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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Iron Sky" data-source="post: 4581223" data-attributes="member: 60965">The monster creation guidelines in the DMG suggest about level+3 to level+7 to hit vs defences. So, say it averages about level+5. Our group is level 9, so monsters should have about a +14 vs AC, about +12 vs other defences. Our group also rolled our stats rather than point buy, but I'll adjust those down. Elven TWF Ranger: AC 25, Fort 21, Ref 23, Will 18. Hit vs AC ~50%, Fort ~60%, Ref ~50%, Will ~75%Halfling Dagger Rogue: AC 22, Fort 19, Ref 21, Will 19. Hit vs AC ~65%, Fort ~70%, Ref ~60%, Will ~70%Dragonborn Melee+Healing Cleric: AC 22, Fort 20, Ref 19, Will 22. Hit vs AC ~65%, Fort ~55%, Ref 70%, Wil ~55%Half-Elf Fey Warlock: AC 17, Fort 20, Ref 18, Will 22. Hit vs AC 90%!, Fort ~65%, Ref ~75%, Will ~55% Average AC: 22, other defenses all: 20 - interesting that, averages out to AC = Level +13, Other defenses = level +11.  So by our average vs the monsters average, they have about a 60% chance of hitting, by design, assuming our group's defenses are about average. Best case scenario, monsters have about a 50% chance to hit. Worst case, they have a 90%(warlock AC). We also have no defenders, whom I'm assuming will be rocking the best defenses, but I'd imagine they'd still be no better than 40% on their best defense. So, yes, when monsters of your level or higher attack, on average they will hit. Heck, even with monsters at level -2 (lowest they recommend parties face), they'll still hit most of the time. In practice, it feels like we get hit most of the time, but not all the time. That may in-part be due to our DM's usually horrible rolling however. He's got two modes: "Average 5" and "Crit-a-round". Seems to be nothing in between.</blockquote>

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