ArcaneSpringboard
First Post
New blog post at This is My Game: This is My Game The Future of D&D
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The VOIDRUNNER'S CODEX is coming! Explore new worlds, fight oppressive empires, fend off fearsome aliens, and wield deadly psionics with this comprehensive boxed set expansion for 5E and A5E!
The Future of D&D
- Thread starter ArcaneSpringboard
- Start date
Why would this game sell? I have a shelf of 3.x and a shelf of 4e, why would i buy this game?
Mercurius
Legend
Thanks, good read. I also enjoyed NewbieGM's and NeoGrognard's takes - all three blogs resonate with my own.
NeoGrognard's take in particular makes me wonder if I'm too conservative in my 2014 prediction. Sure, that corresponds with the 40th Anniversary, but as someone mentioned in the thread I linked to, WotC could do something nifty like publish anniversary core rulebooks of every major edition, including 5E. Or they could merely publish a fancy version of the 5E core rulebooks.
NeoGrognard seems to have a sense of what he's talking about and his instincts tell him we'll get a GenCon announcement this year, which could mean a new edition as soon as 2012. That still seems a bit soon to me, but who knows? If 4E is doing as poorly as I suspect it is then 2012 is more plausible. But I still think 2013 or 2014 is more likely. Even if they announced at GenCon this year, I could see WotC not wanting to make the mistakes of the past, and also take a lesson from Paizo, and have an alpha/beta playtest phase - all of 2012. And then they could coast for a year and a half or so, experiment with new products, focus on DDI and board games, and make sure 5E is a great product before they publish it in 2013.
NeoGrognard's take in particular makes me wonder if I'm too conservative in my 2014 prediction. Sure, that corresponds with the 40th Anniversary, but as someone mentioned in the thread I linked to, WotC could do something nifty like publish anniversary core rulebooks of every major edition, including 5E. Or they could merely publish a fancy version of the 5E core rulebooks.
NeoGrognard seems to have a sense of what he's talking about and his instincts tell him we'll get a GenCon announcement this year, which could mean a new edition as soon as 2012. That still seems a bit soon to me, but who knows? If 4E is doing as poorly as I suspect it is then 2012 is more plausible. But I still think 2013 or 2014 is more likely. Even if they announced at GenCon this year, I could see WotC not wanting to make the mistakes of the past, and also take a lesson from Paizo, and have an alpha/beta playtest phase - all of 2012. And then they could coast for a year and a half or so, experiment with new products, focus on DDI and board games, and make sure 5E is a great product before they publish it in 2013.
What's interesting about the playtest part, is that if you look at the original books in 4e, the PHB, DMG, and MM; there's a massive list of playtesters.
Paizo did their open alpha and beta because they simply can't pay testing to be done in house, and under seal of NDA.
It's also hard to say which is ultimately better, having the anonymous and very opinionated internet hordes tearing your game apart, or having a very small, but very well chosen subset for testing of ideas and game play. Both have very good advantages and very bad disadvantages.
As for a new edition? Who knows. Maybe the announcement is the concession that essentials is pretty much 4.5. Since they decided to re-work the design paradigms and the new numbers, they're only going that direction. They're effectively going to drop anything before hand, and re-write anything that needs to fit into the new design paradigm. Kinda like they're doing now. Only, they're going to explicitly say that while the old PHB's are still legal and workable in the current rules, they will re-release most of the classes in the Essential Paradigm.
Or not. A new full edition in less than 4 years? Isn't that way too soon?
Paizo did their open alpha and beta because they simply can't pay testing to be done in house, and under seal of NDA.
It's also hard to say which is ultimately better, having the anonymous and very opinionated internet hordes tearing your game apart, or having a very small, but very well chosen subset for testing of ideas and game play. Both have very good advantages and very bad disadvantages.
As for a new edition? Who knows. Maybe the announcement is the concession that essentials is pretty much 4.5. Since they decided to re-work the design paradigms and the new numbers, they're only going that direction. They're effectively going to drop anything before hand, and re-write anything that needs to fit into the new design paradigm. Kinda like they're doing now. Only, they're going to explicitly say that while the old PHB's are still legal and workable in the current rules, they will re-release most of the classes in the Essential Paradigm.
Or not. A new full edition in less than 4 years? Isn't that way too soon?
AbdulAlhazred
Legend
Eh, I'm not convinced. I don't think your suggestions are bad, though I'm not at all convinced you could pull off a 'dual edition' kind of thing. I just don't think they're going to try to roll out a new edition this soon. I'm not convinced they consider 4e to be a flop either.
I mean lets be realistic, PF has a certain audience. Another edition of D&D which is still a pretty radical departure from previous editions isn't likely to make a lot of headway with that audience. It might grab a few of them, but it is just as likely to risk turning off fans of 4e or simply create enough buyer fatigue that it simply won't sell all that well.
I think it is more likely that Hasbro will do what Hasbro typically does with properties which are currently not in a popular phase, which is to just pull back, keep a toe in the market and wait for an opportunity to come back with a strong entry later. In fact recent events kind of hint at something like that. Cut back on your largest expenses, focus on the part of the product line (DDI perhaps) which gives the greatest bang for the buck, and give it a rest for a few years. They can put out a couple books a year, a couple other trial balloon products, some D&D themed board games etc.
So I'd more suspect that maybe in 2-3 years we'll start to see some noises about developing a new edition of the game. It may or may not be closely aligned to the current game. It could be designed from the ground up for instance as a lighter game, or more intended to work well online from the ground up, etc. It could be more retrospective. It could be who knows what. That probably depends a lot on what the market looks like in a few years and what technology is prevalent.
I mean lets be realistic, PF has a certain audience. Another edition of D&D which is still a pretty radical departure from previous editions isn't likely to make a lot of headway with that audience. It might grab a few of them, but it is just as likely to risk turning off fans of 4e or simply create enough buyer fatigue that it simply won't sell all that well.
I think it is more likely that Hasbro will do what Hasbro typically does with properties which are currently not in a popular phase, which is to just pull back, keep a toe in the market and wait for an opportunity to come back with a strong entry later. In fact recent events kind of hint at something like that. Cut back on your largest expenses, focus on the part of the product line (DDI perhaps) which gives the greatest bang for the buck, and give it a rest for a few years. They can put out a couple books a year, a couple other trial balloon products, some D&D themed board games etc.
So I'd more suspect that maybe in 2-3 years we'll start to see some noises about developing a new edition of the game. It may or may not be closely aligned to the current game. It could be designed from the ground up for instance as a lighter game, or more intended to work well online from the ground up, etc. It could be more retrospective. It could be who knows what. That probably depends a lot on what the market looks like in a few years and what technology is prevalent.
fuzzlewump
First Post
This is probably obvious, but such predictions bother me. No one will care if they are wrong, as they will be forgotten. But if they're right, woo!!!, they've predicted the future and know a ton about how D&D as a business works.
Other than that, Fourthcore has quite a few of those design goals already, right there in the best edition of D&D. (IME, YMMV etc) What is Fourthcore? | Save Versus Death
Other than that, Fourthcore has quite a few of those design goals already, right there in the best edition of D&D. (IME, YMMV etc) What is Fourthcore? | Save Versus Death
Considering it takes years of time and money to develop a new functioning edition of the game (4th began development in 2005 and was not out till mid '08), this would mean that WotC more or less began building a new edition 1 year into the game's life cycle, in addition to the frenetic three-book-a-month publishing cycle they kept up for three years. For a company that is known to have a perpetually shrinking staff, that's a mighty impressive feat.
Yeah, I call shenanagins.
Nothing to see here folks. Move along. Just more humbug.
Yeah, I call shenanagins.
Nothing to see here folks. Move along. Just more humbug.
Dice4Hire
First Post
True.
Once DDI is totally set up, then I will start thinking WOTC is seriously thinking of what to do next.
delericho
Legend
DDI makes it less likely there will be a new edition, not more likely.
For any 5e to succeed, it probably has to be significantly different from 4e. The motivation for a new edition has to be to bring in new players, whether those are lapsed players, or those who rejected 4e for Pathfinder/3e/retro-clones/other games. However, the "Red Box" was targetted at truly lapsed players, and doesn't seem to have set the world alight. So, the target this time must be the Pathfinder/other crowd. And those are people who can be assumed to have looked at 4e, and decided against. So, something different is needed.
The problem is that a significantly-different 5e would render the existing DDI tools obselete. They would need thrown out and replaced, with very little reuse possible. (The VTT being an exception, but it's not yet released. Curious that that now seems to be the priority...)
What that means is that if WotC are planning a 5e, the best time to do so is now, not after they've invested the monies required to 'complete' the DDI. That would just be a waste.
(The one exception to this is if they consider the DDI a failure, and are planning a 5e that simply does not include one. In which case, they may seek a way to exit the DDI strategy 'gracefully' - which might well suggest completing at least the Virtual Tabletop. However, I don't consider this very likely on two counts: Firstly, I'm pretty sure the DDI isn't a failure, at least financially; secondly, I doubt WotC would care about a 'graceful' exit - summary cancellation would be more likely.)
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