D&D 5E (2024) Is WOTC done publishing campaigns?

[GreyLord]

if your ratios are correct than the 19 million D&D Beyond accounts and 80 million fans isn't that weird.
of course, there's a lot more to define fandom than active players, something which you seem intent on denying

18 Million, or 19 million indicates less than 50 million to me. If we go with low numbers (people who played back in the 80s and 90s and are too old and senile to really get into all these digital signups...than I could possibly beleive numbers less than 40 million but greater than 35 million with that number. We are talking that most of your audience than is over 40 or 50 at a minimum (meaning that more fans come for older editions than are playing currently...which I think many would have issues with because of claims that the majority of fans these days are under the age of 25...but if we say that most are older than 45...possible).

If we contend that most of the players are younger though...18 to 19 million would indicate a fanbase of less than 15 million with a player base around half of that. So...yeah...I suppose it depends on who the fans are and who you want to target.

More likely, it would be a playerbase maxing around 10-15 million with a fanbase in the area of 25 to 40 million (though the fanbase probably would trend towards the lower number of 25 million to 30 million, it could be higher, especially if many of them come from an older generation still)...in my estimates.

 

[bedir than]

18 Million, or 19 million indicates less than 50 million to me. If we go with low numbers (people who played back in the 80s and 90s and are too old and senile to really get into all these digital signups...than I could possibly beleive numbers less than 40 million but greater than 35 million with that number. We are talking that most of your audience than is over 40 or 50 at a minimum (meaning that more fans come for older editions than are playing currently...which I think many would have issues with...but...possible).

If we contend that most of the players are younger though...18 to 19 million would indicate a fanbase of less than 15 million with a player base around half of that. So...yeah...I suppose it depends on who the fans are and who you want to target.

More likely, it would be a playerbase maxing around 10-15 million with a fanbase in the area of 25 to 40 million (though the fanbase probably would trend towards the lower number of 25 million to 30 million, it could be higher, especially if many of them come from an older generation still)...in my estimates.

So the ratio for OTHER fandoms is 1:5, but the ratio for D&D fandom is 1:2.5 because of reasons

 

[GreyLord]

So the ratio for OTHER fandoms is 1:5, but the ratio for D&D fandom is 1:2.5 because of reasons

Where do you get this 1:5 ratio?

The only 1:5 ratio I've seen is in relation to PHB's sold to possible player base.

Even under that the Player base is maxing out at 25 million for the most popular version of D&D (meaning no one has multiple PHB's...etc).

Edit: And to be clear, I think I was one of those who brought up this ratio years ago in justification regarding the possible 40 million fans...with 15 million of those (at least) being from the older days, and 25 million fans from the new edition as a possible way to justify the claims of 40 million fans. That's also based on sales of Red boxes and PHB's previously with allowances of overlaps from different versions and editions for those 15 million. If we go with a higher number of 25 million fans of older editions with 25M new fans...that's a possible 50 million...but as I related above, that means half (if not more) of your fans are going to be 40+ most likely. Even 3e came out 25 years ago...does that make any of you feel old?

 

[mamba]

Remember that little thing I asked about Nintendo. Do you really think there are more fans of D&D currently than the entire population of the UK?

how do you define fan? I see no reason to believe they were talking about a 50 years aggregate with that. Hard enough to come up with a number of current fans, I don’t think you have any chance at a realistic total over the last 50 years

 

[GreyLord]

how do you define fan? I see no reason to believe they were talking about a 50 years aggregate with that. Hard enough to come up with a number of current fans, I don’t think you have any chance at a realistic total over the last 50 years

I'll use AI for this one...

A fan is defined as
an ardent admirer, enthusiast, or devoted follower of a particular person, team, genre, activity, or product. The term is a shortened form of "fanatic," originating in the late 19th century to describe enthusiastic spectators of sports, particularly baseball.

Wikipedia link
Fan (Person)

A fan or fanatic, sometimes also termed an aficionado or enthusiast, is a person who exhibits strong interest or admiration for something or somebody, such as a celebrity, a sport, a sports team, a genre, a politician, a book, a television show, a movie, a video game or an entertainer. Collectively, the fans of a particular object or person constitute its fanbase or fandom. They may show their enthusiasm in a variety of ways, such as by promoting the object of their interest, being members of a related fan club, holding or participating in fan conventions or writing fan mail. They may also engage in creative activities ("fan labor") such as creating fanzines, writing fan fiction, making memes, drawing fan art, or developing fan games. Some excessively avid fans are called "stans" (a portmanteau of stalker and fan).

For money making purposes, a fanbase can be an important number to guesstimate in order to get a feel on how much money you can make off of something.

This is also essential when looking at companies on the stock exchange and for investments in regards to what they are working on and working with in relation to how well they may pull something off financially.

Which is something I was heavily involved with at one point (before retirement).

 

[mamba]

So, by that logic, D&D Beyond should have at LEAST over 100 million Beyond accounts...right?

no? Using DDB is akin to being a fan of a team, not the sport as a whole. So the number should obviously be lower than the number of fans, and even lower than the number of players over D&D’s lifetime.

20M squarely fits that bill.

 

[mamba]

18 Million, or 19 million indicates less than 50 million to me. If we go with low numbers (people who played back in the 80s and 90s and are too old and senile to really get into all these digital signups...

I played in the 80s, I have a DDB account. The people who played in the 80s are in their 50s now, not in their 80s…

Chances are most stopped playing before DDB came around. I see no reason why the percentage of players with a DDB account would be significantly lower for people in their 40s than in their 20s though

 

[GreyLord]

no? Using DDB is akin to being a fan of a team, not the sport as a whole. So the number should obviously be lower than the number of fans, and even lower than the number of players over D&D’s lifetime.

20M squarely fits that bill.

I'm not certain I follow your logic...at all...but...okay?

 

[GreyLord]

I played in the 80s, I have a DDB account. The people who played in the 80s are in their 50s now, not in their 80s…

Chances are most stopped playing before DDB came around. I see no reason why the percentage of players with a DDB account would be significantly lower for people in their 40s than in their 20s though

Those who played 3e started anywhere from 10 on up. An average age of 15 at the time put's them at 40 today. The average college age (20) would put most at 45. Edit: and obviously, those who played TSR editions will be older than that.

Many of those of this generation are not as avid in creating digital accounts (except for maybe facebook) on new platforms as younger generations...at least from how I have understood it from those who explained these things to me. So, you will find that those who are on things such as TikTok, reddit, Instagram and other social media in that line trend towards younger ages rather than older.

 

[mamba]

The only 1:5 ratio I've seen is in relation to PHB's sold to possible player base.

Even under that the Player base is maxing out at 25 million for the most popular version of D&D

there are more than 5M sold PHBs, and that ignores digital copies, which probably almost double the total by now. For someone always asking for data, you sure are careless with the one you use