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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Jester David" data-source="post: 6277868" data-attributes="member: 37579">ICv2’s “Spring” likely covers January to April, and Summer May-Aug. Unless they just don’t report Quarter 4. Predicting the Spring is easy. Honestly, the order might change but the games are likely going to stay the same. The Summer is harded. Pathfinder is still going strong and has no real competition, so it’ll retain the #1 spot in the Spring despite having few books until the end of the period. In the Summer, Paizo has four full months to sell product including three hardcovers (Inner Sea Gods, Strategy Guide, and Advanced Class Guide). The first comes out in late April so sales will likely be split between Spring and Summer, and the last comes out in late August so it will be split between Summer and Fall.However, Pathfinder is likely reaching saturation: its sales might slip as people decide they have enough content for the game. Even ignoring 3e, PF is the oldest game on the chart. The Spring is going to hurt D&D. There are no more reprints, the adventures are going digital, and distributors are running low on books from older editions so those books are becoming scarcer on store shelves. While D&D will likely spike back up the chart in Summer, it may not hit the #1 spot. D&D will only have weeks to sell D&D5 (excluding the more niche Starter Set). So it might not quite match Pathfinder’s longer sales. A lot of people will no longer buy D&D sight unseen, waiting until initial reviews are out and they can look through a copy in stores. Stores might also be wary and order fewer copies than 3e or 4e: if the game is a hit, it might sell out locally, making reviewing store copies harder. Furthermore, the high price point will push people to buy online rather in stores, which will hurt the ICv2 ranking. This might delay D&D really regaining the #1 spot until Fall. Star Wars is still going strong. They’ve moved from “Edge of the Empire” to “Age of Rebellion”. That Beta will keep the game going strong in 2014 and the release of the hardcover in Q2 (April-June) will help them score some traffic. Given they’ll have months to sell their book before GenCon, it’s possible the game might even manage to retain the #2 spot against D&D. Although, Paizo is changing up their Spring releases, with a campaign-specific god book and a book aimed at new players, while FFG is releasing a Rebel Alliance specific Star Wars product that doubles as a starting book for the RPG. It’s not impossible that Star Wars might edge out Pathfinder for the #1 slot in the Spring.Fate Core is still going strong, and building some buzz. There are more and more games using the system. It’s the rules lite alternative to the OGL, which makes it appealing. It’s very likely to retain a spot on the chart, but it might drop to #4 or #5 depending on if it continues to sell at the same rate or reaches saturation. Iron Kingdoms has some good staying power, tied to Warmachine and Hordes. It’s been present on the charts for some time. It’s not a game that’s really on my radar so I’m not sure if it will hold steady, surge, or drop. I have no idea of it has releases planned. But the Warmachine is the #3 on ICv2’s non-collectible mini game chart while Hordes is #5. So sales of both likely overlap, pushing up the related RPG. The one game I see hitting the chart is 13th Age. It’s high on the ENWorld Hot Games chart, ahead of Numenera and many other name games. It might be able to push out Fate Core if that game spikes and then drops. But that depends on if Pelgrane Press can keep the books in stores; they’re a smaller publisher, so printing the books is slow and expensive. Not that Numenera might not surprise people. As word of mouth spreads and the game keeps selling it might surprise everyone with its popularity. I see the Spring 2014 being:#1 Pathfinder#2 Star Wars#3 Iron Kingdoms#4 Fate Core#5 Dungeons & DragonsIf Age of Rebellion drops in April, Star Wars might sneak into #1. Fate might also drop, being replaced by 13th Age, likely in the #5 slot with D&D moving to #4.I’m guessing Summer 2014 will be:#1 Pathfinder#2 Dungeons & Dragons#3 Star Wars#4 Iron Kingdoms#5 (Wild Card) But it won’t shock me if D&D or Star Wars sneak into the #1 slot. Fate or 13th Age might be able to snag a #5 slot. Or something else.</blockquote>

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