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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Jester David" data-source="post: 7187751" data-attributes="member: 37579">Not really. We can make an educated guess at sales numbers on Amazon via sites like this: <a href="https://www.tckpublishing.com/amazon-book-sales-calculator/" target="_blank">https://www.tckpublishing.com/amazon-book-sales-calculator/</a>And, again, we have the reported sales numbers from Dancey and Mona, which you reference again later on. Some guessing is happening, but it's educated guesses and not just random numbers being pulled out of the aether.Again, not really. "5e lifetime PHB sales > 3, 3.5, 4 lifetime" <a href="https://twitter.com/mikemearls/status/764241988128419840" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/mikemearls/status/764241988128419840</a>There's two ways to take that. Either 5e outsold them all (unlikely) or 5e outsold each individually (likely).Then he would have used "profits". But he used "sales". And then clarified "book sales", so things like downloads of the Basic Rules were not included.<a href="https://twitter.com/mikemearls/status/765076775357390848" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/mikemearls/status/765076775357390848</a>Once again, not really. He mentions both "3" and "3.5".While you're right that by this point in time, 3.0 was "dead" (and the 3.5e books released), I'm not sure what you mean about 3.0 being "front loaded". Books came out slowly over the two years between launch and 3.5e, with some pretty big books (Deities & Demigods, Epic Level Handbook, MMII) coming out in 2002. And the class books were equally spread out. Masters of the Wild didn't come out until February of 2002. And there were even some noteworthy books slipped in early in 2003, right before 3.5e came out (Arms & Equipment, Fiend Folio, Ghostwalk, MM3, Savage Species).<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Dungeons_%26_Dragons_rulebooks" target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Dungeons_&_Dragons_rulebooks</a>Regardless, if we're going to cast shade at Mearls' statement, "sales" could mean copies shipped to the distributor and stores are there could have been huge stockpiles of unsold books in Amazon warehouses and game stores. Maybe he was speeding hypothetically or speaking about the theoretical "lifetime" of 5e. Maybe it was a typo and he meant to say "<". Maybe his Twitter account could have been hacked by a fan. Maybe he was just outright lying. But the most likely interpretation is like plain one: the 5e PHB sold more copies than the 3.0e PHB. That on August 12th, 2016, just two years into 5e, 5th Edition had sold more Player's Handbooks than 3.0e sold during its three years prior to 3.5e. It's likely selling higher there than other places. But gamers are pretty loyal to their stores. So people with FLGS likely purchase there. There are over 1500 Wizards Play Network stores in North America that run Adventurer's League play. And there are many more stores that would are WPN and sell the books but don't run AL, and FLGS that sell D&D books but aren't WPN stores. Plus additional places to buy, such as board game and comic stores, generic hobby stores, small book stores, some video game stores, and of course chain book stores. That's nice. I wonder what it would take to convince you.Having sales "plateau" means they continue to sell at a steady rate. In this case it has. It's been hovering at the bottom of the "Top 100" for a couple years now. So it plateau-ed, but at a very high sales rate. If everyone who wants a PHB has one, sales won't plateau, they'll steadily drop until they hit a very low level. But that does not seem to be happening. Which suggests that:a) there are a number of lapsed gamers returning at a steady rateb) people are buying replacement books at a steady ratec) lots of new gamers are coming into the hobby at a steady rated) all of the above5e is really striking a cord with a new generation. And there are a lot of new players regularly coming into the hobby. And as more people come in, they tell more people and bring in their friends, and so on. I'm sure the numbers will drop eventually. But that doesn't seem to be happening any time soon. And considering popular video games can sell tens of millions of copies, it's not impossible to peg the potential audience of D&D at three or four million. So D&D 5e *could* still continue to sell, easily passing a million copies sold.After all, there are more gamers out there now - more people in general - and fantasy and RPGs are more accepted. And there's the internet, making buying the books, finding a group, and learning to play easier than ever. People have been saying that for two years now. And it doesn't seem to be happening.WotC settled into a slower three book release schedule when they were expecting the edition to just be a reasonable success. Now it's been a staggering and prolonged hit, it will likely take a HUGE hit to sales to get them to radically change their release schedule. I expect we'll see a campaign setting in place of an adventure or fall accessory eventually. But WotC seems quite happy to go at their own rate rather than get everything out all at once. Giving Dancey the benefit of the doubt and assuming he combined the sales of 3.0 and 3.5, 1 million combined for that edition seems reasonable (and not far off the 850k combined of Mona).  So, again, if 5e has outsold 3e, it should have sold in the range of 650k. In mid-2016. Again, with Amazon sales alone, it's looking at 120,000+ sales for the last year. Plus game stores. That alone put it within range of your 2e numbers. Before FLGS and chain book stores.</blockquote>

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