Pathfinder 1E Pathfinder outsold D&D by 2:1 in 2013

[Nagol]

Curse you for pointing out a big hole in my spurious reasoning!


Counter nitpick: I don't think this maths correctly adjusts for different average per unit price.

I think it would then be (2.5X/70)/20 versus (X/11)/40, or 560:440, or D&D selling about 20% more of its twice-the-price products on average.

Nope the 70/11 factors go into making the average price (which we're not inputing as a formula) not into the amount sold.

Revenue = unit price * number sold. You provided revenue as X and 2.5X. I've provided unit price as $40 and $20 (based on a most scientific survey of weighted average price of product sold, of course). The number of product types that make up that average isn't meaningful.

Yes, but other than the fact that we're making all the numbers up as we go along, this analysis is clearly spot on.

 

[Minigiant]

I am both surprised and not.

I am surprised it was only 2:1.

And I am not surprised as Paizo isn't backed by a major corporation nor part of one. Corporates will rule for a loooong time.

 

[Wicht]

To repeat what some others have said upthread, that is not what the survey shows.

I wasn't talking about what the survey said. I was talking about market perception and how things have changed.

 

[Echohawk]

Revenue = unit price * number sold. You provided revenue as X and 2.5X. I've provided unit price as $40 and $20 (based on a most scientific survey of weighted average price of product sold, of course). The number of product types that make up that average isn't meaningful.

But I think that gives you a comparison of the total number of D&D products sold in 2013 versus the total number of Pathfinder products sold, rather than a comparison how many units each individual item sold on average. Even though far more Pathfinder items were sold in total during 2013, on an item-by-item basis, D&D products still appear to be outselling Pathfinder products (just!), even assuming they are twice the price.

So I think we're spuriously comparing different things.

As an aside, I just did some checking on what the average price per D&D product was for 2013 compared to Pathfinder. When doing that, I added in the novels and board/card games to both lines, since those are products a retailer would also likely stock. (I decided not to include miniatures, since both the D&D and Pathfinder miniatures are produced under licence.)

The results were:

• D&D: 18 products, average price $44.40.
• Pathfinder: 80 products, average price $18.48.

However, the D&D average price is really hurt by the inclusion of the OD&D reprint boxed set at $139.99. If we ignore that, the average drops to $38.78. So roughly $40 and $20, which is remarkably close to your orifice-pulled figures!

 

[Neonchameleon]

What if the reason why wotc has taken so long to produce a new edition is to give time for PF to run its course? PF has been out for what, 5 years now? Don't the sale of books for an rpg really start to flag after that?

Or maybe wotc is just dumb and it takes them 3 years to write a game.

If that's the reason - so there's less time between 5E and Pathfinder II, I consider it an even bigger mistake than most of the Next marketing plan.

Even were it the case, the choice to develop D&D Next and the choice not to produce extra 4E supplements such as the one containing the missing two seasons for Druids, a Birthright or Ravenloft setting (preferably both), or an Unearthed Arcana for 4E were not ones that needed to go together.

 

[EnglishLanguage]

I'm still honestly amazed WotC managed to convince Hasbro to let the D&D product line lay almost profitless for 2-3 years.

 

[Hussar]

I'm still honestly amazed WotC managed to convince Hasbro to let the D&D product line lay almost profitless for 2-3 years.

Well, again, that's hardly something we can actually state. 80 k DDi subscribers means that physical books are nowhere near as important as they once were.

Which is largely Mearl's point

 

[darjr]

Is it still at 80k? Are there numbers on the new community site? Have they been verified?

 

[darjr]

Oh, my two cents, only on the internet can good news, for both companies really, be said to be dire news.

 

[jodyjohnson]

Is it still at 80k? Are there numbers on the new community site? Have they been verified?

As a somewhat diligent keeper of the numbers, I strongly doubt the accuracy and correlation of the DDI Group size to the actual subscriber numbers.

As a former subscriber who still has access to the DDI group, I expect the number is dropping probably at an accelerating rate given the timing on yearly subs.

Since the forum changeover in Sept. 2013 the DDI group has only varied by +-3. That variance seems statistically unlikely if it were an accurate measure of the DDI subscriber number given the hiatus of Dragon and Dungeon, the development of the free public playtest, and the previous increase in size of roughly 30/day.

DDI subscribers still exist.
4e players still exist.
WotC has a more precise count of the numbers of subscribers.
They also have a count of the number of downloaders and survey responders for the playtest.
They know how many copies of Scourge of the Sword Coast, Ghosts of Dragonspear Castle, and all the other PDFs have sold.