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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Manbearcat" data-source="post: 8153655" data-attributes="member: 6696971">Couple things on this:1)  I don't agree with your paragraph 1.  With respect, that is a very unexamined (c'est la vie or "only focus on what you control") approach to evaluating the impact of referee error on (a) the newly perturbed gamestate, (b) the now modified trajectory of play due to that perturbation, and (c) the ultimate result.  It also presupposed and smuggles in (d) a balancing kludge ("the make-up call") that cannot remotely be assumed in any given instance of competition/play.There are many factors that have to be assessed and evaluated in order to even begin to have an opinion on any given game (and they're all different), let alone games broadly:* How swingy are the consequences of a singular instance of referee error upon the present gamestate?  In some situations we have advanced metrics that will tell us just how deeply swingy referee error is.  A little known fact in baseball is how PROFOUNDLY swingy (with respect to the gamestate) a singular umpire error is in what some may consider a relatively innocuous situation:The 1:1 count.Do you know what the difference is between a 2:1 count and a 1:2 count?  An UNBELIEVABLE .927 OPS vs a .428 OPS. Batting Average more than doubles, On Base Percentage doubles exactly, Slugging Percentage (power numbers) more than doubles.  Baseball is PROFOUNDLY sensitive to referee error here.  And how many 1:1 counts (that will subsequently be 2:1 or 1:2 counts) happen during a 9 inning game?  Yeah.  A ton.3 referee errors in 1:1 counts alone (forget errors in other counts, forget Safe/Out calls, forget Balk calls, etc) will have huge reverberating effects on play.  And those errors only become enormously compounded with runners on base.  Win Shares hinge hugely on these calls.And its not just the 1st order effect of these missed calls.  A single 1:1 count can reverberate HUGELY with intangible effects (and not just for this game!)!  Should have been 1:2 vs 2:1?  Well now, there is a big chance that Pitch Count is going to increase for this Pitcher.  If this was going to be the last out of the inning, it could suddenly spiral into 10, 20, even 40 extra pitches!  Suddenly, this pitcher is pulled, unavailable for days, you're exhausting your bullpen early.  That exhaustion in this game will have the knock-on effects of (a) disallowing you to dictate match-ups later in the game and (b) exhaust your staff and render one or more Pitchers unavailable for tomorrows game 2 (or 3)!There are tons of examples like this in sports (I could go over a giant litany of them in American Football).  Their propensity to reverberate/compound/create new adversity (maybe not even in this game!) that otherwise wouldn't be there is MASSIVELY higher than some idealistic notion of them "cancelling out."   2)  On your "in RPG terms", you're describing a GM marionetting a gamestate back and forth.  This isn't Force cancelling out (this is before even going through the 1:1 count analogue I did above...which you should do for any TTRPG gamestate...particularly complex, intensive resource-management games like D&D or Blades) and therefore liberating the game from being hugely distorted by GM signal.  Its Force AMPLIFICIATION!  Its INCREASING GM SIGNAL!</blockquote>

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