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Are we at, or close, to peak D&D? Again?
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<blockquote data-quote="Mercurius" data-source="post: 8236622" data-attributes="member: 59082"><p>As others (on the first page, the only one I read) have said, a lot depends on the next couple years and the quality--and reception--of the film(s) and show. It could go very well or very poorly.</p><p></p><p>My biggest concern is that they try too hard to emulate the Marvel films. Fun and campy can more easily be pulled off if the protagonists are wearing brightly colorful suits and in the modern day; not so much in a pre-industrial fantasy world. I think they would do well to look at the fantasy media that has done well: namely, the LotR trilogy and Game of Thrones. Both succeeded partially because of big budgets and quality actors, but the key element was perhaps that they were faithful to the material and realized that fantasy is best done when it feels organic to the world it is set in. Both were dripping in the atmosphere of the worlds they were set in. Whatever criticisms Tolkienistas have with Peter Jackson's first trilogy, few would say that it wasn't at least heartfelt and well-made fan fiction that was about as good as a mass-consumed version of Tolkien's vision could be. Even the humor of GoT was very organic to the world itself - it made sense and didn't involve any eye-winking at the audience (of course, having GRRM involved didn't hurt).</p><p></p><p>So the key would be to tell stories with characters that feel organic to the Forgotten Realms (or wherever it is set) - not modern day people doing a quasi-MCU impression in fantasy trappings. The problem is that there is no singular vision or definitive text (or world) of D&D. Unless they're recreating one of the book series--and from what I gather, they're not--they have to come up with someone new, that embodies the "essence of D&D." </p><p></p><p>So the jury is out and, to be frank, I'm not optimistic. With a glimmer of hope, though.</p><p></p><p>All that said, everything moves in cycles. The question is not whether D&D will decline in popularity--it will--but rather two-fold: One, has it reached its peak yet? We don't know and won't know until it starts declining, and we haven't seen signs of that yet. At all. It probably can't get much more popular without a multi-media franchise; two, how far will it fall when it inevitably falls? That is, what will the post-peak plateau look like? Will it look more like Roger Federer over the last ten years (not as good as his very best, but still pretty darn good) or latter day John McEnroe (falling from best in the world to outside of the top 10)? Or if you prefer football, Tom Brady in his 40s or Peyton Manning in his last year? (Hey, he somewhat still won the Super Bowl!).</p><p></p><p>I would guess that the first question will be answered in the next 2-3 years, after we see how the film and tv series do, and how they impact the game's popularity. The second question will take another couple years after that, once the dust settles. I will say that there's a good chance that whatever post-peak plateau it falls to will likely be much higher than pre-5E popularity...unless they find some way to screw things up.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mercurius, post: 8236622, member: 59082"] As others (on the first page, the only one I read) have said, a lot depends on the next couple years and the quality--and reception--of the film(s) and show. It could go very well or very poorly. My biggest concern is that they try too hard to emulate the Marvel films. Fun and campy can more easily be pulled off if the protagonists are wearing brightly colorful suits and in the modern day; not so much in a pre-industrial fantasy world. I think they would do well to look at the fantasy media that has done well: namely, the LotR trilogy and Game of Thrones. Both succeeded partially because of big budgets and quality actors, but the key element was perhaps that they were faithful to the material and realized that fantasy is best done when it feels organic to the world it is set in. Both were dripping in the atmosphere of the worlds they were set in. Whatever criticisms Tolkienistas have with Peter Jackson's first trilogy, few would say that it wasn't at least heartfelt and well-made fan fiction that was about as good as a mass-consumed version of Tolkien's vision could be. Even the humor of GoT was very organic to the world itself - it made sense and didn't involve any eye-winking at the audience (of course, having GRRM involved didn't hurt). So the key would be to tell stories with characters that feel organic to the Forgotten Realms (or wherever it is set) - not modern day people doing a quasi-MCU impression in fantasy trappings. The problem is that there is no singular vision or definitive text (or world) of D&D. Unless they're recreating one of the book series--and from what I gather, they're not--they have to come up with someone new, that embodies the "essence of D&D." So the jury is out and, to be frank, I'm not optimistic. With a glimmer of hope, though. All that said, everything moves in cycles. The question is not whether D&D will decline in popularity--it will--but rather two-fold: One, has it reached its peak yet? We don't know and won't know until it starts declining, and we haven't seen signs of that yet. At all. It probably can't get much more popular without a multi-media franchise; two, how far will it fall when it inevitably falls? That is, what will the post-peak plateau look like? Will it look more like Roger Federer over the last ten years (not as good as his very best, but still pretty darn good) or latter day John McEnroe (falling from best in the world to outside of the top 10)? Or if you prefer football, Tom Brady in his 40s or Peyton Manning in his last year? (Hey, he somewhat still won the Super Bowl!). I would guess that the first question will be answered in the next 2-3 years, after we see how the film and tv series do, and how they impact the game's popularity. The second question will take another couple years after that, once the dust settles. I will say that there's a good chance that whatever post-peak plateau it falls to will likely be much higher than pre-5E popularity...unless they find some way to screw things up. [/QUOTE]
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