And when I do ultimately put his hat on the foyer table of a brothel where cattle rustlers are partaking of entertainment, the question turns into “what?”
Then, once we find out what “what” is, the question becomes “what now (and what cost or what are we willing to risk)?”
This seems broadly similar to Umbran on Dread: it is known that some crisis will occur (the collapse of the tower => PC death; the need to confront the PC's brother); but there is uncertainty around when/how this will happen (until suddenly it does!).
In terms of Vincent Baker's framing, this is not uncertainty about what the cost will be. It seems to be uncertainty about what might be achieved before paying the cost.
Let me extend things a little bit to talk about cost as the relevant piece...
Yes, your daemon can open the safe, but you only have four humanity left and you don't want to hear what it wants you to do to your cat...
<snip>
This is a type of play where the imagining of setting, situation, conflict and opportunity comes from the players. It comes from the conceptions of the dramatis personae. If anything is decided prior to those characters being realised, the game will not feature the type of drama Vincent is discussing.
So chao is talking about Sorcerer here, but its relevant.
So the PC's big brother is the best man he ever knew. Raised him when their parents died. Is a retired, legendary Dog who lost his gun-fighting hand when a nasty infection from a wound took it that he got rescuing a child straight from the jaws of a mountain lion. But he lost worse than that. His wife and (would-have-been) first-born died in childbirth a few years ago and he hadn't seen him since.
So what happens if his brother isn't in a shallow grave somewhere (maybe he lost a poker hand and more than that to a couple of rustlers) and that hat is now the possession of the man who took it from him.
* What if his brother is in that brothel sinning something fierce and, when confronted, we CLEARLY won't just be talking this out.
* What if his brother is in that brothel sinning something fierce and, when confronted, he won't comply with justice...nor will his rustler companions.
* What if his brother is in that brothel sinning something fierce and, when confronted, he brashly bears the heretical branding and demonic influence of the rumored Sorcerer that has been corrupting this town...and the girl's face he was getting it on changes into a horrific visage and her hands and claws elongate...and unfixed objects suddenly rise of their own volition and hurtle through the air...
Now all of these get a little bit worse. They get progressively more dangerous to the Dog/s, progressively more emotionally brutal, progressively more dangerous to the fallen brother, and progressively more costly (in social currency to the Dog with respect to his duty) to attempt to undo the damage to the brother's soul in the eyes of the King of Life, and potentially more costly to the Town and the Faithful if this wickedness isn't rooted out and justice not swiftly meted.
So in each of these scenarios we have cost-related suspense. How will the Dog respond? What will he prioritize; family, his immediate duty before him, the ability to live and fight another day (for the Town)? If he lets his brother and/or the rustlers go, what havoc will they wreak before he catches up to them with the rest of the Dogs, and perhaps a posse, as backup? Will his companions go along with him, whatever he decides? What if they try to save/redeem the brother and its deemed to be nepotism by the Faithful or the territorial authorities? What if he doesn't and the fact that they allowed a legendary Dog perish under demonic influence utterly demoralizes the Town, therefore making it vulnerable to further Sin?
In terms of mechanical implications, this conflict is going to impact the Dog (possibly severely depending upon how things go), and the likelihood is extremely high that his Relationship dice with his Brother are going to change.