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<blockquote data-quote="Blue" data-source="post: 7582791" data-attributes="member: 20564"><p>Mathematically, you have introduced a much greater variance. You are heading in the opposite direction of your stated goal.</p><p></p><p>This is because the variance isn't about the number, it's about the boolean pass/fail nature of it. It doesn't matter if you succeed by 1 or succeed by 8. Only if you pass or fail. Therefore, the <u>only</u> variance you are actually looking at is the one right under the needed roll.</p><p></p><p>With your projected DCs, you're aiming at the top of the bell curve often. At that point, a +1 difference will have a lot more affect than with a d20. If you go from needing on the dice a 10 or more to an 11 or more, that's an 11% change in your chance to succeed vs. only a 5% change with d20. You go from having a 64% chance to success to a 55%. Moving from an 11+ to a 12+ is another 10% change.</p><p></p><p>As a matter of math, the only place that 2d10 produces less variance than a d20 is if you need the dice to give you the extremes - you succeed of a 5+ (or even lower), or a 18+ (or even higher) on the dice.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH]105548[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>A bell curve increases the variance at the target numbers you are aiming at, so means there is greater uncertainty then if you were just rolling a d20. It doesn't <em>feel</em> like it because the numbers are grouped closer, but since how much you make or fail the roll by doesn't matter that's a false perception.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Blue, post: 7582791, member: 20564"] Mathematically, you have introduced a much greater variance. You are heading in the opposite direction of your stated goal. This is because the variance isn't about the number, it's about the boolean pass/fail nature of it. It doesn't matter if you succeed by 1 or succeed by 8. Only if you pass or fail. Therefore, the [U]only[/U] variance you are actually looking at is the one right under the needed roll. With your projected DCs, you're aiming at the top of the bell curve often. At that point, a +1 difference will have a lot more affect than with a d20. If you go from needing on the dice a 10 or more to an 11 or more, that's an 11% change in your chance to succeed vs. only a 5% change with d20. You go from having a 64% chance to success to a 55%. Moving from an 11+ to a 12+ is another 10% change. As a matter of math, the only place that 2d10 produces less variance than a d20 is if you need the dice to give you the extremes - you succeed of a 5+ (or even lower), or a 18+ (or even higher) on the dice. [ATTACH=CONFIG]105548._xfImport[/ATTACH] A bell curve increases the variance at the target numbers you are aiming at, so means there is greater uncertainty then if you were just rolling a d20. It doesn't [I]feel[/I] like it because the numbers are grouped closer, but since how much you make or fail the roll by doesn't matter that's a false perception. [/QUOTE]
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