Wierd Pete's lament in KODT #116 - is it true???

[teitan]

WB, its been analyzed in ICV2 and Game Trade.. it IS because of online gaming and console games that RPG sales are down. I read these everytime they come out. I don't think the release of a new WOD HURT RPG sales, it SHOULD have helped but was instead a disappointment. It didn't perform to expectations in spite of following the D&D model of a cheap ass core rule book as a loss leader. World of Darkness was expected to be huge but instead many fans were turned off by the idea of having to get all new rulebooks etc because the beauty of the old White WOlf stuff was that it wasn't the character sheet that changed, it was the rules interpretations and you could use your old stuff with no conversions. There went that novel concept. There were also nasty rumours about the rules and the products having a "same old, same old" feel to them and "why was this needed" arguements.

Exalted 2e has not performed to expectations... Sure, the glut of crap D20 products didn't help but that bubble lasted a hell of alot longer than expected but I doubt that a glut of D20 products hurt RPG sales across the board in the way that they were hit in the last 2-3 years. As I said, that was expected to happen much earlier than it did.

 

[teitan]

* Lots of new editions of existing products without an obvious must-buy factor (witness how many of the publishers you cited specifically told people they didn't need to buy the new version of their products in an attempt to soothe their outrage),

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I didn't read ALL of your response and then I did so this is the rest of my rebuttal... I didn't say the above. I said they WEREN'T doing that because it would be shooting themselves in the foot.

<bold>MMORPGs have gone up in total subscriber numbers non-stop since their introduction. Waiting for MMORPGs to stop being popular is like waiting for the Internet fad to be over. If anything, MMORPGs are going more mainstream, with the exploding popularity of XBox Live, Disney coming out with their second MMORPG next year, and so on.
</bold>

And Magic continued to climb in sales for several years as well. Trust me, people will get tired of staring at a computer screen and go out again...

<bold>
The current products cost too much. The answer isn't to throw up their hands and say "woe is us, we are helpless!" The answer is to change the products.
</bold>

Who said that?

<bold>Given that there's a thread on this message board about whether or not a certain high-end product is available on Amazon, I'd say the secondary market is not just in existence, it's pretty well-known. Now, Amazon (and the like) will have massive impacts on the gaming industry, but I wouldn't say that they don't exist as a secondary market. They're the same market as the comic book industry's -- in fact, in most brick and mortar chain bookstores, you'll see the RPGs shelved adjacent to the graphic novels.
</bold>

You soooooooo don't understand what I meant. I wasn't referring to discount retailers etc. In comic books, the floppy, monthly issues are published as loss leaders and the trade is where the real money is at now. RPGs do not have that luxury because there is no guarantee that a first printing will have a total sell through in order to go to a different format for the reprint like comics can go into.

<bold>Wow, this simply isn't true. I can go down to Best Buy right now and pick up EverQuest I along with 25,000 expansions in a single box for $20 and not pay squat for a month. You sure can't do that with D&D. You can almost do it with World of Darkness, if you're going to be satisfied with playing an unpowered guy getting killed by the vaguely defined stuff at the back of the mortals book over and over (although I think dice will take you over $20, if you even could get it the book for that little at this point).
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You just restated my point about MMORPGs. The expansions come out and then a few months later the price goes down!!! RPG books can't do that unless its a used product. The publishers can't afford to cut the cost of the release in half a few months or even a few years later because books etc are more costly to produce.

<bold>

World of Warcraft, still one of the most expensive MMORPGs, by virtue of its astounding success, still has half the initial start-up cost as D&D and, again, you can play like a fiend for a month without paying any more. If you got a 10-day guest pass from a friend, you can go 41 days without paying anything other than the cost of the box. (And, in fact, Blizzard really doesn't care if you don't own your own box -- they really want your subscription fees instead, so you can sign up for an account without owning a box; that's what they're trying to enable with the free guest passes.)
</bold>

And look, AGAIN you restate my point!!


<bold>Huh? Sony Online Entertainment repackages the core game, plus all but the most current expansion, in a big almost-all-in-one package every time they squeeze out another expansion. That's like going to the store and picking up the three core books and discovering that everything 3.5 that was released before August of this year has now been crammed into those three books.
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And AGAIN!!!!!!!

<bold>You're right, you can't get the last expansion for $20. You can get it for essentially free, if you decide you don't need it when it first comes out.
</bold>

Talk about SAME PAGE and DEFINITELY making my point.
<bold>

Give us a true Basic Game (in the OD&D sense), including dice, and enabling months of play, for under $20. Make the books black and white, give us only five levels of advancement in the four core classes and three core races, whatever. Those rules can be contained in 16 pages. The only barrier to doing it that way is desire.</bold>

Dude, I've been asking for the same thing for years. It has happened... we call it Castles & Crusades. The core book is 20 bucks and the monster book is 20 bucks, which is CHEAPER than what Basic D&D would be if released today.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

WB, its been analyzed in ICV2 and Game Trade.. it IS because of online gaming and console games that RPG sales are down. I read these everytime they come out.

Care to share how they proved it? As it is, saying that "other people have proved it" isn't convincing in the least.

I don't think the release of a new WOD HURT RPG sales, it SHOULD have helped but was instead a disappointment. It didn't perform to expectations in spite of following the D&D model of a cheap ass core rule book as a loss leader. World of Darkness was expected to be huge but instead many fans were turned off by the idea of having to get all new rulebooks etc because the beauty of the old White WOlf stuff was that it wasn't the character sheet that changed, it was the rules interpretations and you could use your old stuff with no conversions. There went that novel concept. There were also nasty rumours about the rules and the products having a "same old, same old" feel to them and "why was this needed" arguements.

Er, you just reversed yourself at least once in that paragraph. Whatever White Wolf and other pros thought would happen with NWoD didn't work out and people didn't buy in at the same level -- many people have never bought the new books, certainly not to the same degree they once did. I know I went from having dozens of Vampire and Mage books to having one. (The Mage corebook, which I've never even read.)

Not WoW's fault, incidentally.

Exalted 2e has not performed to expectations...

WoW's fault?

Sure, the glut of crap D20 products didn't help but that bubble lasted a hell of alot longer than expected but I doubt that a glut of D20 products hurt RPG sales across the board in the way that they were hit in the last 2-3 years. As I said, that was expected to happen much earlier than it did.

So ... not WoW's fault that the good times eventually came to an end.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

I didn't read ALL of your response and then I did so this is the rest of my rebuttal... I didn't say the above. I said they WEREN'T doing that because it would be shooting themselves in the foot.

What are you talking about? I honestly can't understand what the heck you're saying.

The producers of those products absolutely did tell fans they didn't need to buy the second editions of the products. If the retailers are surprised that the fans listened, you should take it up with the producers who talked people out of buying the upgrades.

And Magic continued to climb in sales for several years as well. Trust me, people will get tired of staring at a computer screen and go out again...

In five years, I wonder if you'll be denying ever having said this, or be on Year 15 of your "MMORPG Deathwatch."

Who said that?

Pretty much all the RPG producers.

You soooooooo don't understand what I meant.

Yeah, between the contradictory statements, rambling sentences and unsupported statements, I had to take a stab at your meaning.

In comic books, the floppy, monthly issues are published as loss leaders and the trade is where the real money is at now. RPGs do not have that luxury because there is no guarantee that a first printing will have a total sell through in order to go to a different format for the reprint like comics can go into.

They can have that if they want to. Their current model isn't working. The decision to blame other people for their problems is pointless and non-productive. Changing the model is the only choice available to them if they actually want to survive as a business. I suspect plenty of folks would be just as happy as hobbyists who put out a book once or twice a year instead, and so are unwilling to do what's necessary.

Talk about SAME PAGE and DEFINITELY making my point.

I will pay you $10 if you start being concise enough so that your point is actually discernable.

Dude, I've been asking for the same thing for years. It has happened... we call it Castles & Crusades. The core book is 20 bucks and the monster book is 20 bucks, which is CHEAPER than what Basic D&D would be if released today.

Dude, that's swell, but unless you want the entire industry to rest on the Troll Lords' shoulders, it's a move that should be done by WotC and WWGS as well, as they're the market leaders and make up essentially the entire pie.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Oh, and HTML doesn't work on this board. Use [these brackets] instead of <those brackets>.

 

[Jim Hague]

WB, its been analyzed in ICV2 and Game Trade.. it IS because of online gaming and console games that RPG sales are down. I read these everytime they come out. I don't think the release of a new WOD HURT RPG sales, it SHOULD have helped but was instead a disappointment. It didn't perform to expectations in spite of following the D&D model of a cheap ass core rule book as a loss leader. World of Darkness was expected to be huge but instead many fans were turned off by the idea of having to get all new rulebooks etc because the beauty of the old White WOlf stuff was that it wasn't the character sheet that changed, it was the rules interpretations and you could use your old stuff with no conversions. There went that novel concept. There were also nasty rumours about the rules and the products having a "same old, same old" feel to them and "why was this needed" arguements.

Sorry, but no. As I pointed out above, there's been real, actual people that work in the industry that've gone over this, and far more blame can be laid at the feet of a broken distribution and guys like Osseum, along with an oversaturated market. There's zero causal link between MMO subscriptions and declining RPG sales. I don't know how to make it any plainer, really. We've seen the numbers, and while they're shaky, none of them indicate a loss of market to MMOs; it's two different markets. There might be some bleed-over, but by that reasoning the D&D MMO should have been a WoW killer, and it just ain't so. Two different markets.

 

[teitan]

Whizzy, I WAS talking about changing the model and about how RPG businesses don't have a model like comics do to fall back on. They NEED to change the model because the hardcover approach only works on RPG fans and the rising costs are making that hard to do as well.

Ok, WOW and the RPG market connection... it is entertainment dollars that both WoW and RPGs are going for. MMORPG I should say. They both have the same target demographic and similar price points. MMORPGs are the dominant recreation dollar amonst that similar target demographics being teen to young adult males with interest in fantasy etc. MMORPGs are taking away from the recreation dollars that games like D&D once received because they are easier to play, you don't have to find a group in your area, play ANY time etc. Examples of guild schedules etc do not stand up here, that is a specific element that is not necessary to play. MMORPGs are taking away dollars from table top RPGs, its a fact. So are consoles. When D&D was making money hand over fist it didn't have to compete with video games like WoW, Ultima, etc and the console market wasn't as dominating and important as it is now. Comics are suffering in sales for similar reasons. These are competing forms of entertainment and something has to break somewhere and the consoles and PC games are beating the hell out of comics and rpgs. Are they the sole blame? No, the collapse of distribution in both industries has hurt, the focus and continued incestuous practice of appealing only to long term players (or readers in the case of comics) as opposed to appealing to a new, younger audience (D&D is but the rest of the industry is being beaten by D&D by a WIDE margin) and the rising costs of materials have played a BIG hand in the downfall of the gamer market. Its a fact and competing with WoW for entertainment dollars is not helping at all. It's economics. WoW just happens to be the biggest target to use as an example of where these lost dollars are going. I mean c'mon 6mill user base is a LOT of money for a demographic that also finds appeal in table top RPGs etc.

RPG publishers NEED to adapt to the new market and find new ways to handle their product because the old ways aren't working. I think WOTC is onto something with the miniatures game and tieing it into D&D and Star Wars. Further tieing the two products to minis could help to increase their sales even further in the next edition. I'd like to see the mini pricepoint change myself, even if it means less minis per box, it means I can buy boosters more often. I know this is a move that would alienate a large portion of the RPG audience but it would also appeal to people not into RPGs and bring them into the hobby and also appeals to magic players, wargamers etc. It brings back D&D's mass appeal that it lost in the years between 2e and 3e.

 

[Jim Hague]

Ok, WOW and the RPG market connection... it is entertainment dollars that both WoW and RPGs are going for. MMORPG I should say. They both have the same target demographic and similar price points. MMORPGs are the dominant recreation dollar amonst that similar target demographics being teen to young adult males with interest in fantasy etc. MMORPGs are taking away from the recreation dollars that games like D&D once received because they are easier to play, you don't have to find a group in your area, play ANY time etc. Examples of guild schedules etc do not stand up here, that is a specific element that is not necessary to play. MMORPGs are taking away dollars from table top RPGs, its a fact. So are consoles. When D&D was making money hand over fist it didn't have to compete with video games like WoW, Ultima, etc and the console market wasn't as dominating and important as it is now. Comics are suffering in sales for similar reasons. These are competing forms of entertainment and something has to break somewhere and the consoles and PC games are beating the hell out of comics and rpgs. Are they the sole blame? No, the collapse of distribution in both industries has hurt, the focus and continued incestuous practice of appealing only to long term players (or readers in the case of comics) as opposed to appealing to a new, younger audience (D&D is but the rest of the industry is being beaten by D&D by a WIDE margin) and the rising costs of materials have played a BIG hand in the downfall of the gamer market. Its a fact and competing with WoW for entertainment dollars is not helping at all. It's economics. WoW just happens to be the biggest target to use as an example of where these lost dollars are going. I mean c'mon 6mill user base is a LOT of money for a demographic that also finds appeal in table top RPGs etc.

You realize you're saying video games are analogous to books, movies, cable television, and RPGs, right? RPGs don't compete with any of those, nor do they compete with MMOs. Those aren't 'lost' dollars, because people that choose MMOs over RPGs aren't going to help the hobby in the long-term anyways; it's not the experience they're looking for. And you still don't account for crossover players like myself, who find time for both. You're trying to create some Grand Unifed Economic Theory where it doesn't exist - you're being way too broad.

RPG publishers NEED to adapt to the new market and find new ways to handle their product because the old ways aren't working. I think WOTC is onto something with the miniatures game and tieing it into D&D and Star Wars. Further tieing the two products to minis could help to increase their sales even further in the next edition. I'd like to see the mini pricepoint change myself, even if it means less minis per box, it means I can buy boosters more often. I know this is a move that would alienate a large portion of the RPG audience but it would also appeal to people not into RPGs and bring them into the hobby and also appeals to magic players, wargamers etc. It brings back D&D's mass appeal that it lost in the years between 2e and 3e.

It's been proven by the D&D and Star Wars minis lines produced by WotC that the minis market doesn't bring in RPGers. Again, different experience, different audience.

 

[teitan]

Ok, whatever, you don't seem to be seeing my point. What is the most common arguement about RPG price increases? Entertainment value vs. DVDs, Comics, Movies, Video games etc and how you get more entertainment dollar from an RPG than you do from one of these examples. RPGs are a recreational activity, like movies etc. RPGs, from your arguement, only appeal to RPG players. What I am arguing is how to increase sales in an ever increasingly incestuous market. D&D and other RPGs need to attract those dollars away from the MMORPG market and other markets because the consumer only has so much money. On average a consumer is going to spend their money on WoW rather than D&D if you presented the option to them. That is a lost sale. That is recreation dollars lost to the market. Its SIMPLE economics. These products ARE comparable in spite of their different natures. Would you argue that the rise of video games hasn't led to the decrease in sales of action figures? It is demonstrable and this is a similar comparison. Sure, its apples and oranges but it isn't unfair or wrong to compare fruit even of different types.

Mini games can lead to RPGs much more easily than video games and D&D with the minis game is the PERFECT lead in product with its tactical elements familiar to wargamers, giving them something familiar to relate to. I didn't say that the model is working yet, but that they are on the right track and the cross promotional products are working. I am seeing more and more of the Warhammer players from my store picking up D&D core rules and wanting to learn how to play. I had to teach character creation about two weeks ago to 5 of them. Its going to work.

 

[Reynard]

It is demonstrable and this is a similar comparison.

"You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means."

/Indigo