D&D 4E 4e Gold Rush: What 3rd Party Support Do You Expect?

[Wulf Ratbane]

Given the following assumptions:

1) At least 4-6 "major" companies will pay the 5k fee and publish support materials as soon as possible (including "major" collaborations with smaller outfits);

2) WOTC will NOT exert any control over the types of gaming content the books can contain (that is, they won't ban "splatbooks" outright);

3) WOTC will NOT exert any "flow control" over publication (ie, "You may only publish one covered work under this license every 30 days...")

Which of the following "D&D Support Material" do you expect to see published in print format within that first five months of 4e's release?

 

[Dragonblade]

I see "power/spell" sourcebooks appearing. I see alternate PHBs trying to offer classes that WotC is delaying (like the Druid). I see monster books. I also see adventures, kind of like we saw when 3e first came out.

But all of those products will probably have slick production values and be nice as opposed to the glut we got when 3e first came out.

I expect that when January 2009 comes around the companies who got on board early will have pretty much staked their claim in the physical book market and that publishers who jump on board only after the OGL is free will be mostly relegated to the PDF market unless they ally with one of the big boys.

 

[Dragonblade]

I also predict that product tailored to higher level play (high level adventures, paragon paths, epic destinies) won't appear until 2Q 2009 at the earliest.

 

[Storminator]

If it were me* I'd do a campaign setting, and try to get a lot of players invested in my product line early.

PS

*In reality I won't do anything, but if I were playing with other people's money...

 

[TerraDave]

In the first five months, I am pretty confident on

Introductory Adventure
Adventure Path (begining of)
Missing "Core" Races
Missing "Core" Classes
New Classes
New Races
"Core" Race Treatments
Missing "Core" Monsters
New Monster Manuals
New Paragon/Epic Paths

Over the first 18 months, I am expecting everything in the poll, and more.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

Hmm, well so far it looks like everyone is just voting for the stuff that Clark has expressly stated he'd be doing with Necromancer.

You guys get no prognostication points for that!

 

[Pinotage]

If you're assuming only 4-6 publishers, then there's a limit to what you can publish in five months, although you're working on it for 10. Uptake on 4e is probably going to be fairly quick, but uptake on 3rd party materials might be slower, simply because of the additional monetary expense and people being uncertain about 4e in general.

That said, there's likely to be a lot that those publishers can do. I doubt there'll be new rules since you need quite a good grasp on the existing rules to achieve something. So you're basically going to see converted stuff and adventures. Classes, feats, spells, equipment, races, paragon (not epic) paths, etc.

With the sheer volume of older material available for 'easy' publishing, why would 4e publishers not re-release already written material for the new edition?

Pinotage

 

[delericho]

1) At least 4-6 "major" companies will pay the 5k fee and publish support materials as soon as possible (including "major" collaborations with smaller outfits);

I think this assumption may well prove to be false. Companies like Mongoose and Green Ronin have largely moved to supporting their own OGL (1.0) games, and so would seem to have little motivation to go after the more restrictive OGL (2.0) market. I wouldn't be at all surprised if those "4-6" companies become two or three.

In terms of content, I expect to see mostly adventure material of various sorts, and some of the 'easy' targets - classic monsters, classes and races, and probably books of spells and feats. I would be surprised to see any major campaign setting, or genuine splatbooks, in the first few months.

I'm prepared to be wrong on all counts, of course.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

I doubt there'll be new rules since you need quite a good grasp on the existing rules to achieve something.

Why's that?

What do you think exists this time around to disincentivize publishers from publishing as fast as they can, especially within the early protected competive window, regardless of whether they have a good grasp on the rules or not?

How do you know whether any given product will demonstrate a good grasp of the rules?

How will the retailers know?

Does the 5k fee guarantee quality?

 

[Arnwyn]

I'm wildly guessing about the first 5 months, and voted:
- Introductory Adventure (Wizard's Amulet, Freeport)
- Missing "Core" Races (gnomes, half-orcs, etc.)
- Missing "Core" Classes (monk, druid, etc.)
- New Classes
- New Races
- "Core" Race Treatments ("Dwarves," "Halflings," etc.)
- Spells Compilation (Relics and Rituals)
- Missing "Core" Monsters (Tome of Horrors)
- New Monster Manuals (Monsternomicon, Avadnu)
- Magic Item Compilation

I suspect that's the most they'll be able to do in the first 5 months. I highly doubt there'll be higher level adventures, and certainly not any adventure paths. Upon thinking about it, though, some sort of "Traps" book might be another one due to how wonky/detailed they seem to be in 4e.