Pathfinder 1E Pathfinder outsold D&D by 2:1 in 2013

[Henry]

What if the reason why wotc has taken so long to produce a new edition is to give time for PF to run its course? PF has been out for what, 5 years now? Don't the sale of books for an rpg really start to flag after that?

Or maybe wotc is just dumb and it takes them 3 years to write a game.

3.0 to 3.5 -- 3 years.
3.5 to 4.0 -- about 4 1/2 years.
4.0 to 5e -- about three years.

I wouldn't think of this as some grand plan by wotc to let pathfinder ebb. I think it really has taken them three years because they don't want to have a lackluster product to revitalize the rpg brand, and are seriously concerned with pleasing the most of the fan base they can muster. I know that i'm going to buy 5e later this year when it comes out, but i also know i'm spending at LEAST that much on the Iron Gods adventure path and supplements. I really hope WotC brings it like they seem to be -- i really don't think Paizo's concerned with WotC succeeding, I think they're more concerned with them FAILING, for a couple of reasons:

1) D&D is still the best known brand, and marginally still the largest vector for new players. Rising tide, all boats, yadda yadda.
2) It's still a small industry -- they got friends over there, and a flagged 5e may mean drastically bad things for D&D's people.

 

[SteveC]

Whenever I see threads like this, I wonder what's the point. As some have said, it's surprising that the difference isn't greater.

There hasn't been 4E product for going on two years now: I recall Murder at Gardmore Abbey being released in ... 2011, so maybe even longer... and that was the last release I actually ended up purchasing. It's been a long time. WotC hasn't gotten money from me because they haven't produced product I was looking for. For the most part, they haven't produced any product at all.

Pathfinder is basically competing with Wizard's backstock at the moment, which from what I have seen is tough to come by.

When Next comes out, I highly suspect that the situation will turn immediately, but will that prove anything either?

 

[Halivar]

My WotC money won't show up because, beyond the core books, all my money went to DDI. I suspect there are a fair number of 4E players that did likewise, and I suspect this was WotC's intention. So quite frankly, the ICv2 numbers are becoming are becoming increasingly irrelevant; hobby & game stores are not how people buy D&D anymore.

 

[billd91]

My WotC money won't show up because, beyond the core books, all my money went to DDI. I suspect there are a fair number of 4E players that did likewise, and I suspect this was WotC's intention. So quite frankly, the ICv2 numbers are becoming are becoming increasingly irrelevant; hobby & game stores are not how people buy D&D anymore.

A lot of people say this but without much evidence that the hobby/game specialty market isn't still worth monitoring and polling. These surveys provide snapshots of an influential segment of the market. Their information maybe shouldn't be over-emphasized, but neither should they be de-emphasized.

 

[Nikosandros]

their [Paizo] setting and peripheral content are at best mediocre, and they don't have much of substance to sell, but a fair number of people are buying what they're selling anyway.

Many would disagree with your assessment about the mediocrity of the setting and adventure material.

 

[Halivar]

A lot of people say this but without much evidence that the hobby/game specialty market isn't still worth monitoring and polling.

It's worth monitoring and polling. But this data is useless as an indicator or predictor.

 

[Ahnehnois]

Many would disagree with your assessment about the mediocrity of the setting and adventure material.

Sure. Those would be Paizo's apparently numerous subscribing customers. That's fine. We're never going to agree on that.

My point is that even if we accept that WotC has not put out any new content for a while, there has also been very little PF put out in that period, by the company's own intent. They're publishing rare an incremental addons to a well-established set of rules, and some other stuff. They're not adding a whole lot to the gaming hobby, just sort of treading water, but they're selling stuff anyway. It's an impressive piece of business on their part.

 

[billd91]

It's worth monitoring and polling. But this data is useless as an indicator or predictor.

If the data are truly useless, then it wouldn't be worth monitoring nor polling. But I think the point is it's not likely to be a good indicator of the behavior of the entire market since it only focuses on a slice of it. But it should, nevertheless, actually be a useful indicator of the behavior of that slice of the market.

 

[billd91]

Sure. Those would be Paizo's apparently numerous subscribing customers. That's fine. We're never going to agree on that.

My point is that even if we accept that WotC has not put out any new content for a while, there has also been very little PF put out in that period, by the company's own intent. They're publishing rare an incremental addons to a well-established set of rules, and some other stuff. They're not adding a whole lot to the gaming hobby, just sort of treading water, but they're selling stuff anyway. It's an impressive piece of business on their part.

I think we have very different ideas of what constitutes "very little PF put out in that period".

 

[Halivar]

If the data are truly useless, then it wouldn't be worth monitoring nor polling. But I think the point is it's not likely to be a good indicator of the behavior of the entire market since it only focuses on a slice of it. But it should, nevertheless, actually be a useful indicator of the behavior of that slice of the market.

It is useful in aggregation with the rest of the market that dwarfs it (digital, Amazon, and big brick) which can have vastly different buying patterns (thus worth monitoring). This, unfortunately, is information we don't have, and so no conclusions can be safely drawn.