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General Tabletop Discussion
D&D Older Editions
5e Play, 1e Play, and the Immersive Experience
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<blockquote data-quote="Ovinomancer" data-source="post: 7539830" data-attributes="member: 16814"><p>Sorry, just a side bit here -- this concept of consciousness made the science reporting rounds recently again, so it's fresh, but it's a theory -- in the hypothesis not law sense -- that has no experimental evidence to back it up. The earlier referenced study that says we decide unconsciously and then rationalize the result consciously was from a 10 year old study on 14 people with very bad r squared but a wee p. (That means, for example, that they had a maybe 95% confidence that the observed effect explained 30% of the effect. In this case, they claimed about a 60% chance of predicting the choice. Keep in mind a coin flip is 50%.) It's also had it's methodology strongly criticized as not supporting it's conclusion.</p><p></p><p>Just saying that you shouldn't take this kind of science reporting stuff as gospel. Science reporting is almost universally bad -- the reporters have no idea what they're doing, almost never look for opposing criticism, and are incentivized to provide catchy stories. The reality is that the tools we had at our disposal are about as good as the first telescopes -- we discovered moons of Jupiter, mountains on the moon, and the phases of Jupiter, but also confirmed that everything went around the Earth because the stars didn't move. We're in about the same place: our tools are insufficent to overcome our ignorance.</p><p></p><p>Maybe the brain does work that way, and maybe it does, there's no strong evidence either way, and there's a lot of clever guessing in the meantime. </p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Ovinomancer, post: 7539830, member: 16814"] Sorry, just a side bit here -- this concept of consciousness made the science reporting rounds recently again, so it's fresh, but it's a theory -- in the hypothesis not law sense -- that has no experimental evidence to back it up. The earlier referenced study that says we decide unconsciously and then rationalize the result consciously was from a 10 year old study on 14 people with very bad r squared but a wee p. (That means, for example, that they had a maybe 95% confidence that the observed effect explained 30% of the effect. In this case, they claimed about a 60% chance of predicting the choice. Keep in mind a coin flip is 50%.) It's also had it's methodology strongly criticized as not supporting it's conclusion. Just saying that you shouldn't take this kind of science reporting stuff as gospel. Science reporting is almost universally bad -- the reporters have no idea what they're doing, almost never look for opposing criticism, and are incentivized to provide catchy stories. The reality is that the tools we had at our disposal are about as good as the first telescopes -- we discovered moons of Jupiter, mountains on the moon, and the phases of Jupiter, but also confirmed that everything went around the Earth because the stars didn't move. We're in about the same place: our tools are insufficent to overcome our ignorance. Maybe the brain does work that way, and maybe it does, there's no strong evidence either way, and there's a lot of clever guessing in the meantime. [/QUOTE]
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