I am not accusing you of doing anything, though I feel you really do not appreciate how much the information the GM provides will impact the direction of play. In your explanation I see multiple points where the GM clearly either influences or has an easy opportunity to influence the outcome. But I do believe that you do not use this to consciously direct the game in any preplanner direction.
And things like reading the player reactions, taking account their character's motivations, carefully nudging the game in certain directions, inserting preplanned cool elements where they naturally fit, drawing players' attention to certain things are not dickish behaviour to me; these are things that a good GM should do! Now I understand that this is not within the spirit of the Blades, so that is another reason why I wouldn't be interested in that game.
I have never GMed Blades in the Dark. Nor have I read the rules. My knowledge of it is based on (i) others posting about it, and (ii) its resemblance in certain respects to Apocalypse World and Dungeon World.
That said, I am pretty confident that a GM of BitD is expected to have regard to the motivations that players establish for their PCs. I think
@Ovinomancer was doing that in the actual play report he posted (about the haunted house and the painting). But the GM is not expected to nudge the game in certain direction, and doesn't really have the resources to do so. I'm not sure about preplanned cool elements - there is a pre-established setting (Duskvol) and so I imagine that does at least suggest some cool elements. But I don't think they're meant to be secret from the players.
Most importantly, in the context of a discussion of participant agency in RPGing, I don't think the GM is entitled to declare that a declared action fails by reference to the GM's unilateral conception of the fictional situation. If the GM isn't going to say "yes" then I think the action has to get put to the test (which is what we see in
@Ovinomancer's game: the PC attunes to the painting to try to work out if/how it is enchanted).
The player is still forcing their desired outcome to the reality, it just is a gamble. But there really is no mystery. "Is this painting magical" is not really an interesting question any more. "It is because I decided to examine it, though it may eat my face." or even "It has certain chance of being magical because I decided to examine it" are ultimately both answers that the player just directly produced
What makes a good game is actually being able to study the situation and make either tactical or dramatic decisions based on that.
What makes the action meaningful is not whether the things are codified in the rules, it is the existence of objective base reality against which you can make decisions. Rules are one (and often good) way to communicate such reality, but not the only one.
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What makes it low-agency is the player not being able to gain meaningful information or make meaningful choices regarding that goal, at least according to your definition which discounts flavour. The player could have latched into any item, any time, anywhere, and interrogate it in the same manner than the painting to force the check. The rest is RNG.
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Right. So there actually is some independent reality you can learn about. You actually need to study it more to progress your quest. Meaningful choices can be made.
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There needs to be some reality against which to make decisions for the decisions to matter. Sure, getting to tell a bit of the story and randomising who gets to do it is a form of agency, and if you like that sort of agency good for you. But it is not really making meaningful choices, except perhaps flavour wise, and this is something you had low regard earlier.
What all this suggests to me is that (i) you are not very interested in character-driven or character-focused RPGing, and (ii) you much prefer what I call "RPGing as puzzle-solving" or "RPGing as learning what is in the GM's notes".
What establishes the meaningfulness of the choice made by the player in Ovinomancer's game is that
the PC, as played by the character, is prepared to take a risk to find a magical item that will improve his relationship with the university. We now learn something about this character, his drives, and what he thinks is worth taking a chance on. That is (broadly speaking) theme. The fact that it involves soul-sucking is probably closer to trope than theme, thought that's not a bright-line boundary and I'd of course be happy to hear what Ovinomancer thinks about that.
The idea that
choosing to stake your soul on finding something to improve your standing with the university is not meaningful and is mere flavour is - to me - a very strange one. I wasn't in Ovinomancer's game but to me that sounds like part of a cool situation leading to interesting stuff down the track. In my BW game where I'm a player, my PC Thurgon is prepared to stake his life to defend his honour, and to restore (what he sees as) the honour of his family and their estate. This is why encountering his brother Rufus as he did, and why his failure to rouse Rufus to action, mattered. It's not
mere flavour - that's the game!
The point of the random number generation in BitD (and AW, and BW, and - I would say - 4e D&D) is not to deliver theme. That's built-in and guaranteed by the rules for PC gen, for establishing the consequences of action declarations, and for framing scenes. The point of the dice is to manage pacing and related story dynamics. In a good story the protagonists get what they want some of the time, and they fail some of the time. Sometimes the chances they take pay off; sometimes those chances are overreach and redound upon them. In these RPGs, that is determined by the dice rolls. Part of the skill of designing these games is to make sure the maths works to produce reliable peaks and troughs of success and failure and complication. (We can also distinguish the games along those lines: 4e D&D produces more success than failure and so - especially when this combines with its tropes - tends towards the gonzo; whereas BW produces a pretty high rate of failure for a RPG and this is part of what makes it a demanding experience on the participants - players because their PCs are suffering and GMs because they're obliged to drive home those failures.)
There is nothing in my BW game, or in Ovinomancer's BitD game, that is remotely comparable to the GM having prepared a haunted house mystery where the job of the players is to manoeuvre their PCs, via "I walk towards the . . ." or "I closely inspect the . . ." action declarations, into fictional circumstances where the GM then tells them pre-authored fiction which the players gradually piece together to solve the mystery.
I did post upthread about a recent scenario I ran that was exactly as I've just described:
A few weeks ago I ran a session like this for my family - one of my daughters wanted to do a murder mystery for her birthday.
I adapted a murder scenario from an old Traveller module, and wrote up some characters (one for each other family member, plus a couple for their entourages, plus a small number of important NPCs whom I played). There was no action resolution in any mechanical sense - the players described what their PCs were doing, and who they were talking to, and I delivered up information as seemed appropriate (eg what they found if they searched a stateroom; what a NPC said if they spoke to him/her; etc).
This is an example of puzzle-solving: the players' goal is to acquire enough information to be able to infer to the hidden bit of my notes (ie whodunnit). It is a different experience from watching an episode of Death in Paradise or The Mentalist, as there is the first-person description element to it. But it doesn't really involve very much more agency.
(One difference from those shows is that they are scripted to try and occlude the audience's access to the relevant information, whereas in our murder mystery I was desperately trying to shovel information out the door. A better comparison might be to reading The Eleventh Hour.)
That was fun enough, but involved very little player agency in respect of the shared fiction. It was more interactive than solving a crossword puzzle or solving The Eleventh Hour, but at its core was not a radically different intellectual exercise.