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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Alphastream" data-source="post: 7647867" data-attributes="member: 11365">If we had a dollar for every time someone with deep industry experience got the industry wrong, we could fly around the world... I'm not saying that to slam anyone. The industry is tough. It lacks good business parameters, has very little solid market research, and thus it is easy to make mistakes. I'm not knocking Ryan, but he's one guy and as much as I like his post it raises questions. The history of just about any RPG is one of peril. Reading over Shannon Appelcline's Designers & Dragons, I'm blown away by how the history of TSR is just a series of missteps and good steps, always dancing on the edge of success or ruin. As a gamer it is easy to just think of our own experience, where we enjoy one game, then another. The aggregate is really hard to see. For example, as a gamer I never realized the insane volume of choose-your-own-adventure and how that bust almost ruined TSR. Similarly, it is easy to look at the period from mid-2010 to the end of Q1 2011 and conclude it was a bad year for Wizards. The product lines were floundering, marketing communications were confusing at best, and negativity was pervasive. Then again, I don't know the numbers. That same period shows really strong DDI growth. I would guess times were bad, but none of us really know. Before that time sales could have been really strong (they certainly were when 4E core books were released). After Q1 2011 Wizards seems to really right the ship. While they had relatively few releases, the releases they had in 2011 were incredibly strong - some of the most innovative work we've seen from D&D. Did they sell great? We have no idea. And, let's keep in mind this is at a relatively good time for RPGs and an excellent time for Pathfinder. This doesn't, to me, sound like the demise of D&D. Really, if we are going to see the longest-running RPG out there take some quarters at the #2 spot, is that doom? (How many RPGs would kill for that version of doom?) Is there any real indication that this is perpetual? Has PF solved the question of versions... their releases suggest otherwise. As Ryan said, there is currently no escape from the typical cycle of needing a new version, even for PF.Maybe Wizards is doing terribly. Maybe it is doing great. We don't know. My personal guess is that they are achieving numbers just about any RPG would kill to have, but that those numbers are not good enough for Wizards itself, given its size and goals. That would be why they keep experimenting, changing, and why Legends & Lore exists. But this is just my guess. If you have data one way or the other, I welcome it.</blockquote>

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