Goodman rebuttal

[Jared Rascher]

While he was very respectful, and I don't refute what he had to say (and in fact, none of it really surprised me nor sounded "off"), I have to say that I wasn't particularly thrilled that he did seem to boost his own credentials by undercutting Necromancer and, it sounded to me, Paizo, by essentially saying that their business models don't allow them to understand the big picture.

While it makes sense, to a degree, to discuss the Necromancer stance, the reference to Paizo perplexes me. Paizo didn't have anything to do with Clark's post, and they have been pretty careful to not say anything about 4E sales or anything of that nature at all. In fact, most recently, Paizo has simply been saying that they like controlling their own destiny instead of trying to work within a licensing agreement as they have done in the past.

While it bothers me that posters on message boards (primarily WOTC's) try to divide Paizo into the "other" camp since they don't produce 4E products, I'm a bit disappointed that Joseph Goodman, someone that I actually have heard nothing but good things about, seems to have done the same thing, if only by association.

 

[BryonD]

3E was released after a lengthy dry spell, with people aching for something new and fresh. The OGL was brand new and the sky was the limit. 4E was launched when 3E was just beginning to slow down, so the anticipation was less. The 3pp market crashed, stabilized, and then began to tail off a bit before 4E was launched. The environment at launch was a big cause of 3E's initial success, and 4E's just doesn't match those circumstances.

As has been stated numerous times, 3E had done much more than begin to slow down. And it didn't tail off with the 4E announcement, it dove. 3E had a great run, but nearly a decade is a lot, and change just goes faster now then it did before.

(But, as a 3E fan, it is reassuring to have 4E fans justifying why 4E can't be compared to 3E)

I have to say he's talking about his world here, the 3pp world. Goodman Games worked hard to stay relevant, and others who haven't done so now face an uphill battle with distributors.

Correct. And it is an uphill battle because the market sucks so bad.

And if Goodman stops going with the flow of 4E (quick and easy modules as core product base) things will not go as well there either. Product fitting demand is more important than hand-waved concepts of who "worked hard to stay relevant".

I think your opinion implies a strong correlation between sustained selling power and 3pp support, or at the very least the customizability and flexibility of 3.5E.

Nope. Two separate points.

I happen to believe that 4E will have more than enough sustained selling power to live out its natural life of 8-10 years, and I don't think 3pp will or would have had that much of an impact either way.

I agree that 3pp will have minimal impact. However, I think you are dreaming to suspect that it will exceed 8-10 years. I'd be shocked if even WotC expects that.
Again, IMO, it won't last as long. I think the redundancy in the math working will start to show through for far to many players for great profits to persist for year on year.

I also think the more casual players it appeals to are more likely to move on to the next thing. If you are posting here, you are not casual. You will continue to play. But it takes the whole iceberg to be successful.

Maybe I'm wrong. Time will tell.

 

[Barcode]

It would be interesting to see how much MMORPGs suck up the gaming dollars during the recession this time around, that CCGs and pen and paper RPGs did during past recessions.

If was a kid or a teenager today, I certainly would be attracted to MMORPG games like WoW than older style CCG card games or pen and paper rpgs. Arguably if I was 20 years older than I am today, I probably would have been more into wargames than pen and paper rpgs.

QFT. If I found myself laid off for 20 months like I was in 2001-2002, spending my 12 hours of free time a day on WoW or LotR Online would be veeery tempting, whereas back then I threw myself into movies and a couple of 3e campaigns.

 

[Ulairi]

I really didn't like his post. Mr. Goodman starts out by laying out his credentials in a vague way, then he moves into his conclusions and it ends with "I am a businessmen, I know more, here is what I know". Without actually giving the information out that allowed him to derive his conclusions. I think that D&D 4E is doing well. It's not doing as well as 3E, but Wizards has a monthly stream of revenue with D&DI and has done a good thing by releasing a book a month, instead of trying to crowd the market. One thing people forget about 3E and the great boom to the industry that it became a glut on the market and helped the market shrink.

 

[Mark Plemmons]

Though I am sad to see the "game stores bring in more new players" nonsense. No amount of retail experience validates that opinion. He's welcome to hold it but I still maintain that it's simply not true.

I agree and disagree. How's that for clarity?

I disagree - speaking as someone who spent nearly a decade working with a comics and games store, and who got his first introduction to RPGs in that same store many years earlier. For the most part, my thoughts on the importance of game stores are similar to Joe Goodman's. (In fact, I said much the same things in a video interview at when Jolly and I guested at MidSouthCon this year - not sure if that ever got used anywhere.)

However... that store didn't bring me into the fold. I do agree from that point of view. It took gamers - not the store itself - to do that. But the game store provided us with a meeting place, a shared point of contact where the shelves were lined with intrigue and adventure - a place where I could browse, soak up the atmosphere, hang out at the gaming tables, get advice from the owner (and even friendly strangers).

And I wouldn't want to lose that.

 

[ggroy]

QFT. If I found myself laid off for 20 months like I was in 2001-2002, spending my 12 hours of free time a day on WoW or LotR Online would be veeery tempting, whereas back then I threw myself into movies and a couple of 3e campaigns.

When I was laid off awhile ago, I literally forced myself to not play any MMORPGs. I just knew that it would be very easy for me to fall into the pattern of playing all day or all night nonstop, instead of looking for another job.

I ended up finding a group of other laid off schmucks like myself who just happened to also be gamers, where we ended up playing 4E on the weekends and sometimes during the weekday evenings. (I generally try to avoid playing D&D during the day on weekdays).

 

[Goblinoid Games]

I agree and disagree. How's that for clarity?

Me too. When I was a kid I could walk into a game store and ask the guys behind the counter about any product they carried, and they could tell me about it. They knew their products and they wanted to sell them. The store changed hands later, and after that time when I walked in there or in any other game store in the last few cities across the country I've lived in the people there don't know a damn thing about at least half the products they carry. They seem to expect them to sell themselves if the books just sit out on a shelf. It seems to me that retailers should be working hard to know the games they stock and make an effort to sell them, and promote the sorts of community building activities that keep people coming back like having demos, game tournaments, etc.

Otherwise, why would anyone walk into a store these days when they can buy books online cheaper? The game store experience has to be worth something too.

 

[Noumenon]

acting spectacularly crappy toward Mr. Goodman (and, in another thread, toward Mr. Peterson)

I searched for a while and found the thread by Orcus that people were talking about but I'm getting lazy now. Could anyone link to this "Mr Peterson" guy if his comments are something I need to read?

 

[rounser]

People who benefit from 4E's success have less of a need to deny or believe anything.

Based on my recent experience in the minis thread, I couldn't disagree more. Your "side" is desperate for legitimacy and proof of success, and prepared to hem and haw in the face of evidence to the contrary that you don't like, just as any other will. It's called the human condition, and you can't pretend you're exempt from it, or that the problem only lies with the other team.

 

[joethelawyer]

Me too. When I was a kid I could walk into a game store and ask the guys behind the counter about any product they carried, and they could tell me about it. They knew their products and they wanted to sell them. The store changed hands later, and after that time when I walked in there or in any other game store in the last few cities across the country I've lived in the people there don't know a damn thing about at least half the products they carry. They seem to expect them to sell themselves if the books just sit out on a shelf. It seems to me that retailers should be working hard to know the games they stock and make an effort to sell them, and promote the sorts of community building activities that keep people coming back like having demos, game tournaments, etc.

Otherwise, why would anyone walk into a store these days when they can buy books online cheaper? The game store experience has to be worth something too.

It's pathetic. I called up what is the only gaming store in CT, as far as I can tell, today to ask them if they were doing anything for Free RPG Day. The girl o the phone had no idea what I was talking about, but did say there was a guy who was a DM that came in last night looking to start a game, but no one was there. I guess they do mostly MtG there.