Why 5E may be the last edition of D&D

[Parmandur]

Now might even be a fad, few years later its over.

5E I doubt won't last 20 odd years like some are speculating the only D&Ds to come close to that would be Basic which in effect had around 4 or 5 sub versions (Holmes, Moldvay, BECMI, Black Box etc) was technically around for 19 years (77-96 IIRC) but was more or less out of print/on life support for some of those years. 3.X if you count 3.0, 3.5, Pathfinder as the same system but I don't think we'll see WoTC drop the ball again.

Sooner or later the books will plateau but they can always go down the spam some splats path for a year or 3 or see how will campaign settings etc do. See what sales are like in year 6 and 8, its really to early and most sales of D&D come early in the editions lifetime and 5E is following that trend.

A D&D movie won't land for 2 years minimum even if they start filming in the next 6 months and D&D and good movies don't go hand in hand. The entire RPG market yearly sales would only pay around a quarter of a AAA+ game or block buster movies production values. That is the main reason you're not going to see a good D&D movie or game unless you get some cheap indie development that blows up.

Same reason most of the good D&D games date from the late 90's and early 2000's. Game development back then was around $4 million, now its in the $80-200 million range, at least for a decent big budget version. The number of 90%+ rated titles on the PS2 is another example.


People are getting carried away methinks with how big D&D actually is.

WotC doesn't foot the bill for the film production, Paramount Pictures does. The reason they are paying Habro for the privelage of making a toy commercial is because LotR was big, Game of Thrones is big, and there is potential money to be made.

Just because previous films have been bad, doesn't mean that they have to be bad.

Sales don't necessarily need to be book and bust, if an evergreen business model is adapted and new customers are groomed with things like early reader books, children's picture books, etc.

They don't need to resell everything to a small core group every few years, if they get new kids to start every year.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

Only way we will have a final edition is the IP tanks so hard its worthless.

Even the Amazon rankings show D&D is on a downward trend, it used to be in the to 100. Eventually they will hit saturation point (everyone who wants 5E has 5E).

Core book sales are always the thing, the 5E new releases hang aorund for a bit but not like the core rules. I would be surprised if they announce 6E in the next 2 years, if they did it we're looking at 2022 minimum release (8 year cycle), and I lean more towards 10 myself and no more than 12.

The IP outside the RPG is a pipe dream. There will be no AAA+ game or smash hit movie in the next 2-3 years, towards the end of the 5E lifecycle at best (personally I think its vapourware). Tie in T-Shirts and mugs and crappy games are the best its gonna get. A slow 5E decline is to be expected, I can't see how that could kill the IP although maybe some sort of corporate shenanigans could do it in as well as the IP becoming worthless (new CEO hate D&D/RPG's).

Betting man 10 years give or take a year.

Now might even be a fad, few years later its over.

Sooner or later the books will plateau but they can always go down the spam some splats path for a year or 3 or see how will campaign settings etc do. See what sales are like in year 6 and 8, its really to early and most sales of D&D come early in the editions lifetime and 5E is following that trend.

A D&D movie won't land for 2 years minimum even if they start filming in the next 6 months and D&D and good movies don't go hand in hand. The entire RPG market yearly sales would only pay around a quarter of a AAA+ game or block buster movies production values. That is the main reason you're not going to see a good D&D movie or game unless you get some cheap indie development that blows up.

Same reason most of the good D&D games date from the late 90's and early 2000's. Game development back then was around $4 million, now its in the $80-200 million range, at least for a decent big budget version. The number of 90%+ rated titles on the PS2 is another example.


People are getting carried away methinks with how big D&D actually is.

That isn’t how films or games work. Wotc wouldn’t be footing the bill. Obsidian or whoever would get a licensing deal, and the combined market of people who love Obsidian games, and people who are interested in DnD, would make for a successful game (as long as it’s good).

Same thing with films.

In fact, I think this is why they haven’t been pursuing such things as much the last 4 years. They know that they can use it to revitalize the franchise when it starts to plateu. They can make a deal with Bathesda or whoever, coordinate on the story line, make an AL season and big AP along the same themes, and put out a book focusing on the setting, factions, monsters, major NPCs, and heroic options, involved in the game or movie.

Wotc doesn’t have to put forth any cash for this stuff.

 

[DM Howard]

That isn’t how films or games work. Wotc wouldn’t be footing the bill. Obsidian or whoever would get a licensing deal, and the combined market of people who love Obsidian games, and people who are interested in DnD, would make for a successful game (as long as it’s good).

Same thing with films.

In fact, I think this is why they haven’t been pursuing such things as much the last 4 years. They know that they can use it to revitalize the franchise when it starts to plateu. They can make a deal with Bathesda or whoever, coordinate on the story line, make an AL season and big AP along the same themes, and put out a book focusing on the setting, factions, monsters, major NPCs, and heroic options, involved in the game or movie.

Wotc doesn’t have to put forth any cash for this stuff.

I might be wrong, but I think Zardnaar's point is that people may be overestimating the brand power of D&D. Yes, D&D is awesome, I think it is great and so do many others, but that doesn't necessarily mean that potential licensees (such as EA or what have you) see think the D&D brand is poweful enough to make a quality investment in capital.

 

[Quartz]

One book that might be interesting to see would be something like a guide to world building so DM's get tools and advice on how to create and run their own custom world and setting.

There was a series of articles in Dragon or Dungeon about that. They could put those together as a small booklet.

 

[schnee]

I wouldn't hold my breath when it comes to the idea of WotC doing a new edition the way Savage Worlds does it. WotC has a tendency to drastically change things. ...
I would prefer them to do small changes, like from 1st to 2nd editions, or 3rd to 3.5. And I would want a 6th edition at the earliest 2024. Give us the chance to enjoy an edition for at least 10 years, Wizards. Hell, at the rate things get released, you could probably stretch 5th out for 20 years.

Don't underestimate how different this company is today.

It's very strong on listening to customer feedback, quantitative research, and they do a LOT of looking around beyond that. I saw a talk they gave at a design conference, and their approach is far more like a Silicon Valley design-driven firm than the old 'throw we like over the fence' WOTC.

They are verrrrry careful now. I bet you'll get your wish.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

I might be wrong, but I think Zardnaar's point is that people may be overestimating the brand power of D&D. Yes, D&D is awesome, I think it is great and so do many others, but that doesn't necessarily mean that potential licensees (such as EA or what have you) see think the D&D brand is poweful enough to make a quality investment in capital.

That makes more sense, but still doesn’t follow, IMO. Books with far smaller fandoms make successful movie franchises, and the good dnd games have always sold very well.

Any studio whose games draw a strong following on their own name, combined with the millions of Americans alone playing dnd right now, is a much bigger customer base than the Elder Scrolls or fallout name.

 

[Zardnaar]

That isn’t how films or games work. Wotc wouldn’t be footing the bill. Obsidian or whoever would get a licensing deal, and the combined market of people who love Obsidian games, and people who are interested in DnD, would make for a successful game (as long as it’s good).

Same thing with films.

In fact, I think this is why they haven’t been pursuing such things as much the last 4 years. They know that they can use it to revitalize the franchise when it starts to plateu. They can make a deal with Bathesda or whoever, coordinate on the story line, make an AL season and big AP along the same themes, and put out a book focusing on the setting, factions, monsters, major NPCs, and heroic options, involved in the game or movie.

Wotc doesn’t have to put forth any cash for this stuff.

I'm well aware of that but thoe studios (game/m,ovies) won't be funding a D&D game to the extent they would do their own IPs.


For Example Wicher III was an $80 million dollar game, Assassins Creed Unity or Syndicate was 100+ million, GTAV was 200+ million.

Yes you will get someone paying a license fee but in movie terms you are going to have a low budget D&D movie and since D&D would kind of need good special effects and a big budget that is a problem.

So at best you will get a low budget or mid priced budget game or movie hat if it had a super strong story and resonated with a lot of people could blow up. But since D&D by itself doesn't have that in of built in story a movie would really be about some D&D tropes in a generic fantasy movies.

For example Game of Thrones, GRR Martin wrote that story makes an adaption easier and the price of a season of GoT is probably bigger than a D&D movie budget and GoT is reasonably cheap compared to a big budget movie which is hundreds of millions of dollars.

This is basic economics facing the reality of D&D game or movie now. Unlike other licensed IPs like Harry Potter or GoT you dont have a story to build off and the fanbase isn't enough.

 

[Parmandur]

I'm well aware of that but thoe studios (game/m,ovies) won't be funding a D&D game to the extent they would do their own IPs.


For Example Wicher III was an $80 million dollar game, Assassins Creed Unity or Syndicate was 100+ million, GTAV was 200+ million.

Yes you will get someone paying a license fee but in movie terms you are going to have a low budget D&D movie and since D&D would kind of need good special effects and a big budget that is a problem.

So at best you will get a low budget or mid priced budget game or movie hat if it had a super strong story and resonated with a lot of people could blow up. But since D&D by itself doesn't have that in of built in story a movie would really be about some D&D tropes in a generic fantasy movies.

For example Game of Thrones, GRR Martin wrote that story makes an adaption easier and the price of a season of GoT is probably bigger than a D&D movie budget and GoT is reasonably cheap compared to a big budget movie which is hundreds of millions of dollars.

This is basic economics facing the reality of D&D game or movie now. Unlike other licensed IPs like Harry Potter or GoT you dont have a story to build off and the fanbase isn't enough.

On the contrary, Paramount has put a rather ridiculous amount into the Transformers movies, an IP wholly owned by Hasbro. The potential of toy money is a win-win for the studio. We are not looking at a low-budget film in the works, here.

 

[Zardnaar]

On the contrary, Paramount has put a rather ridiculous amount into the Transformers movies, an IP wholly owned by Hasbro. The potential of toy money is a win-win for the studio. We are not looking at a low-budget film in the works, here.

Big difference in scale. Transformers is worth a lot more than D&D was at any point in their overlapping history. It was massive in the 80's even compared with 80's golden age D&D. All those 80'skids are adults now often with kids of their own. Some played D&D, huge numbers had transformers. Transformers is also on a downwards spiral (style over substance crap story telling).

And they had a plotline there the movies could follow up on. That is mass market penetration.

 

[Parmandur]

Big difference in scale. Transformers is worth a lot more than D&D was at any point in their overlapping history. It was massive in the 80's even compared with 80's golden age D&D. All those 80'skids are adults now often with kids of their own. Some played D&D, huge numbers had transformers. Transformers is also on a downwards spiral (style over substance crap story telling).

And they had a plotline there the movies could follow up on. That is mass market penetration.

The studios are looking for big budget franchises: if you want an indication of what level of budget D&D will get, look at the release date they have set for it.