Menu
News
All News
Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
Pathfinder
Starfinder
Warhammer
2d20 System
Year Zero Engine
Industry News
Reviews
Dragon Reflections
White Dwarf Reflections
Columns
Weekly Digests
Weekly News Digest
Freebies, Sales & Bundles
RPG Print News
RPG Crowdfunding News
Game Content
ENterplanetary DimENsions
Mythological Figures
Opinion
Worlds of Design
Peregrine's Nest
RPG Evolution
Other Columns
From the Freelancing Frontline
Monster ENcyclopedia
WotC/TSR Alumni Look Back
4 Hours w/RSD (Ryan Dancey)
The Road to 3E (Jonathan Tweet)
Greenwood's Realms (Ed Greenwood)
Drawmij's TSR (Jim Ward)
Community
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Resources
Wiki
Pages
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Downloads
Latest reviews
Search resources
EN Publishing
Store
EN5ider
Adventures in ZEITGEIST
Awfully Cheerful Engine
What's OLD is NEW
Judge Dredd & The Worlds Of 2000AD
War of the Burning Sky
Level Up: Advanced 5E
Events & Releases
Upcoming Events
Private Events
Featured Events
Socials!
EN Publishing
Twitter
BlueSky
Facebook
Instagram
EN World
BlueSky
YouTube
Facebook
Twitter
Twitch
Podcast
Features
Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
Ryan Dancey: Acquiring TSR
Q&A With Gary Gygax
D&D Rules FAQs
TSR, WotC, & Paizo: A Comparative History
D&D Pronunciation Guide
Million Dollar TTRPG Kickstarters
Tabletop RPG Podcast Hall of Fame
Eric Noah's Unofficial D&D 3rd Edition News
D&D in the Mainstream
D&D & RPG History
About Morrus
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Forums & Topics
Forum List
Latest Posts
Forum list
*Dungeons & Dragons
Level Up: Advanced 5th Edition
D&D Older Editions, OSR, & D&D Variants
*TTRPGs General
*Pathfinder & Starfinder
EN Publishing
*Geek Talk & Media
Search forums
Chat/Discord
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Upgrade your account to a Community Supporter account and remove most of the site ads.
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*TTRPGs General
"1 Hp remaining.... again"
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Asmor" data-source="post: 5135157" data-attributes="member: 1154"><p>I think there are 2 factors at work here.</p><p></p><p>First, a monster being left at 1 hp is quite memorable, so selective memory probably skews things a bit.</p><p></p><p>Second, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a statistical basis for this being common, and it only becomes more common if you increase the 'threshold' (e.g. if you count not just being left at 1 hp, but at 2 or even 3).</p><p></p><p>Consider this. Let's say I'm using an at-will that does 1d10+6 damage, and I'm fighting something with anywhere from 9 to 16 HP left. In other words, depending on what I roll I might drop the monster or I might leave it at 1 or 2 hp.</p><p></p><p>In fact, regardless of what the monster's hp is, as long as it's in that range I have a 10% chance of leaving it with 1 hp and and a 20% chance of leaving it with 1 or 2 hp.</p><p></p><p>From every 5 such monsters, I have a roughly 2/3 chance of leaving at least one of them with 1 or 2 hp left (1-[.2]^5)=~.67.</p><p></p><p>Of course, this is a very simple example. Once you start getting into larger pools of dice, the odds skew and become more difficult to calculate. The range of hp values where you're capable of leaving the monster at 1 or 2 hp also increases, though.</p><p></p><p>Just did the math for 2d10. Assuming I did it correctly, and assuming it's equally likely that a monster's HP is anywhere in the range where it can leave 1 or 2 hp left (e.g. 3-22 for 2d10+0), there's an 11% chance of leaving the monster at 1.</p><p></p><p>Now the real x-factor here is how likely a given monster is to be in an attack's "minionizing range" at some point before it's killed. This probability probably goes up as attacks do more dice of damage and thus get a larger range, but consequently the actual probability of the attack minionizing the monster goes down...</p><p></p><p>But one thing I didn't account for is that an attack that does very little damage against a monster at the high end of the minionizing range will leave the monster in the minionizing range. If my curiosity gets the better of me I might program something to calculate that later. This is what really matters, since the question here isn't the likelihood of a given attack minionizing a monster, but of a given monster ever being minionized by ANY attack.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Asmor, post: 5135157, member: 1154"] I think there are 2 factors at work here. First, a monster being left at 1 hp is quite memorable, so selective memory probably skews things a bit. Second, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a statistical basis for this being common, and it only becomes more common if you increase the 'threshold' (e.g. if you count not just being left at 1 hp, but at 2 or even 3). Consider this. Let's say I'm using an at-will that does 1d10+6 damage, and I'm fighting something with anywhere from 9 to 16 HP left. In other words, depending on what I roll I might drop the monster or I might leave it at 1 or 2 hp. In fact, regardless of what the monster's hp is, as long as it's in that range I have a 10% chance of leaving it with 1 hp and and a 20% chance of leaving it with 1 or 2 hp. From every 5 such monsters, I have a roughly 2/3 chance of leaving at least one of them with 1 or 2 hp left (1-[.2]^5)=~.67. Of course, this is a very simple example. Once you start getting into larger pools of dice, the odds skew and become more difficult to calculate. The range of hp values where you're capable of leaving the monster at 1 or 2 hp also increases, though. Just did the math for 2d10. Assuming I did it correctly, and assuming it's equally likely that a monster's HP is anywhere in the range where it can leave 1 or 2 hp left (e.g. 3-22 for 2d10+0), there's an 11% chance of leaving the monster at 1. Now the real x-factor here is how likely a given monster is to be in an attack's "minionizing range" at some point before it's killed. This probability probably goes up as attacks do more dice of damage and thus get a larger range, but consequently the actual probability of the attack minionizing the monster goes down... But one thing I didn't account for is that an attack that does very little damage against a monster at the high end of the minionizing range will leave the monster in the minionizing range. If my curiosity gets the better of me I might program something to calculate that later. This is what really matters, since the question here isn't the likelihood of a given attack minionizing a monster, but of a given monster ever being minionized by ANY attack. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Community
General Tabletop Discussion
*TTRPGs General
"1 Hp remaining.... again"
Top