D&D 5E (2014) Best way to balance an encounter against a level 10 5 player party?

If you are willing to fudge things a bit (which is not for everyone I respect). You can setup "phatom follow-ups".

If the encounter you setup is just a breeze, send in a secondary group mid fight to take it up a notch. If the fight is a nail-biter, than those secondary just never show up.

What makes it great is that it lets you tailor your encounter in the actual after you see how its going, rather than relying on theoreticals. But it does require a little DM duplicity so depends on your comfort with that.
 

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If you are willing to fudge things a bit (which is not for everyone I respect). You can setup "phatom follow-ups".
I'll do this myself and have 5 more grell show up in a couple rounds if I think the fight needs it.

I also agree that terrain helps combats a lot. A 20ft chasm with a narrow rope bridge. There is risk of falling or hiding more grell in the depths. People can teleport around and surprise people thinking they were safe. Boulders can provide AC boost or allow to hide.
 

They will destroy that encounter.

Xp Budget is 11500 for a medium encounter.

A mage is CR 6. 9th level caster. 2300xp. 5th level mage CR 2 or 3 depending on spells.
Mind flayers 2900xp.


Grell is irrelevant.
Warrior commander is CR 10 5900 probably to much. 11100xp. Try a pair of gladiators (cr5) elite guards 3600. 8800xp

Rooms really small. Add more bodies.2700 xp is 6 CR 2. Cult fanatics for more spellcasters and some CR 2 beats sticks.
 

Waiting to hear back from OP 😆
One of the better suggestions to spice things up was terrain. To make it easy on the GM, some patches of dangerous terrain (literally, not just slowing speed) that the baddies are immune to.
 

Your original encounter design should be fine, provided that you also include 2-3 other encounters of similar difficulty in the same adventuring day.

17,400XP* will give you a Deadly encounter for your party size - which means the party will probably win unless they play stupid or get super unlucky - but they'll have to spend a lot of resources to do so. If you don't make that resource drain matter, it will be trivial in the grand scheme of the adventure.

*In my opinion, you should follow the following guideline for 5 player parties as well as for 6 player parties: "If the party contains six or more characters, use the next lowest multiplier on the table. Use a multiplier of 0.5 for a single monster". Even one extra PC gives them a huge boost over a 4 player party that isn't accommodated by the multiplier table
 

Ugh? Featureless room? Throw in some elements the players can use or have it used against them. Grells hiding in fog in the air above. A pool of mildly acidic/entangling goo that heals the Mind Flayer. A concealed door the spellcaster can duck through and leave a harmful area of effect behind.

Put the players off-balance as I don't think the monsters themselves will be much of a challenge otherwise.
Mind Flayer just makes the floor explode under the PCs with HIS AWESOME MIND POWERS

In fact, this is the idea I have for this fight: Set up a lit of Lair Actions that go off at each round of combat at initiative 20. Floor explodes, chandelier falls of the celling, nets are lanuched at PCs, part of the room is covered in acid, another part catches fire. Make sure the situation changes every round worse for the PCs.
 


Here is the updated encounter(s):

[Outside the Tower]
2 Goblins man a ballista cannon that deals 3d12 + 9 piercing damage on a hit on top
of a tower
Hit Points: 40
Range: 100/300 feet
Each Goblin has 7 HP and 15 Armor Class with 1d6 short bows that reach 80/320 feet

[Inside Tower]
3 Bugbears guarding the room to the Mind Flayer
Bug Bear stats:
Hit Points:27
AC: 16
Brute. A melee weapon deals one extra die of its damage when the bugbear hits with it
(included in the attack).
Surprise Attack. If the bugbear surprises a creature and hits it with an attack during
the first round of combat, the target takes an extra 7 (2d6) damage from the attack.
Morningstar. Melee Weapon Attack: +4 to hit, reach 5 ft., one target. Hit: (2d8 + 2) piercing damage.
Javelin. Melee Weapon Attack: +4 to hit, reach 5 ft., one target. Hit: (2d6 + 2) piercing damage.
Javelin. Ranged Weapon Attack: +4 to hit, reach 30/120 ft., one target. Hit: (1d6 + 2) piercing damage.

[Mind Flayer Room]
Champion stands in the middle of the room and protects the Mind Flayer and Archmage.
HP: 143
AC: 18
Greatsword: 2d6 + 5 slashing damage
Longbow: 1d8 + 3 piercing damage range of 150/600 feet
Has Advantage on Saving Throws

Mind Flayer summons x1 Grells per turn on a chance of 4 and above on a 1d6
Stands behind the 4 goblins that are protecting him and has a pool of acid
that heals him for 2d4 per turn he stands in the acid puddle. Hurts the players
for 2d4.
Mind Flayer Stats
HP: 44
AC:13
Saving Throws: INT +5, WIS +5
Skills: Perception +5, Stealth +5
Mind Blast (Recharge 5–6): A 60-foot cone. Creatures must succeed on a
DC 15 Intelligence saving throw or take 13 psychic damage and be stunned for 1 minute
(can repeat save at end of each turn)
Tentacles: Melee attack +7 to hit, reach 5 ft., deals 15 (2d10 + 4) psychic damage.
On hit, grapples Medium or smaller targets (escape DC 15), which must succeed on a DC
15 INT save or be stunned until grapple ends.
Advantage on saving throws against magic spells and magic effects

Archmage stands on the right side of the Mind Flayer Room and immediately casts Cone of Cold
once the Paladin and Barbarian get within range. Stands behind a makeshift wall for cover.
which deals 8d8 damage on a failed Constiutition Saving Throws versus Spell Save 17 and +9
to hit with magic ranged spells.
Archmage stats
HP: 99
AC: 13
Saving Throws Int +9, Wis +6
Skills Arcana +13, History +13
Advantage on saving throws against magic spells and magic effects
Spells:
Cantrip: Fire Bolt and Shocking Grasp
1st Level: 4 Slots - Detect Magic, Mage Armor, Magic Missile
2nd Level: 3 Slots - Misty Step
3rd Level: 2 Slots - Counterspell
4th Level: 2 Slots - Fireshield
5th Level: 2 Slots - Cone of Cold

Grells appear next to the Mind Flayer when he summons them with these stats.
When summoned the Grells travel along the ceiling of the room to attack the
Druid and Bard which are concealed in fog.
HP: 55
AC: 12
Skills Perception +4, Stealth +6, Passive Perception 14
Multiattack. The grell makes two attacks: one with its tentacles and one with its beak.

Tentacles. Melee Weapon Attack: +4 to hit, reach 10 ft., one creature. Hit: 7 (1d10 + 2)
piercing damage, and the target must succeed on a DC 11 Constitution saving throw or be
poisoned for 1 minute. The poisoned target is paralyzed, and it can repeat the saving throw
at the end of each of its turns, ending the effect on a success. The target is also grappled
(escape DC 15). If the target is Medium or smaller, it is also restrained until this grapple ends.
While grappling the target, the grell has advantage on attack rolls against it and can't use this
attack against other targets. When the grell moves, any Medium or smaller target it is grappling
moves with it.

Beak. Melee Weapon Attack: +4 to hit, reach 5 ft., one target. Hit: 7 (2d4 + 2) piercing damage.

Fire Elemental and Shied guardian
 
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You threw a slight curveball - in the original post you stated "5th level spellcaster", but your Archmage is actually at least a 9th level spellcaster who can toss 5th level spells...

Overall, I think you have the numbers for a good fight, from here on out tactics could possibly throw the fight one way or another.

Personally, I would have had the Archmage cast arcane lock on the door to the inner chamber. Party might fight and defeat the bugbears, but they will have to backtrack and climb the tower to get in from the roof (facing goblin bombards and/or hot (slippery) oil being dumped on them during their climb) if they can't get around the lock.

If this is still the 40' circular room, I'm dubious the makeshift barrier for the archmage will do much good. Might be best to have it at least provide waist-high cover on 3 sides (perhaps full height facing the door with a peephole to cast through) to make it harder to reach and have two or three in the room the archmage can misty step between.

Probably also a good idea to give the Champion a sentinel-like ability to stop the barbarian and paladin from rushing those he's defending or the melee guys are just going to storm past him to get the "squishies". If the Champion has a shield, consider giving him a "deflect" ability like a monk to intercept arrows or other ranged attacks directed past him at the mage or archmage.

As soon as the Mind Flayer can (possibly even before the fight starts), it should probably start levitating to try and keep out of melee range, only dropping back down to finish off a PC or try and briefly recover in the pool (if the Mind Flayer is only occasionally coming down to heal, may want to increase the healing to offset the pounding it will likely take when grounded).

Keep in mind that Mind Flayers are usually quite evil and uncaring about non-Flayers. If the paladin and barbarian get stuck on the champion and they have the champion down to a handful of hit points, there's a good chance the Mind Flayer won't mind using his psionic blast on his foes even if his worn-down meat shield is caught in the blast (same goes for the Archmage).

On the rounds that the Mind Flayer isn't summoning a Grell, it would benefit it to levitate up into the fog for cover and either blast down or remain elusive until it can conjure a grell to precede his reappearance (Mind Flayer into fog, moments later a Grell rushing down to attack ought to make the characters at least blink the first time it happens). Forcing the Mind Flayer to the ground (and keeping it there) should feel like a major accomplishment in the fight.

Likewise, the Mind Flayer isn't going to care much for the Grells either, and once they are down to a handful of hit points they're just fodder that can be replaced if the need to hurt multiple PCs is required. This can also be used to show how ruthless the Mind Flayer is, if you want to go that route*.

I'm also curious if there's a backstory to why these villians are here. Is there a chance the party might want to parley? Where do these guys rest/sleep/eat? (If you haven't already, I'd have a basement either in the outer area where the bugbears are and/or in the inner room that leads to a lab & barracks - good place to stock the villian's treasure, maybe another way to bypass the arcane lock if its secret entrance can be found)?

* If things go sideways for the players, might even allow for an option to have the PCs turn the Champion or Archmage on the Mind Flayer for fear it may see them as "in the way" or mere cannon fodder in the area of effect of its attacks.
 

You threw a slight curveball - in the original post you stated "5th level spellcaster", but your Archmage is actually at least a 9th level spellcaster
Yeah, I forgot to update the Archmage in the encounter statement.
Also the shield guardian protects the Archmage from attacks.
I'm also curious if there's a backstory to why these villians are here. Is there a chance the party might want to parley? Where do these guys rest/sleep/eat? (If you haven't already, I'd have a basement either in the outer area where the bugbears are and/or in the inner room that leads to a lab & barracks - good place to stock the villian's treasure, maybe another way to bypass the arcane lock if its secret entrance can be found)?
There is a basement and that is where a Maw of Yeenoghu there because it used to be a civilian that got experimented on. The group of enemies are chosen because they capture civilians and other npcs to turn them into weapons for the stories main villain.
* If things go sideways for the players, might even allow for an option to have the PCs turn the Champion or Archmage on the Mind Flayer for fear it may see them as "in the way" or mere cannon fodder in the area of effect of its attacks.
I will keep this in mind should the battle go bad for the players.

Thanks for your help.
 

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