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3d6 opposed roll probability
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<blockquote data-quote="billd91" data-source="post: 6169654" data-attributes="member: 3400"><p>I'll reiterate that the formula won't work. The denominator (20^2) works for d20 because there are 400 outcomes of rolling two d20s - 20 for the first x 20 for the second = 400. For 3d6 rolls, there are 216 outcomes for just one set alone. When comparing two sets of 3d6 rolls, there are 216^2 (or 6^6) or 46,656 distinct outcomes for those dice. Clearly 18^2 won't cut it. That would work if you were rolling a pair of 1d18 dice that had a uniform probability of every result coming up.</p><p></p><p>To illustrate a bit more, if you were to list all of the outcomes of a 3d6 roll, you could roll 1,1,1 for a value of 3; 6,6,6 for a value of 18; 1,2,1 or 1,1,2, or 2,1,1 for a value of 4, and so on. If you were to actually figure out the numbers, you'd get a table something like this:</p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">Value__#_____probability of rolling that value</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">3______1_____0.00462963</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">4______3_____0.013888889</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">5______6_____0.027777778</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">6_____10_____0.046296296</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">7_____15_____0.069444444</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">8_____21_____0.097222222</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">9_____25_____0.115740741</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">10____27_____0.125</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">11____27_____0.125</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">12____25_____0.115740741</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">13____21_____0.097222222</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">14____15_____0.069444444</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">15____10_____0.046296296</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">16_____6_____0.027777778</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">17_____3_____0.013888889</span></p><p><span style="font-family: 'courier'">18_____1_____0.00462963</span></p><p></p><p>Accounting for all possible outcomes of rolling 3d6, there is exactly one way of getting a 3. There are three ways to get a 4, six ways to roll a 5, ten ways to roll a 6, and so on. At the highest point on the bell curve, you've got 27 ways to come up with a 10 or an 11. So you can see how rolling multiple dice to generate a number really changes the distribution compared to rolling a d20 in which there is exactly one way to come up with any outcome on that die and they all have the same probability of 1/20 = .05.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="billd91, post: 6169654, member: 3400"] I'll reiterate that the formula won't work. The denominator (20^2) works for d20 because there are 400 outcomes of rolling two d20s - 20 for the first x 20 for the second = 400. For 3d6 rolls, there are 216 outcomes for just one set alone. When comparing two sets of 3d6 rolls, there are 216^2 (or 6^6) or 46,656 distinct outcomes for those dice. Clearly 18^2 won't cut it. That would work if you were rolling a pair of 1d18 dice that had a uniform probability of every result coming up. To illustrate a bit more, if you were to list all of the outcomes of a 3d6 roll, you could roll 1,1,1 for a value of 3; 6,6,6 for a value of 18; 1,2,1 or 1,1,2, or 2,1,1 for a value of 4, and so on. If you were to actually figure out the numbers, you'd get a table something like this: [font=courier] Value__#_____probability of rolling that value 3______1_____0.00462963 4______3_____0.013888889 5______6_____0.027777778 6_____10_____0.046296296 7_____15_____0.069444444 8_____21_____0.097222222 9_____25_____0.115740741 10____27_____0.125 11____27_____0.125 12____25_____0.115740741 13____21_____0.097222222 14____15_____0.069444444 15____10_____0.046296296 16_____6_____0.027777778 17_____3_____0.013888889 18_____1_____0.00462963[/font] Accounting for all possible outcomes of rolling 3d6, there is exactly one way of getting a 3. There are three ways to get a 4, six ways to roll a 5, ten ways to roll a 6, and so on. At the highest point on the bell curve, you've got 27 ways to come up with a 10 or an 11. So you can see how rolling multiple dice to generate a number really changes the distribution compared to rolling a d20 in which there is exactly one way to come up with any outcome on that die and they all have the same probability of 1/20 = .05. [/QUOTE]
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