairly conservative number, but with the dwindling numbers, I guess it's not too conservative) ordered an average of 5 copies each (some probably ordered 50 but many probably ordered 0), that's another 2500.

Other online stores and bookstores can probably account for 1000 copies at the very least.

Finally, I'm guessing that Paizo brought about 1000 copies to GenCon.

That's a total of 4000+4000+2500+1000+1000 = 12500 copies. This, in my opinion, is a very conservative figure, but it's still pretty nice for a relatively small publisher.

Thoughts?

 

[NiTessine]

I think it was Erik Mona in the comments of a blog post at Grognardia who stated that they don't consider 10,000 copies a hugely ambitious print run, as they (James Jacobs?) described this elsewhere (either here or on their own forums, can't remember).

I recall them also mentioning that they took more than a thousand copies to Gen Con, after the beta book sold out last year.

Interestingly, the Pathfinder RPG Core Rulebook is the most sold RPG item of the last thirty days at our local game store chain, and it's been out for four days (and I can confirm they did not break street date). They won't quote actual numbers, though.

I'd guess the print run was around 15,000, but would not place 20,000 outside the realm of possibility. This is just my own hunch, though, and isn't supported by any concrete data.

 

[Wicht]

I think they probably aimed for closer to 50,000. Roughly the number of downloads.

EDIT: When you examine the picture posted at Paizo of the number of books they stacked (incomplete stack in the picture) and realize that it is not a table under the cloth but actually the stack of books - you can count the edges and extrapolate a number pretty close to 2000 taken to Gencon (I would guess about 2000-2500).

Picture of the Books at Gencon

 

[Doodles]

I would have taken the number of downloads on the Beta and downgrade from there, guessing conservatively a ratio of people satisfied versus people dumping the PDF in the garbage bin after reading it.

Given what Erik was talking about earlier on Grognardia, I would guess between 20 and 30K for the first print run. Maybe more, depending on how the interest and number of Beta downloads evolved after the 50K number was released.

 

[Darrin Drader]

I have a guess and it's somewhere between NiTessine's and Wicht's guesses. But I have no inside knowledge, so don't construe this as an answer.

 

[smug]

I think they probably aimed for closer to 50,000. Roughly the number of downloads.

EDIT: When you examine the picture posted at Paizo of the number of books they stacked (incomplete stack in the picture) and realize that it is not a table under the cloth but actually the stack of books - you can count the edges and extrapolate a number pretty close to 2000 taken to Gencon (I would guess about 2000-2500).

Picture of the Books at Gencon

I think that wasn't all the books they had for GenCon, either. But did they sell them all?

 

[Wicht]

According to the Paizo board and some gen-con attendees there was about 2500 books for sale at Gencon and as of today there were at least a few dozen left.

Link

Erik Mona also said that it was their most successful Gencon ever.

 

[Darkwolf71]

They also said that the initial print run was thought to be enough to last the rest of the year. So with 50k downloads of the BETA, if you figure a third or even half of those were casual readers who decided not to buy the final version for whatever reason 25-30k would be a conservative run (in my non-publishing experienced opinion). Aggressive, would be 40-50k... but that's completely wild guessing.

 

[MichaelSomething]

We'll never be able to get exact numbers. That's simply the way it is.

The first print run could be anywhere from ten to one hundred and forty thousand copies according to my best guess. I think the actual number will tend to be on the higher end though.

 

[Dal Thrax]

Best estimates are

2500 copies to GenCon, about 300 copies left over after GenCon. My guess is Paizo estimated a sale rate of about 100 copies an hour (the fire alarm late in the day on Saturday, an anecdotal accounts of a number of gamers deciding to head for dinner aftwords may have disrupted sales).

Between 1500 and 2500 or so copies were held back in China in case the first print run got held up in customs.

Company CEO has stated more then 10,000 less then 100,000. I'm guessing an initial print run of around 50,000. That would compare favorable to the initial print run of AD&D 1st edition.