hawkeyefan
Legend
I was picturing this more like a James Bond villain situation, where the mind flayer is just enjoying giving victims the chance to guess incorrectly (and you could slide the probability based on what you are shooting for here). So really this is just a roll, happening in the game itself, that will determine how the mind flayer acts towards the player (does it try to eat his brain or let him go)
No, it would play out as normal. So if the player guessed wrong, presumably the Mindflayer needs to make its attack. Where it might be an edge case is because the player is already strapped to the table, in some editions that might fall under a coup de grace rule (I can't recall off hand if it qualifies). But I think most likely the player would still have a chance, they would just be strapped to the table and need to figure out a way to attack (so if it is a spell caster he may have a sporting chance)
Ah my apologies I didn't realize you meant the mind flayer was literally holding a die in the game world...
I think in 5e the wording on that situation is pretty open to interpretation. Pretty sure that tied to a table makes you a helpless defender and so the outcome is not in doubt. It would have indeed been considered a coup de grace in some previous editions.