Population Growth Help

[Kilmore]

I think you used the term "colony". Not to mince words, but if it IS a colony, I'm sure there was a reason for it to be colonized. If there was, there may still be one, and the place could possibly see explosive growth from the original source, such as what happened in America.

 

[danzig138]

I think you used the term "colony". Not to mince words, but if it IS a colony, I'm sure there was a reason for it to be colonized. If there was, there may still be one, and the place could possibly see explosive growth from the original source, such as what happened in America.

I used colony because that's the word that popped into my head. Actually, it is a group of exiled rebels and political prisoners. so while there will occasionally be a few numbers added from the homeland, there is no real attempt to colonize the location. Although colonization is a possible future plot idea. One of the problems I was having was trying to figure how much the population would grow without immigration.

 

[The Onion Knight]

Danzig
Do not listen to Xeriar.
Assuming by low attrition you mean no major disease and plagues and no big wars, and by good resources you mean food and space, a .5 to 2.5% population growth rate for an agrarian culture with a medievel technological level (no birth control) would be rediculously low. The US growth rate is .5 to 1.5% without immigration, and about 3-4% with immigration.
African nations today without immigration and with levels of plague and war have growth rate around 8-10% easily.

If you want a good formulat follow this
With Good resources and plenty of space, no war, plague, disease or famine on a major level

Take your population and double it after 10 years,
take that number and double it after 10 more years,
take that number and double it after the next 20 years
Repeat the last step 3 more time for a total of 100 years and
8832 people

That's your target population for the situation you described

 

[Dareoon Dalandrove]

here is a problem i see. no immagration? no body ever moves to this village? in a hundred years everyone is going to be related. the simplest way to solve your problem is just decide.

 

[Kal Torak]

This is a very hard call. Without any kind of plauge, famine of some such there are very few historical expamles that come to mind. But if you consider that a 50% child mortality rate is'nt out of order and that very few woman havore that about 8 kids you get 4 for 2(mommy and daddy) that meens it doubles in about 15 years 8considering only people of child bearing age) so you get a pop of 672, half of them too young to bear children. (Yhat seems low, I might be doing something wrong?) so you get 672 minus deaths past the orignial 138, I'd say about 300. (Seems to low)

 

[jgbrowning]

population numbers from medieval times

Take your population and double it after 10 years,
take that number and double it after 10 more years,
take that number and double it after the next 20 years
Repeat the last step 3 more time for a total of 100 years and
8832 people

That's your target population for the situation you described

from : Carlo M. Cipolla, Before the Industrial Revolution, Third Edition subtitled "European Society and Economy 1000-1700", Norton, 1994 (paper). ISBN 0-393-31198-8

Population of Medieval Europe according to Carlo Cipolla Region 1000 1300 1500 1700
Balkans - - 7 8
Low Countries - - 2 3
British Isles 2 5 5 9
Danubian Countries - - 6 9
France 5 15 16 19
Germany 3 12 13 15
Italy 5 10 11 13
Poland - - 4 6
Russia - - 10 18
Scandanavia - - - 3
Spain and Portugal - - 9 10

the numbers are in millions. for another view of the same material (pop numbers are very difficult to come up with: Josiah C. Russell, "Population in Europe:, in Carlo M. Cipolla, ed., The Fontana Economic History of Europe, Vol. I: The Middle Ages, (Glasgow : Collins/Fontana, 1972), 25-71 (he's a source for Cipolla)

Population Estimates (in millions) at specified times 500-1450
AREA 500 650 1000 1340 1450

Greece/Balkans 5 3 5 6 4.5
Italy 4 2.5 5 10 7.3
Spain/Portugal 4 3.5 7 9 7
Total - South 13 9 17 25 19

France/Low countries 5 3 6 19 12
British Isles 0.5 0.5 2 5 3
Germany/Scandinavia 3.5 2 4 11.5 7.3
Total - West/Central 9 5.5 12 35.5 22.5


your previous responders were not talking about population growth during the time period DnD is usually set in. (the middle ages.) If you take in to account magic you should probably double the popluation growth figures.

remember, even these numbers are only good guesses, but fairly reasonable assumptions to most medieval scholors.

joe b.

 

[Bagpuss]

Just pick a number that feels right to you. Your players aren't going to have a clue either.

When you consider sizes of families, you have said no cleric so in a Medieval setting you could be looking at a very high infant mortality rate, also a number of women would die during child-birth.

With so many different factors, you could justify any figure you pull out of thin air.

 

[MavrickWeirdo]

1129

Assuming an average of 3 kids per woman, and 50 years as average lifespan then after 100 years you'll have over 1100 people; however about 500 of them will be 14 or younger, leaving over 600 adults

 

[Falcmir]

How do you figure numbers as low as 3 children per woman?
They are specifically trying to build their population and each woman is going to have @ 20 years to bear children. It should be more in the range of 10 - 15 per woman which was typical among rural farming families. The population should explode if you have no external limits keeping the numbers down.

 

[BigBastard]

I think you need at least 500 unrelated people to prevent inbreeding? Maybe you should also consider genetic fraility with in the community and how it effects its growth.