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D&D 4E Reviewing Past Predictions about 4e

amnuxoll

First Post
Now that 4e is out, I think it would be revealing (and fun) to review some of the things designers of 3e and 3.5e said that are relevant to 4e. Remember this interview that Monte Cook did with Skip Williams?
http://www.montecook.com/cgi-bin/page.cgi?int_dnd30_Skip


Below are two quotes from it that might be of interest. This one is about how the design of the 3e skill system:

"One example of this kind of tinkering is the skill system. The
original plan called for an extremely simple skill system that was
strictly tied to character level. Your character had a limited number
of skills, but you automatically got better at them as you went up in
level (just as your saving throw and attack bonuses got better with
level). That system proved much too simplistic for anyone's tastes,
and the debate about how to replace what we had with a workable system
often got heated, to say the least."


And this prediction about future versions after 3.5e:

"At present, we have a game that's fairly easy to learn, but somewhat
hard to master because the rules contain so many exceptions and
special cases, and because the rules allow so many different kinds of
characters. The general trend for the future, I think, will be toward
an ever more complex game. The current audience seems to crave more
rules for handling oddball situations, and there's a sub-community
that seeks ever more powerful and flamboyant characters. The challenge
for the next edition's design team will be to preserve the game's core
as something that veterans will love and beginners can handle while at
the same time offering people who want to push the envelope ways to do
that."

Does anyone else have interesting past predictions about 4e?

:AMN:
 

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MortalPlague

Adventurer
It's amusing to read this now, knowing how 4th Edition turned out completely opposite to these predictions. I, for one, am glad that it did. :)
 

Oompa

First Post
Yeah indeed, me and my gaming group are really bob the gamers, we have the PHB, and thats enough material for the coming 5 years :)
 


WhatGravitas

Explorer
Interesting - I think here, we really see trends - the push for simplification is a newer one, due to the rise of Forge games and lighter rules like Savage Worlds. And I daresay that this is partially due to the OGL as well, as it revitalised the hobby in general.

Interesting how things turn out.

doctorhook said:
Off topic: ...So, anybody know what Monte Cook thinks of 4E now? [/sarcasm]
Not really, on his boards he seemingly gracefully refrains from doing that... and he recently had his gaming cellar flooded. So he's a bit pre-occupied.

Cheers, LT.
 

essenbee

First Post
Lord Tirian said:
..and lighter rules like Savage Worlds...
The influence of Savage Worlds and similar game systems is particularly obvious in 4E, which is great for me, because I love Savage Worlds. 4e is now I game I will (and do) play, whereas 3/3.5 was too complex IMHO and I would never consider DMing it. I did play for a while but moved to SW as soon as I discovered it. It was a liberating experience, and I am very grateful to the 4e team for enabling me to get back into D&D and recreate my 1e experiences.
 

Mystaros

First Post
Here are my predictions from August 5, 2006:

http://www.enworld.org/showpost.php?p=2990924&postcount=407

D&D 4E is announced at Gen Con.
I was way off on that... but then, I felt then and still feel now that they missed the sales curve and should have skipped 3.5 and gone directly to 4E in 2005.

It will, indeed, be miniatures-focused... WotC has steadily gained the upper hand in CMGs over the last year, and learned from the experience.
Though they still insist that miniatures are not necessary to play 4E, anyone who has actually read the combat rules must disagree!

A basic boxed set is released for Christmas. The "role-playing guide books" will be released starting in Spring, maybe a GTS-period launch. The "rpg guide books" will focus on "builds," so that players can maximize their characters on the field of battle.
Off here too on their marketing plans; while 4E should be all about acquiring a newer, younger audience, the marketing and sales plan is completely reversed in that they decided to push for the highest return on existing players before ever going after the newer players. This is odd, as the game itself is designed entirely from the perspective of the newer players even though the books are hardly new-player-friendly!

Of course, I have as yet to see any reason to change my belief that the 4E marketing plan is either a bad marketing plan gone worse or a terrible marketing plan well executed...

I nailed it as far as PHBs being all about character builds. But then, that was like predicting rain in Seattle...

Dungeon Masters will be optional in the core rules, as it will all be scenario, or "delve" based. Like in MMORPGs, there will be no real secrets; think Talisman or that Warhammer game some time back. There might be some randomness, with monsters in random rooms. Each scenario will be designed for quick play, an evening at most, so that players don't need to worry about putting together an extensive campaign, though that will, of course, be an option.
From my reading of the books so far, this seems pretty close to what they did, save for the optional nature of the DM. "No secrets" is right on, as all the magic items are in the PHB. 4E very much strikes me as Talisman/Warhammer Quest/Descent on steroids. And the DMG emphasizes 4 to 6 hour sessions...

Organized Play will be a major factor, and characters will gain as much fame as players.
Dunno yet if the fame of the characters will play a part, but organized play on DDI and with the new Living FR are a strong focus.

Essentially, D&D 4E will try, in every way possible, to emulate the MMORPG experience in a tabletop milieu.
Bingo.

As for the OGL and d20 System, well, they won't care. They can't stop it anymore, and, frankly, the market that remains for it is beneath their notice. They will be no more concerned with the players of 3.0/3.5 than they are for the 1.0 or 2.0 fans... and the small industry that remains, dedicated to d20/OGL offshoots, will be no competition.
I think the guys at WotC had this attitude, then the Hasbro suits came in and said, "We need to crush 3E OGL" because, well, they are pointy-hair-boss types, and so the whole 4E GSL situation descended into a fiasco.
 
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Byronic

First Post
Lord Tirian said:
Not really, on his boards he seemingly gracefully refrains from doing that... and he recently had his gaming cellar flooded. So he's a bit pre-occupied.

Cheers, LT.

WHO WILL THINK OF THE BOOKS! (really, I hope that he didn't have too much good stuff down there cause that would be a tragedy)
 

Nikosandros

Golden Procrastinator
Mystaros said:
From my reading of the books so far, this seems pretty close to what they did, save for the optional nature of the DM. "No secrets" is right on, as all the magic items are in the PHB. 4E very much strikes me as Talisman/Warhammer Quest/Descent on steroids. And the DMG emphasizes 4 to 6 hour sessions...
I really disagree on that one... the game is made for the type of adventures that have always been present in D&D.
 

WhatGravitas

Explorer
Byronic said:
WHO WILL THINK OF THE BOOKS! (really, I hope that he didn't have too much good stuff down there cause that would be a tragedy)
Nah, according to his blog, they saved the most of the games and books down there in time. They "just" got a flooded cellar, soaked carpets and woodwork. Though that sucks a lot as well.

Cheers, LT.
 

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