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The Future of D&D

DDI makes it less likely there will be a new edition, not more likely.

For any 5e to succeed, it probably has to be significantly different from 4e. The motivation for a new edition has to be to bring in new players, whether those are lapsed players, or those who rejected 4e for Pathfinder/3e/retro-clones/other games. However, the "Red Box" was targetted at truly lapsed players, and doesn't seem to have set the world alight. So, the target this time must be the Pathfinder/other crowd. And those are people who can be assumed to have looked at 4e, and decided against. So, something different is needed.

The problem is that a significantly-different 5e would render the existing DDI tools obselete. They would need thrown out and replaced, with very little reuse possible. (The VTT being an exception, but it's not yet released. Curious that that now seems to be the priority...)

What that means is that if WotC are planning a 5e, the best time to do so is now, not after they've invested the monies required to 'complete' the DDI. That would just be a waste.

(The one exception to this is if they consider the DDI a failure, and are planning a 5e that simply does not include one. In which case, they may seek a way to exit the DDI strategy 'gracefully' - which might well suggest completing at least the Virtual Tabletop. However, I don't consider this very likely on two counts: Firstly, I'm pretty sure the DDI isn't a failure, at least financially; secondly, I doubt WotC would care about a 'graceful' exit - summary cancellation would be more likely.)

Eh, I don't think it is the issue you do. I think DDI is only at the beginning of its evolution. The big issues are how overall it will work best. Given the number of DDI subscribers I think it is hard to imagine it being considered any kind of failure. Once the concept is firmly worked out making a '5e DDI' won't be THAT big an issue. The basic framework will be established. If 5e is in some way substantially different it will still benefit hugely from the work that has been done on 4e. Also I don't think the much vaunted 'split' is as big a deal as some people think it is. 4e successfully broke with previous editions. I don't get the impression there is a vast need to rework things totally. A second cut at a new design will certainly improve on what we have now, but it needn't go back to the drawing board entirely. I think a lot of little details will change, but the basic concept is established.
 

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Zaran

Adventurer
You guys are assuming that 5th edition will be alot different. It won't be so much different that they would have to throw everything out. With 4e being the exception all the editions were close enough that one could use source material from any edition. 4e is a good system and I seriuiys doubt they will change it much. Just enough to make a new set of core books

I still think 5e is not being worked on. I don't think they have the manpower to do any more than they are now.
 

Nahat Anoj

First Post
I think it is more likely that Hasbro will do what Hasbro typically does with properties which are currently not in a popular phase, which is to just pull back, keep a toe in the market and wait for an opportunity to come back with a strong entry later. In fact recent events kind of hint at something like that. Cut back on your largest expenses, focus on the part of the product line (DDI perhaps) which gives the greatest bang for the buck, and give it a rest for a few years. They can put out a couple books a year, a couple other trial balloon products, some D&D themed board games etc.
I think this is a good observation. They'll just let the brand lie fallow, more or less, and wait a couple of years.
 

You guys are assuming that 5th edition will be alot different. It won't be so much different that they would have to throw everything out. With 4e being the exception all the editions were close enough that one could use source material from any edition. 4e is a good system and I seriuiys doubt they will change it much. Just enough to make a new set of core books

I still think 5e is not being worked on. I don't think they have the manpower to do any more than they are now.

I agree actually. I think when, as seems eventually inevitable, there is a 5e it will be mostly a refinement of 4e. It may change a lot of little details, but I think it will leverage the majority of the concepts and structure introduced in 4e and be recognizably a derivative of 4e. I'm not sure it will be as close a sibling as 2e was of 1e, maybe more like 2e vs 3e. Some things will change, most things won't.

And yeah, frankly I will be very surprised if it comes out any time before 2014 and may well be somewhere out past that time frame.
 

Scribble

First Post
Maybe August will come around and prove me wrong, but I honestly don't think there will be a 5e for a very long time, if ever.

That's not to say there won't be changes and additions to the game that will make it "feel" like a new edition, but an actual 5th edition? I just don't see it.

The way 4e is set up right now, I see them modifying it the way they did with Essentials and Gamma World. I remember back in the day they talked about wanting the 4e system to function sort of like the Magic The Gathering idea... No real edition remakes, but modifications and tweaks along the way.

It started with Essentials and I think they'll keep doing that until they build a system people love.


I kind of get the feeling this is why Mearls has been doing the various I love the game and all the different play styles things. I think he's going to be replacing Slavicsek.
 

Maybe August will come around and prove me wrong, but I honestly don't think there will be a 5e for a very long time, if ever.

That's not to say there won't be changes and additions to the game that will make it "feel" like a new edition, but an actual 5th edition? I just don't see it.

The way 4e is set up right now, I see them modifying it the way they did with Essentials and Gamma World. I remember back in the day they talked about wanting the 4e system to function sort of like the Magic The Gathering idea... No real edition remakes, but modifications and tweaks along the way.

It started with Essentials and I think they'll keep doing that until they build a system people love.


I kind of get the feeling this is why Mearls has been doing the various I love the game and all the different play styles things. I think he's going to be replacing Slavicsek.

I think that WAS the concept. 4e would be essentially a slick, modern, evergreen kind of system that would simply be a core engine that was modular enough and tweakable enough to simply evolve without explicitly invalidating old content basically in perpetuity.

The problem is there are CORE issues. The engine is reasonably well designed but there are issues with the game which simply cannot be solved without a rework of the core mechanics. Not a huge rework, but nevertheless a significant enough one that it would be fundamentally incompatible with 4e.

Not that I think they are going to DO such a change anytime soon. I agree with you entirely there. I think part of the problem within WotC and in the 4e dev group is that it is being ground up by this very issue. They are hung on the horns of a dilemma which has several dimensions. Do they keep churning out material which has issues because it is based on a core engine that has issues? Do they write a new engine and effectively end up with an edition roll? How would they do that? There is obviously some dissatisfaction both in the community and within the dev group over aspects of 4e. Yet changing it would bring the dreaded edition break with all its negative connotations and potential to lose audience.

What does a product R&D group actually do with 4e as it stands now? I can easily see why Bill might have decided to cash it in or been replaced. There's simply no good set of choices someone in that position can make that will please all the stakeholders.
 

UngainlyTitan

Legend
Supporter
I think that WAS the concept. 4e would be essentially a slick, modern, evergreen kind of system that would simply be a core engine that was modular enough and tweakable enough to simply evolve without explicitly invalidating old content basically in perpetuity.

The problem is there are CORE issues.

snip...
If you don't mind, what in your opinion are these core issues?
 

Saracenus

Always In School Gamer
I think that when the big shoe drops we will have a better idea where D&D and WotC are headed. What big shoe you ask?

The announcement of Bill's replacement.

Who they name Director of RPG R&D will be the first signal. And I will bet we hear about this before PAX or GenCon.

My two coppers,
 

If you don't mind, what in your opinion are these core issues?

General bonus progression (to hit particularly, but others are relevant as well) is a big one. Right now 4e assumes it will come from a number of sources, half level, ability score, and enhancement at the very least. Several questions beg to be answered here:

Is it necessary to have an ever increasing to-hit bonus at all? In many respects I don't see that this actually works very well. It forces the game into a 'treadmill' format for one thing. This was primarily intended to provide a sense of progression, but is it really doing that very well? Is it necessary or are there already other good ways to accomplish this? In other words what if you just blew away all progressing to-hit bonuses? Monsters would still have increasing damage output and hit points. Low level PCs would have SOME increased effectiveness against higher level monsters, but you'd still have plenty of scope for increased threat level. Defenses would obviously no longer progress either, but higher level monsters could still certainly have somewhat increased defenses (and to-hit as well for that matter). You would now be free to provide things like enhancement, feat, etc bonuses as genuine rewards to the character. A +1 sword would forever be an advantage of the same degree throughout the character's lifetime for instance.

The same issues arise with ability score bumps. They channelize characters into narrow specializations in a rather artificial way. The fighter cannot be a decent bowman because his crappy dexterity (even if it starts good it will soon be crap compared to his ever increasing STR) means it isn't a viable path. There are work arounds like some feat patch or alternate sets of STR based powers to use with a bow, but they have their own disadvantages.

Again this rears its ugly head with skills. If skill bonuses were simply absolute values that didn't increase with level then certain issues people have had with the skill system go away. Again it allows characters a broader range of abilities that remain relevant throughout their careers. It also kills off the vast majority of the growing gulf between the best and worst skill bonuses as levels go up. It would open up skills working vs defenses in a much more equivalent way to attacks, which again fixes several awkward little problems and opens up more design space.

Many other issues suddenly go away as well, such as the dichotomy between heavy and light armor and all the subsidiary issues with non-dex light armor classes and the need for various feats and class features that patch up that mess. The armor system is also simplified with no more need for 'masterwork armor' or the uneven armor bonus increases of Essentials (which is basically the same thing). Again an enhancement bonus becomes something that remains relatively advantageous throughout the character's lifetime.

Combat is nicely tactical and in many ways elegant, but the system is overcomplex in ways which haven't really panned out. There's no need for the level of complexity of immediate action types and OAs for instance. This stuff could be substantially streamlined. It would impact a lot of powers and whatnot but presumably the power system would evolve to match.

Powers themselves are a large mess IMHO. The level of distinctions were too fine-grained. This has led to a plethora of powers which deploy a vast array of very similar but not identical effects. In play they really aren't all that distinct except in terms of fluff. A lesser number of power choices with greater distinctiveness between powers and specific types of effects more restricted to specific power types would make more sense, be vastly simpler on the players, provide the same degree of tactical flexibility, and move a lot of build distinctiveness that is now forced into other elements back into powers. This would make it easier to build out specific concepts as they would be much closer to just 'pick this and this power' vs the need to plan which 5 feats etc you have to juggle into place to make your concept work. This would be a great easing of the design burden on developers too and lower the bar to new content.

I could go on. None of these things are really serious issues with the 4e engine CONCEPTUALLY as a straight d20 based roll-high combat system or the basic concept of defenses, saves, conditions, structure of the tactical game, etc. They are simply issues that arose organically out of the details of how that engine was implemented and which have had negative impacts on the rest of the game. I think this is basically due to the fact that the game was a fairly new design and the developers couldn't easily see what the impact of each decision would be until they implemented it, at which point it was very hard to go back and change those decisions since it meant reworking everything else on top of that. So the core engine design froze pretty early on, and everything else had to work around the lumps.

Notice too, EVERYTHING I propose is almost entirely subtractive. Subtractive changes to the game are not really possible using an exception based system of extension design. 4e is great, but it does a few too many things. Simplifying the core engine by 30% could turn a very good game into the RPG of the century.
 

Windjammer

Adventurer
I think that when the big shoe drops we will have a better idea where D&D and WotC are headed. What big shoe you ask?

The announcement of Bill's replacement.

Who they name Director of RPG R&D will be the first signal.

A new direction would be much welcome, but I think it's more likely taht Chris Perkins takes up that shoe. They're downsizing, not expanding/getting in fresh blood.
 

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