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<blockquote data-quote="FireLance" data-source="post: 4237658" data-attributes="member: 3424">Just looking at the additional skill challenge provided for Keep on the Shadowfell, it seems like the PCs only have a slim chance of beating it.[SBLOCK]The primary skills for the challenge are Arcana (DC 22) and Religion (DC 22) and the PCs have to accumulate 8 successes before they get 4 failures. The character with the best chance of succeeding on the skill checks will only have a modifier of +10 to each by level 3, unless there are other ways to boost skill checks in the adventure. This means that the character only has a 45% chance of success for each skill check, and is thus most likely to score fewer successes than failures. Running the numbers, the chance of him actually succeeding is 6.1%, while the chance of failure is 93.9%.[/SBLOCK]Of course, this assumes that 1 successful skill check = 1 success, and a failed skill check = 1 failure. I suppose it is possible that you only get 1 failure if you fail the skill check by 5 or more, or you normally get 2 successes for a successful skill check, but if you are willing to score only 1 success, you can lower the DC by 5.Otherwise, attempting skill challenges seems pointless for the PCs, at least in this specific case.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="FireLance, post: 4237658, member: 3424"] Just looking at the additional skill challenge provided for Keep on the Shadowfell, it seems like the PCs only have a slim chance of beating it. [SBLOCK]The primary skills for the challenge are Arcana (DC 22) and Religion (DC 22) and the PCs have to accumulate 8 successes before they get 4 failures. The character with the best chance of succeeding on the skill checks will only have a modifier of +10 to each by level 3, unless there are other ways to boost skill checks in the adventure. This means that the character only has a 45% chance of success for each skill check, and is thus most likely to score [I]fewer[/I] successes than failures. Running the numbers, the chance of him actually succeeding is 6.1%, while the chance of failure is 93.9%.[/SBLOCK]Of course, this assumes that 1 successful skill check = 1 success, and a failed skill check = 1 failure. I suppose it is possible that you only get 1 failure if you fail the skill check by 5 or more, or you normally get 2 successes for a successful skill check, but if you are willing to score only 1 success, you can lower the DC by 5. Otherwise, attempting skill challenges seems pointless for the PCs, at least in this specific case. [/QUOTE]

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