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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Mike Sullivan" data-source="post: 1006164" data-attributes="member: 9824">No, it won't.As you've been told several times, the reason you can ignore chance to hit in this analysis is that it doesn't change from person to person.However, I'll just demonstrate it.Okay, so we're going to compare two peoplePerson A has a longsword +2 that's not keen, and improved critical.  He's a level 8 fighter with a 16 Str, weapon focus and specialization in longsword, and no other bonuses.Person B has a rapier +2 that's not keen, and improved crit.  He's a lavel 8 fighter with a 16 Str, weapon focus and specialization in rapier, and no other bonuses.Each person has a +14/+9 modified attack bonus.  The longsword guy does 1d8 + 7 damage with a 17-20/x2 crit, and the rapier guy does 1d6 + 7 damage with a 15-20/x2 crit.  They're attacking a target with AC 20.First, the analysis that doesn't bother with chance to hit:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"> Longsword guy does 1d8 + 7 damage before crits.  That averages to 4.5 + 7 = 11.5.  His crit is 17-20/x2, which translates to a 1.2 multiplier.  Thus, his expected damage per hit is 13.8 Rapier guy does 1d6 + 7 damage before crits.  That averages to 3.5 + 7 = 10.5.  His crit is 15-20/x2, which translates to a 1.3 multiplier.  Thus, his expected damage per hit is 13.65. Thus, longsword guy does 101.0989% the damage of rapier guy.  (13.8 / 13.65)</li> </ul>Second, the analysis that does bother with chance to hit:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"> Longsword guy hits on a 6+ with his primary attack and 11+ with his secondary attack.  That translates to a 75% chance to hit with his first attack and a 50% chance to hit with his second attack.  As we can see above, his expected damage per hit is 13.8, so his expected damage per round is .75(13.8) + .5(13.8) = 17.25. Rapier guy hits on a 6+ with his primary attack and 11+ with his secondary attack.  That translates to a 75% chance to hit with his first attack and a 50% chance to hit with his second attack.  As we can see above, his expected damage per hit is 13.65, so his expected damage per round is .75(13.65) + .5(13.65) = 17.0625. So now we divide 17.25 by 17.0625, and we see that longsword guy does...  101.0989% the damage of the rapier guy.</li> </ul>Tah-dah.</blockquote>

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