The value of manned space flight?

What things? Worse for whom? Compared to when?
The planet.

1) Ocean Acidifaction
2) Soil Erosion
3) Microplastic Infiltration
4) Mass Extinction
5) Climate Change
6) Desertification

Take your pic. We have made humanity better by sucking the lifeblood of the world. Maybe we can fix it, but we haven't done a very good job so far.
 

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I do think we have to make several big leaps in technology to make a viable colony a reality.

I'll note just one.....we do food incorrectly.

We stuff biomatter into soil, add photons, water, and nitrogen....wait for the biomatter to grow (consuming a lot of energy), and then we pull it from the its water + nitrogen bath and eat it. We have been doing that for 5000 years. Sure we have gotten way better at it, but its still at its core a 5000 year old technology.


If your going to space with hostile soil and hostile conditions, you have to do far better. What we need to learn to do is generate glucose from water, electricity, and carbon dioxide. Basically become our own plants. Do it at scale. Food production should be a factory process....farming should go the way of the dinosaur. We have started this idea with Protein right now, aka the "impossible burgers", but there are still several steps to go to get it to the final destination.

That's the kind of tranformative technologies that make space colonization go from "yeah right" to "tell me more".


Its also highly likely we will have to invest in Geoengineering technologies, as we do not have the human will to stop climate change the "correct way". Very sad, but assuming we don't kill out planet with it, we will learn a lot about what terraforming might look like in the process.
"There's food in them thar comets!"
 

I don't think that this is actually decided yet, and it will definitely be dependent on how soon we respond. There are definitely amounts of CO2 we can blast into the atmsophere that will lead to results we can't stop anymore and survive long term. Will we let it that bad? We hope not.

Heck, even if we ignore CO2 and we kept growing in our energy consumption, we could theoretically end up boiling the oceans in few centuries due to all the waste heat (fusion isn't going to help here, even wind and solar would not).
Practically, it likely can't get that bad - but only because the environment would already be too hostile for us before that. And we'd likely will stop that growth even sooner than that simply because we're not that dumb - however, we might also still be too late, because the changes of the environment are dynamic. The system responds, and it can take decades or centuries until the new "equilibrium" is reached, and that equilibrium doesn't have to be one that supports human life - or it might, but unfortunately, the stages before already killed them off.

I sometimes worry that by not wanting to sound too alarmist, climate science might actually self-censor itself. Most of our climate action plans are based on the more optimistic or cautious predictions. There is a fear that by going by worst-case scenarios, people will reject the science, especially if some don't happen: But some of the worst-case-scenarios are also so far away that by the time we realize the worst-case scenariosare true, we might be past the point to do something about it. It's not an easy balance to achieve.

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Space Exploration is a lot of fundamental research paired with great engineering challenges. What we can gain from that is always hard to predict. Space - and other planetary bodies - are also unique environments that allow experiments we simply can't pull off on Earth. Low Gravity, No Gravity, vacuum, solar or cosmic radiation. So it will in my opinion always be useful to have both robotic experiments and human experiments in space.

We probably should not count on space travel, exploration or colonization really giving us a home from home - Mars will probably never be a safe haven to escape to from a dying Earth. Mars might be the test-bed of technology that we'll use on Earth, be it to deal with the consequences of climate change or other environmental changes, or make parts of Earth habitable or useable to us in ways they weren't before. Or something completely different we never could forsee, for a problem or technology we didn't think of when we started the mission.

You can always squabble about cost (including opportunity cost), should we spend money on X or on Y. But the thing with fundamental research is that its economical (and also health and social) impacts are hard to quantify before the discoveries are made and put to use. And when it comes to opportunity cost, one also has to check if there actually is still an "opportunity" to spend your money better. I would say if you already own all the shares for Investment X, you can't do much to get more, so you might need to take Investment Y instead, which might have a lower ROI, but unless it's negative ROI, still better than just sitting on your money.
I will put in these two articles that changed my entire perspective on climate change and the environment. It was the most eye opening experience I have had in quite a long time.


The articles are not terrible long, with only a bit of math. But it quickly shows the scale of the problem, and how "inevitable" it seems.

There are many more blog posts on that site to dig even even deeper, but these are the articles that really set the stage.
 

I will put in these two articles that changed my entire perspective on climate change and the environment. It was the most eye opening experience I have had in quite a long time.


The articles are not terrible long, with only a bit of math. But it quickly shows the scale of the problem, and how "inevitable" it seems.

There are many more blog posts on that site to dig even even deeper, but these are the articles that really set the stage.
I will summarize very very simply.

Progress is the problem.


We as a civilization have gotten addicted to progress. Using technology to make our lives better. But taht has come with an inordinate cost to our environment. And there is no real guarrantee we can "fix it". Themodynamics is a real nasty lady, the more we try to order our environemnt the more we destroy the order of the environment around ours.

History has shown that technology efficiencies lead to short term savings of resources, but long term it accelerates our extraction and depletion of resources.

We don't have a proven model that says technology can actually fix the earth. But we are gambling everything we got on it, because there is no way we are giving up our progress.

We also have no societal structure for a no growth society, which would be essential for any such model to work. Exponential Growth and Collapse is the only way we know how to do it....or we go back to the very low tech early civlization models which didn't have a lot of growth (completely undoing all of the progress we made up till now). Most no growth scenarios work against the fundamental "greed drive" that our lizard brains promote, so there is no guarrantee any of them are sustainable.
 



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