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<blockquote data-quote="see" data-source="post: 5461122" data-attributes="member: 10531">Um, no.&nbsp; We know 4e hasn't crashed.&nbsp; But the whole point of a real death spiral (a spiral dive/graveyard spiral) is that it starts slowly and gradually, the plane doesn't look like it's in trouble even though altitude is declining, and the seemingly-reasonable effort to correct what seems like a minor problem actively worsens the situation.D&amp;D may well have entered a death spiral in 2009 and still be in it.&nbsp; Certainly, we don't have conclusive evidence that the spiral exists, but we also have seen no conclusive contrary evidence, either.&nbsp; Saying &quot;Ryan Dancey was wrong in 2009&quot; might be stating a fact.&nbsp; But it might be the equivalent of a skydiver yelling, &quot;See!&nbsp; The parachute failure wasn't a big deal!&nbsp; I've made it 19,000 feet without it or injury!&quot; a mere thousand feet before he hits asphalt head-first.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="see, post: 5461122, member: 10531"] Um, no. We know 4e hasn't [I]crashed[/I]. But the whole point of a real death spiral (a spiral dive/graveyard spiral) is that it starts slowly and gradually, the plane doesn't look like it's in trouble even though altitude is declining, and the seemingly-reasonable effort to correct what seems like a minor problem actively worsens the situation. D&D may well have entered a death spiral in 2009 and still be in it. Certainly, we don't have conclusive evidence that the spiral exists, but we also have seen no conclusive contrary evidence, either. Saying "Ryan Dancey was wrong in 2009" might be stating a fact. But it might be the equivalent of a skydiver yelling, "See! The parachute failure wasn't a big deal! I've made it 19,000 feet without it or injury!" a mere thousand feet before he hits asphalt head-first. [/QUOTE]

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