Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[Spatula]

Now, maybe Dancey is biased here. But he has put together a detailed argument. If that argument is totally bogus and based purely on biased and agenda-laden fiction, then it will be a terribly fragile argument. Deconstruct it. Tear it apart and show it for its absurdity.

I don't see any argument, just a hypothesis that things are going to get worse. And maybe they will, maybe they won't. But a hypothesis is proven or disproven by later data - there's nothing to "deconstruct" or "tear apart." Dancey doesn't have any more information that we do, which is to say, nearly none. All of us are just reading the tea-leaves and making simplistic predictions.

 

[danbala]

Again, not apples to apples. In 4.0 they split up what would normally be in a 1st PHB & made 2 PHBs. Neat mktg ploy though. Better would be to compare PHB, MM & DMG sales after one year for both editions.

I understand that. But if you are trying to gauge the comparitive success of the editions, surely the fact that 4e is able to sell more PHB2 (for whatever reason) would be of interest, no?

 

[danbala]

I can't believe it's taken this long in the thread for someone to post this I was just about to say something similar . . .

I've have some questions about Dancy core theory. His theory about PHB2 -- as I understand it -- is that it sold out early because it was under solicited by the bookstore chains. He guesses that this is because either (1) WotC lacked confidence in the product or (2) the bookstore chains lacked confidence.

I have two problems with this: (1) First I question the logic of the "under order" theory; and (2) even if this is true it could more easily be explained by the observable market conditions.

The second point first. It seems to me that there is a simpler reason for under ordering than a lack of confidence in the product. Several of the big book store chains are flirting with bankruptcy -- in particular Borders. Retailers in general are under ordering across the board and deliberately depleted their warehouse stock. So it very likely that the under ordering was the result of over cautiousness caused by the recession – rather than a commentary on the long term prospects of table top gaming. In fact, the high PHB2s sales can be seen as evidence that RPGs -- like comics and some movies -- are "recession resistant" because the core fanbase continues to turn out despite the macro conditions.

Moreover, I have a question about whether deliberate under ordering is really a factor. We know, for example, that the core books sold out their first printing based solely on pre orders. That would seem to fly in the face of the “lead time = perfect knowledge of numbers needed for print runs” part of the theory. If WotC can predict months out what the book store chains will buy, then why would they ever print less copies than where needed even for the pre-orders? It seems to me that unexpectedly high demand is the only reasonable conclusion.

I think Occam’s Razor would suggest that retailers are under ordering because they are skittish in general and don’t understand the significance of a new edition to the players. It would seem that demand has outstripped expectations for the product.

 

[BryonD]

I don't see any argument, just a hypothesis that things are going to get worse.

I think you are confusing "argument" with "proof". It certainly isn't proof, and doesn't claim to be. But it is beyond mere hypothesis.

And again, rather than address the claims, a dodge is presented.

 

[DevoutlyApathetic]

A Book that is not tied to a ruleset. I.C.E.'s Nightmares of mine is a fine example of such.

Not a definition I've ever heard. I've always heard it referred to as a product that will have relatively stable and meaningful sales for an extended period of time such that a bookstore could continually restock to a certain level and be confident of selling the product.

So, for example, a store could set up their inventory system so that whenever they sell a PHB they order another one and they could let this system continue for ever (realistically until it's reprinted/new edition) since people are continually being brought into the hobby and buy PHB's.

As for GAMA, it amounts to Dancey thinking he could make a profitable version of the RPGA and run Cons but it went horribly, horribly wrong. Taking on the herculean task of converting Living City was a huge problem but their show running wasn't very good either.

Edit: And I somehow manage to not notice the other five pages of the thread.

 

[haakon1]

My VCR flashing 12:00 is still right twice a day.

Ah. My old alarm clock is just black in all its LED's, though . . .

 

[kaskoid]

To the person posting under the name of Kask

I must insist that you cease using my name to post under.

Timothy J Kask
The real one, not some poseur.

 

[Felon]

Hmm. He forgot to cite the cancellation of the DDM game in favor of packs of three $dollar minis as part of the trend.

 

[Spatula]

And again, rather than address the claims, a dodge is presented.

Give me something that isn't pure conjecture and I can address it. I probably wouldn't bother, because I have no horse in this race, but at least you would have a valid point then.

What outside parties think is going to happen to D&D in the future is mostly useless, in the same way that a layman's thoughts on what the weather is going to be in the future are mostly useless. Hey, when I woke up this morning and there were dark clouds overhead, I was positive it was going to rain. One precipitation-less hour later, the sun was out. Maybe the reactionary decision-makers will think they have reason to make more cuts, maybe they won't. It could be that sales will slide down because 4e has no evergreen product or it could be that sales are actually healthy. Perhaps the global recession will kill the RPG market, or perhaps D&D is somewhat recession-proof. We have no way of knowing - not being privy to internal WotC sales data, debates, & politics - and neither does Dancey. Unless he's reading someone else's emails again.

 

[SkidAce]

Give me something that isn't pure conjecture and I can address it. ... Unless he's reading someone else's emails again.

Or he is using his experience in the industry to notice trend indicators that point towards a probable outcome.

You are correct, there is no "proof". but that does not make it simply conjuecture either.