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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Rystil Arden" data-source="post: 2404471" data-attributes="member: 29014">(OOC: [SBLOCK]The criticals don't add as much as it might initially seem due to low probability.  Let's continue to consider the edge case of 14 strength d6 weapon with 19-20/x2 that hits on a 15 (lower strength and the arrow is always better, higher dice and the weapon is) vs two-handing the silver arrow that hits on a 19 (note that Juliana's flail only crits on a 20, so this is actually being overly optimistic for the d6 weapon).  Here is the exact honest-to-goodness expected value, including criticals, as best as I can do based on my 6.041 class (MIT's Probability Course).  Two-handed d6 weapon with 19-20/x2: E[Damage from 18 or below] = 4/20 * 10 / 6 = .3333 damage per round, E[Damage from 19 and 20] = 1 / 10 * 6 / 20 * 8 + 1 / 10 * 14 / 20 * 10 / 6 = .24 + .11666666666  Total Expected Value =.69   Two-handed d6 weapon with 20/x2: .41666666 + .12 + .0583333333 = .5949999Silvery arrow: E[Damage] = 1/10 * 9/10 * 5.5 + 1/10 * 1/10 * 11 = .605So...the arrow beats a d6 /x2 and loses to a d6 19-20/x2 weapon with a couple of important observations:#1: A huge amount of the average damage comes from criticals considering how infrequent they are.  This should be pretty upsetting, as it indicates that without crits, expected damage is pretty dismal.#2: Expected damage is really awful even with crits.  Based on that expected damage, loss was pretty much assured--and we did worse than the expected damage too thanks to IC's hatred <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f641.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":(" title="Frown    :("  data-smilie="3"data-shortname=":(" />  To see just how bad our expected damage is, compare it to the wererats' expected damage and they should be mowing through us unopposed exactly as they are.#3: It is very close here, and with the scarcity in difference (.1 per round at most), it isn't worth the action to switch weapons between any of these three)[/SBLOCK]</blockquote>

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