JoeGKushner said:
When I see the good reception a $70 boxed set like the Wilderlands gets, or how much I enjoyed Shackled City, or how many people I know have World's Largest Dungoen, and look to the near future and see books like Ptlous and Game of Thones coming out, at their price points, I don't think a dying market could support them.
I do think that the market may be shrinking in terms of people buying everything in sight, but I think part of that was due to the amount of material put out initially and buyers are becoming smarter.
Opinions?
I'd say that's true. When the entire 3rd edition/2d0 thing started I was buying almost everything in sight. Now I focus on products from a few companies I trust, or products that have received good reviews here on EN World. I still buy quite a bit, but am much more selective.
Every edition of a game sees a rise and fall in what consumers will buy. The edition comes out and everybody jumps at the new books, and over a few years slowly reduces their consumption. However, I think the current market (especially for d20 books) is unique.
Now we have a large collection of publishers, both online and print, to cater to the market. I also think that this plethora of publishers can keep d20 viable for much longer than would have been possible had only Wizards been putting out material. Everytime a publisher comes out with a big new release (Ptolus, GoT, Wilderlands, Iron Kingdoms and even books like Mutants and Masterminds 2nd) I think the market takes another upswing in some form.
I think what we're seeing is supplement-specific swings in the market. At the begining we saw an increase in adventures (especially amongst 3rd party publishers). That dies away and we saw the rise in support material (PRC, feats, etc...). Now I think we're in a period where complete campaigns are selling big (WLD, Ptolus, Drow War, Shackled City,...). We are also seeing an upswing in higher priced, prestige books.
What i do see, however, is a splitting of the market. At the begining people were buying everything. Now I think you see more people focusing on one type of book (campaign settings, adventures, alternate rule-sets, monster books, support material). Personally I've fallen into the campaign setting and adventure group, prefering those types of books over purely mechanical material, or monster books.
I don't necessarily think splitting the market is bad, though. Instead I think publishers are specializing and focusing on the specific needs of their customers, which I, for one, am glad to see.