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<blockquote data-quote="Pickles JG" data-source="post: 4701840" data-attributes="member: 61501">50% is a rule of thumb used by people calculating average damage or comparing powers etc. Equivalent level monsters are hit about 60% of the time at low levels &amp; as your typical encounter is level +1 to level +3 you will hit those monsters about 50% of the time. (Or alternatively people use 50% as its easier than 60%)&nbsp;The maths is derived from the monster recommended defences &amp; attack values in the DMG together with PC likely stats. A monster has&nbsp; non AC defences equal to level +12, so 13 at first level. A typical PC has 18 in their attack stat (+/-2) so +4 to hit.&nbsp; This hits on 9 = 60%. Monster AC is two points higher which you get with a +2 proficiency weapon.&nbsp; (The designers' intent is inferred from this basic calculation &amp; the fact that everything scales with level (almost..))&nbsp;This applies to PC defences - a monster attacks non AC defence with level +3 ie +4 at first, the same as the PC, so the average non AC defence we would expect to be 13 to give 60%. NADs are all over the place but not a million miles away on average (eg non human with 18 16 14 in his defence stats &amp; +2 to one of them is likely to be 14 15 12 defences or similar - a little better than a monster. I have seen 17 12 10 though) &nbsp;The skilll check thing came from p42 of the DMG &amp; has been errataed in the DMG update pdf &amp; is now more like 75% - but you have to get several successes before 3 failures. There is comment in one of the podcasts about it.&nbsp; (I think it was originally targeted at 50% for &quot;experts&quot; &amp; then was redone to make it 50% for average characters - so experts have a very easy time.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Pickles JG, post: 4701840, member: 61501"] 50% is a rule of thumb used by people calculating average damage or comparing powers etc. Equivalent level monsters are hit about 60% of the time at low levels & as your typical encounter is level +1 to level +3 you will hit those monsters about 50% of the time. (Or alternatively people use 50% as its easier than 60%) The maths is derived from the monster recommended defences & attack values in the DMG together with PC likely stats. A monster has non AC defences equal to level +12, so 13 at first level. A typical PC has 18 in their attack stat (+/-2) so +4 to hit. This hits on 9 = 60%. Monster AC is two points higher which you get with a +2 proficiency weapon. (The designers' intent is inferred from this basic calculation & the fact that everything scales with level (almost..)) This applies to PC defences - a monster attacks non AC defence with level +3 ie +4 at first, the same as the PC, so the average non AC defence we would expect to be 13 to give 60%. NADs are all over the place but not a million miles away on average (eg non human with 18 16 14 in his defence stats & +2 to one of them is likely to be 14 15 12 defences or similar - a little better than a monster. I have seen 17 12 10 though) The skilll check thing came from p42 of the DMG & has been errataed in the DMG update pdf & is now more like 75% - but you have to get several successes before 3 failures. There is comment in one of the podcasts about it. (I think it was originally targeted at 50% for "experts" & then was redone to make it 50% for average characters - so experts have a very easy time. [/QUOTE]

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