A tricky question.
You see, pushing prone is nowhere near as... stable, as -5/+10.
With two opposed d20s, you've up to 19 points difference just from the roll. But you've also the difference in stats, and the difference in proficiency and expertise (which also varies).
IMO shoving should of never been an opposed check, but since it is and I failed maths despite being considered a prodigy because of statistics, all I can give you is an "eh."
Edit: To emphasis the wierdness of having it be an opposed check: If we assume a level 17+ character with 20 Strength and Expertise in Athletics is shoving a character with 10 Strength and no proficiency, there's a 3/200 chance of failure. It doesn't sound a lot, but this is a highest tier character, specialised into shoving, failing to shove a civilian. There's still a 3/400 chance of failure against a civilian defective in Strength (-1 modifier).