loseth said:
I think that one thing we have to keep in mind is that although the number of potential customers Paizo is looking at with 3.75 is tiny incomparison to the number they'd be looking at going with 4e, the overwhelming majority of their potential 3.75 customers probably have a track record of buying products just like the ones Paizo wants to sell, and that makes a world of difference.
I think that is the hang up here ...
No one argues that Paizon doesnt make some kick ass products.
No one is saying that the choice to go Pathfinder will open up the cracks of hell and rain dooooom upon that company swallowing it into the abyss.
What is being said is that there was a meeting, and around that meeting there were choices.
Invest time & resources which are limited and finite especially in smaller companies into one of three options.
A ~ Support the new generation of roleplaying?
B ~ Support the old generation of roleplaying?
C ~ Build a 4E knockoff and try to carve out your own market?
Unless you have been asleep for the last two decades you know that aside from emo board whines about the destruction of their favorite hobby the PAYING portion of the gamer market has swapped over quite readily from BEMCI to AD&D to AD&D2E then to Skill&Powers (AD&D 2.5 as far as I am concerned) to 3E to 3.5E.
Analysts call this a trend ...
If the PAYING portion of the market is largely going over to 4E (and Paizo could care less if 100 MILLION gamers dont swap to 4E, they only care about where the folks that buy products are going) what to do?
Choice A ~ Has issues witht he OGL. Hasbro legal I suspect as the corporate overlords to WotC is being a pain in the ass. 5K though is a drop in the bucket for a publisher like Paizo and if that is the only barrier to entry then they should gladly pay it. Being one of a small handfull of 3rd party publishers allowed to publish data with a name recognition is like paying 5K for a limited monopoly. Its a GOOD THING (albeit handled in a sucky manner).
Choice B ~ Has dwindling market issues ... but the 3.5E is still greater than the next choice ...
Choice C ~ Of those who dont go 4E ... Of those who still buy new game products ... Of those willing to convert their game group to a system with compatibility issues with 3.5 which moves away from there "ease of use" core market ... You find your new target area.
You can argue until you are
BLUE in the face that size doesnt matter (thats what she said!) or that they will be just fine, but you miss the basic point.
Market of Choice A > Market of Choice B > Market of Choice C.
If you want to pick a market and you select C ... then yes ... as I originally suggested ... bonehead move.
Some companies have no other choices, and are forced to make do with shrinking markets or deal with issues beyond their control. Paizo had a choice.
They chose poorly.